De kwetsbaarheid van het Europese landbouw- en voedselsysteem ...

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is apparently confident that any shortfalls can be easily filled by purchases on the world market. But this could turn out to be a miscalculation in an era of increasing geopolitics. A better option would be a no-regret policy, where the EU also takes account of other scenarios besides continuing liberalisation. Such a policy implies that the EU would restore the previous buffers. This is not intended to restore the controversial income policy for farmers, but as a measure to cope with shortages. For the first year of scarcity, grain and feed stockpiles would be a suitable buffer; for a possible second year, set-aside land would offer a solution. Another possibility would be an area of extensively used arable land and grassland. An additional advantage of such buffers is that they can provide significant benefits in terms of environmental quality and biodiversity. The private sector can also be held responsible for buffers. The EU would make agreements with companies in the food chain about maintaining minimum inventories. However, this is in direct conflict with their pursuit of just-in-time delivery. A compulsory inventory, such as existed until recently for the sugar industry, can also be reserved as an option. In a broader context, the EU could encourage businesses in the food chain to increase their resilience to feed scarcity, from both a biological and an operational perspective. The intensive animal husbandry sector in the Netherlands is relatively vulnerable due to its dependence on borrowed capital. Moreover, the resilience to livestock diseases could be increased by developing new vaccines (especially marker vaccines and vaccines against diseases for which a vaccine is still lacking) and by prescribing buffer capacity on livestock farms, slaughterhouses and rendering plants. By means of preventive policy and an adequate policy response, the EU – in case of scarcity of animal feed or a large-scale epidemic of an animal disease – could reduce severe shocks in production and prices, and consequently limit the damage to the sector, vulnerable groups of European consumers and food-importing developing countries. Developing countries For developing countries, more policy is obviously required. The EU and the Netherlands can help by making their food supply more shock resistant. They have already started doing so by putting agriculture higher on their development agendas. The Netherlands has rightly established a link between food security and climate change. Other options are the following: • In the WTO, every country should retain the right to protect its domestic food production against rapid growth in imports. During the Doha round, that was a break point, particularly between India and USA. At least as important are the already overly rigid loan conditions of the World Bank and IMF on this point, which should be relaxed. • Make the WTO rules more scarcity resistant. In particular, food-exporting countries should be allowed to retain the right to reduce exports during times of high domestic prices, but within certain limits. This also applies to the EU. In this way, the market would remain predictable, and this could in turn help to prevent panic buying, trade policy anarchy, domino effects, excessive price fluctuations and unnecessary stockpiling. • Make global agreements to prevent destabilising forms of speculation (especially from the financial sector) on agricultural futures markets. This can be done through transparency and through regulation where necessary. • World-wide, coordinate stockpiles as well as reserve production capacity through land set-aside schemes and/or flexible blending obligations for biofuels. XI
• Make global agreements to stabilise the level of investment in agriculture at a sufficiently high level. Although the crisis of 2007/08 was partly the result of excessively low investment, during the years to come there is a small risk of overinvestment leading to overproduction and low prices; as a result, history could repeat itself. Investments should not only focus on technology, but especially on strengthening institutions, such as land rights and access of small farmers to credit and expertise. • Introduce and monitor compliance with adequate codes of conduct for land grabbing and biofuels, both of which affect local food security. Political opportunities This report and advice link up with the ongoing Dutch national programmes on National Security and Scarcity and Transition. Internationally, the report and advice anticipate the forthcoming reform of the CAP, the forthcoming conferences of the G20, the regulation of commodity markets and the final phase of the Doha Round of the WTO. These opportunities must be seized to make the food systems of Europe (including the Netherlands) and developing countries more shock resistant. XII
Page 1 and 2: De kwetsbaarheid van het Europese l
Page 4 and 5: Inhoud ____________________________
Page 6 and 7: Optie 2. Voorschrijven buffercapaci
Page 8: De kwetsbaarheid van het Europese l
Page 12 and 13: Samenvatting rapport en advies ____
Page 14 and 15: van ondervoeding door gebrek aan ij
Page 16 and 17: schaarste, braakgelegde grond voor
Page 18 and 19: Summary of report and advice ______
Page 20 and 21: for lower income groups, especially
Page 24 and 25: 1. Inleiding ______________________
Page 26 and 27: Recente ontwikkelingen Na medio 200
