Organised Crime & Crime Prevention - what works? - Scandinavian ...

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NSfK´s 40. forskerseminar, Espoo, Finland 1998 n=103; psychotic; 73, of this 42 Schizophrenic; non-psychotic: 30 Kofoed-Nielsen, H. and Odgaard, K: Kriminalpsykiatrisk Undersøgelse. Ufl 1983, 145, 1241 - 1245 Forensic Patients < 30 years, 01.01.78 - 31.12.87, Copenhagen City n=87; psychotic; 71, of this 57 Schizophrenic; non-psychotic: 16 Jørgensen, Eva F. m.fl.: Unge med behandlingsdom i København. Ufl 1993, 155, 3006-3009 Forensic Patients, 01.06.87, whole country n=573; psychotic; 459, of this 282 Schizophrenic; non-psychotic: 114 Lund, J.; Retspsykiatriske patienter. Ufl 1988, 150, 1209-1212 Forensic Patients, 01.03.91, KAS Nordvang, dept. R n=38; psychotic; 32, of this 25 Schizophrenic; non-psychotic: 6 Hasle, N-J and L.E. Eplov: Retspsykiatriske patienter - diagnose, kriminalitet og sanktion. Ufl 1994, 156, 4683 - 4689 Forensic Patients, 03.1.92, whole country n=690; psychotic; 521, of this 335 Schizophrenic; non-psychotic: 169 Kramp, P.: Registerundersrgelsen, unpublished. Another explanation of the increasing prevalence of forensic patients could be that the duration of the sanctions stately increase. If so the constant input of new forensic patients, would cause an increasing prevalence, because the patients remain longer and longer in the system. In Denmark sentence to psychiatric treatment is time unlimited; the sanction is abolished by a court order. It has been argued that the prosecution for various reasons do not bring these cases for the court whereby the patients remain longer and longer in the system. There does not exist data which allows an examination of this possibility for the period 1980 to 1987, but from 1987 the monthly intake and discharge of patients for each county is known. Figure 5 shows the yearly intake for the whole country for the years 1989 to 1995 and correspondingly figure 6 shows the yearly discharge of forensic patients for the same years. The intake rate, or the incident rate, is estimated to 4.3% per year and the discharge rate to 4.3% per year. These two rates being equal supports the hypothesis that the duration of sanctions has been stabled during the considered years. The average duration of a sanction can be estimated to around 4 years, so the considered period is in the shortest to cash up any change in duration time. On the other hand the pictures give no support to any hypothesis of an increasing duration time of sanctions. Recently it has been argued by Olsen and Ravn ,1998, that this argument does not hold. However, the arguments of Olsen and Ravn are in the authors point of view incorrect. As this discussion is very technical it is omitted from the present paper and interested can look it up in Gabrielsen,1998. In conclusion there is no support for the hypothesis that an increasing number of forensic patients can be explained by an increasing duration time of the sanctions. 174
NSfK´s 40. forskerseminar, Espoo, Finland 1998 Finally, the reduction in the number of psychiatric beds could be a possible explanation of the increasing criminality among the mentally ill. As mentioned earlier it is possible to collect monthly data on the number of forensic patients in each county from 1980 until 1997. Furthermore, it is possible to collect data on the number of disposable psychiatric beds in each county. Also it is possible to obtain the number of occupied beds, i.e. the number of consumed beds. These numbers are received from The Institute of Psychiatric Demography in Aarhus. During the period 1980 to 1997 a dramatic change has taken place in the mental health care system. Back in the 1980 we still had the large mental hospitals, whose patients were not only from the local county, but also from the neighbour-counties. During two decades the mental health care system has been reorganized into community mental health care and social support to psychiatric patients. In Denmark a substantial part of this reorganization has consisted in a transfer of resources from the large mental hospitals into community mental health care. The reorganization implied or included a close down of psychiatric beds in the order of 55%. However, a reorganization of a naturally grown system adapted to the increasing need of mental health care into a “from above” planned system of local community health care, does not take place without expenses. The needs from the real world seldomly fits into the planed needs. Thus, a radical reorganization should be expected to be reflected within different areas of the mental health care. However, the speed of the reorganization of the mental health care system differed between the counties. This gives us an opportunity to consider the reorganization as a quasi experimental setting, in which the counties are the experimental units and “the speed of reorganization” is the intervention and the growth rate of forensic patients is the outcome. It should noted that from 1980 until today which is the study period, there has been no changes <strong>what</strong> so ever concerning the Danish registration of mentally abnormal offenders; there has been no changes in diagnostic criteria used by forensic psychiatrists; no changes in how the prosecution administrates the rules of mental abnormal criminals and no changes in other part of the system dealing with forensic patients. The fact, that the whole system has remained unchanged in our study period, is of course very important, because new legislation or other changes could influence the number of patients. Furthermore, the Penal code is the same for the whole country covering all 15 counties, and as previously mentioned, the 175
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Organised Crime & Crime Prevention
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Rådsmedlemmer: Flemming Balvig, Da
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ISBN 87-987103-0-3
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