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1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

1 evaluación del impacto de la implementacion de un plan de partos ...

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22 -.115 -1.26 ** -.131 -1.64 **23 .010 .11 * -.033 -.41 *24 .040 .43 * -.032 -.40 *Section 4Mo<strong><strong>de</strong>l</strong> Forecasting for Time Series Variable Y = VacasenProd: NEWLY IDENTIFIED VARIABLE X1 = I~L00030 1997/ 6 LEVELSection 5MODEL COMPONENT LAG COEFF STANDARD P T# (BOP) ERROR VALUE VALUE1 CONSTANT 1.492 Autoregressive-Factor # 1 1 .9823 Autoregressive-Factor # 2 2 -.1844 3 -.521INPUT SERIES X1 I~L00030 1997/ 6LEVEL5 Omega (input) -Factor # 3 0 -13.5Y(T) = 47.307+[X1(T)][(- 13.5355 )]+ [(1- .982B** 1)(1+ .184B** 2+ .521B** 3)]**-1 [A(T)]Section 6PLOT OF THE OBSERVED (ACTUAL) & THE FORECAST SERIESGRAPH KEYA = VacasenProdF = FORECASTSDATE ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++1995/ 1 A 32.0001995/ 2 A 32.0001995/ 3 A 28.0001995/ 4 A 29.0001995/ 5 A 29.0001995/ 6 A 29.0001995/ 7 A 28.0001995/ 8 A 26.0001995/ 9 A 25.0001995/ 10 A 22.0001995/ 11 A 23.0001995/ 12 A 26.0001996/ 1 A 26.0001996/ 2 A 28.0001996/ 3 A 28.0001996/ 4 A 26.0001996/ 5 A 26.0001996/ 6 A 29.0001996/ 7 A 33.0001996/ 8 A 34.0001996/ 9 A 35.0001996/ 10 A 33.0001996/ 11 A 28.000187

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