RA 00048.pdf - OAR@ICRISAT

Session 8 Socioeconomic Considerations
J. 6. Ryan* Discussant—1
Rather than r e v i e w the five papers I w a s asked to
discuss
in t h e socioeconomic session of the
" S o r g h u m in t h e Eighties" s y m p o s i u m , I propose
to build upon s o m e of their t h e m e s and add a f e w
of my o w n . I will take a s o m e w h a t broader v i e w of
t h e constraints to s o r g h u m production, its marketing,
and t h e conduct of research than the authors
of t h e papers. This is not m e a n t to u n d e r m i n e
their useful contributions but to c o m p l e m e n t
t h e m .
The paper includes a discussion of past and
future trends in w o r l d s o r g h u m production, c o n ­
s u m p t i o n and d e m a n d w h i c h highlights t h e particular
p r o b l e m s w h i c h the countries of sub-Sahara
Africa m a y face in the 1980s. The importance of
d o c u m e n t i n g and understanding the adoption of
" m a t u r e " s o r g h u m innovations in the context of
ex ante design of subsequent n e w technologies is
t h e n addressed. The role of markets, infrastructure,
delivery s y s t e m s , and related policy initiatives
are considered as they affect s o r g h u m
production and adoption. Criteria for d e t e rmining
t h e allocation of research resources a m o n g s t t h e
various s o r g h u m producing regions of t h e SAT are
included. S o m e discussion of possible f u t u r e
priorities in s o r g h u m breeding f o l l o w s w i t h t h e
p e n u l t i m a t e section d e v o t e d to the potential
contribution that a farming s y s t e m s approach to
s o r g h u m research could m a k e in t h e eighties. A
concluding s t a t e m e n t t h e n e m e r g e s .
Sorghum Trends
and their Implications
T h e w o r l d area o f s o r g h u m n o w e x c e e d s 5 0
million hectares (Table 1). It has been g r o w i n g
since 1964 at t h e rate of 0.37 million hectares
* Leader. E c o n o m i c s P r o g r a m , ICRISAT.
annually. 1 W h e n c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e s t e a d y
g r o w t h in yields of 25 k g / h a per year over t h e
s a m e period (2.2%), the area expansion has led to
an annual trend g r o w t h in s o r g h u m production of
1.66 million tonnes. 2 This represents a c o m p o u n d
annual g r o w t h rate of production of 2 . 9 0 % . We
have e s t i m a t e d f r o m a study by t h e W o r l d Bank
(1977) that up to 1985 the annual rate of g r o w t h in
d e m a n d for coarse grains in developing countries
will be 3 . 6 0 % . This c o m p a r e s w i t h t h e e s t i m a t e of
Aziz (1976) for the less developed market e c o n o ­
mies of 3 . 5 5 % f r o m 1980 to 1990 and 3 . 5 7 %
f r o m 1980 to 2000. FAO (1971) e s t i m a t e s annual
c o m p o u n d g r o w t h rates of d e m a n d for coarse
cereals f r o m 1980 to 1985 of 2 . 6 9 % for developing
market economies. 3 These figures suggest
that d e m a n d pressures for s o r g h u m m a y build in
the 80s and exceed historical g r o w t h rates in
w o r l d production.
S o r g h u m production has g r o w n at an annual
rate of 3 . 8 0 % in the developing countries of t h e
semi-arid tropics (SAT) f r o m 1964 to 1978. This is
a m u c h better record than in t h e d e v e l o p e d
1 . D e r i v e d f r o m linear t r e n d lines f i t t e d t o F A O data f r o m
1 9 6 4 to 1978. T h e e q u a t i o n is: Area ('000 ha) =
4 5 2 3 0 + 370t, w h e r e t = t i m e in years a n d t h e f i g u r e
(3.4)
i n p a r e n t h e s e s i s t h e e s t i m a t e d t-value o f t h e c o e f f i ­
c i e n t on t i m e . T h e year 1 9 6 4 implies t = 1. T h e R 2 w a s
0 . 4 8 .
2. T h e respective linear t r e n d e q u a t i o n s a r e : Yield
(kg/ha) = 1008 + 2 5 t w i t h R 2 of 0 . 7 4 ; a n d P r o d u c t i o n
(6.0)
('000 m e t r i c tons) = 4 5 0 5 1 + 1 6 5 7 t w i t h R 2 of 0 . 9 2 .
(12.1)
3 . Additional d e m a n d not a c c o u n t e d f o r i n t h e a b o v e
projections m a y also derive f r o m e x p a n d e d u s e o f
s o r g h u m as a s o u r c e of f e e d s t o c k f o r p r o d u c t i o n of
alcohol to replace oil. This is already o c c u r r i n g in t h e
U.S. a n d Brazil (Schaffert a n d G o u r l e y 1982).
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics. 1982. Sorghum in the Eighties: Proceedings of the International
Symposium on Sorghum, 2 - 7 Nov 8 1 . Patancheru, A.P., India. Patancheru, A.P. India: ICRISAT.
6 9 9