Page 28: We bezien achtereenvolgens: • een
Page 31 and 32: egio is het weer weinig stabiel - z
Page 33 and 34: onder energie, tarwe, soja en maïs
Page 35 and 36: Klimaatverandering De toename van d
Page 37 and 38: Verlies biodiversiteit Wereldwijd i
Page 39 and 40: Daarnaast heeft het Platform een tw
Page 41 and 42: • Trends als klimaatverandering,
Page 43 and 44: Box 4.1 Corporate governance voedse
Page 45 and 46: Box 4.2 Cyberwars Volgens de secret
Page 47 and 48: Figuur 4.2 De belangrijkste droogte
Page 49 and 50: Zuid Afrika zijn ook die resistenti
Page 51 and 52: Box 4.4 Wat is een relevante kans o
Page 53 and 54: Groter, hoewel niet te kwantificere
Page 55 and 56: Box 4.5 Wereldwijde effecten van de
Page 57 and 58: Box 4.6 Kan Nederland zichzelf voed
Page 59 and 60: Box 5.1 Het gehanteerde indicatieve
Page 61 and 62: Maar ook zonder insleep van ziekten
Page 63 and 64: uitmonden in de Franse Revolutie in
Page 65 and 66: Belangrijkste resultaten: • Al in
Page 67 and 68: Relative Quantities Relative Prices
Page 69 and 70: Een mortaliteit van 10% per kwartaa
Page 71 and 72: Milk Beef 5 5 4.5 4.5 P ri ce r ela
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Als de prijzen sterk stijgen draagt
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• Veehouders gaan ruwvoer winnen
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Box 6.1 Lessen uit de financiële c
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edrijven gaan opbieden tegen kapita
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Box 6.3 EU Landbouwbeleid Het Gemee
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7. Opties om kwetsbaarheden te verm
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iedt weinig ruimte voor prijsstabil
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heeft een ca. 10% hogere opbrengst
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Voor het overige is de keus tussen
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Box 7.4 Energiegewassen en het mili
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Optie 6. Diermeel weer selectief to
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vleesvervangers op plantaardige bas
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Optie 2. Intensivering beleid om in
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• fokkerij en selectie van varken
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• private opslag. Interventie moe
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helpt weinig als er al weinig lange
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een klein deel van het areaal grasl
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gunstig effect is op het inkomen va
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tengewone schade dekt van regen, dr
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Voorzorgsmaatregelen voor tweede ja
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De EU heeft verschillende mogelijkh
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wel door de hele EU kunnen worden v
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Responscapaciteit en respons Ook in
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mineralen vergen en veel minder emi
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Figuur 8.2 Aantal voedselrellen als
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Box 8.1 Land grabbing: kansen en ri
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Box 8.2 Verwaarlozing landbouw in A
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transportsector diende dan het nood
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Box 8.3 Effecten van kredietvoorwaa
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Box 8.4 Speculatie: vloek, zegen of
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• 80-90% van de handel vindt plaa
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In de VS heeft president Obama in 2
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116
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2. Kwetsbaarheid EU landbouw voor e
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9. Gevolgen vulkaanuitbarsting Een
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als in de steden. Boeren die netto-
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omvangrijke programma’s en geldst
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Advies in hoofdlijnen 1. De Europes
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Adviezen EU Landbouwbeleid Advies 1
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- regulering van de praktijk van su
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- ontwikkeling van veestapels met e
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Box Onderzoeksvragen voor de kennis
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136
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Main points of this advice 1. The E
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Recommendations EU Agricultural Pol
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The effect of such a discouragement
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• at the European level, promote
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Box Research questions for the know
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148
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150
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Ger Roebeling Carin Rougoor Wouter
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