Organised Crime & Crime Prevention - what works? - Scandinavian ...

NSfK´s 40. forskerseminar, Espoo, Finland 1998
3.2.1 How can we know if a prevention plan will work?
Criminal events are concentrated in time and place. Some potential crime targets are
disproportionally victimized. A relatively small group of offender commit a significant
number of criminal acts.
Preventive efforts directed with these statements in mind are based on reality, and has thus a
greater chance of success than any proposal ignoring the above facts. The next step is to
consider the policy theory and the method of implementation. We know what behavior we
wish to prevent, where and when it typically occurs etcetera.
The closer to the potential criminal event the preventing efforts are directed, and the shorter
the chain of implementation, the better are the chances of successful intervention, other things
being equal.
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Figure from Ekblom 1994 p 212
When we consider the possible occurrence of criminal events as part of a sequence of
interrelated circumstances, and also consider the process of implementing crime prevention
initiatives as acts taken with the ultimate aim of influencing the decision-making processes of
would-be offenders, it leads us to two conclusions.
First, that preventive intervention that occurs early in the causal chain leading towards
potential criminal events (eg Societal reforms, programs for troubled youth, social programs)
will affect a large number of people and will, if they are effective, lead to long-term reduction
of people’s propensity to make criminal choices and thus to a reduction of the crime level.
Second, that preventive strategies working directly in proximity of the (possible) criminal
event has a direct effect on the outcomes of situations that might lead to a criminal event. The
places where, and the times when, criminal events are likely to occur are often well known to