RA 00048.pdf - OAR@ICRISAT

countries, w h e r e p r o d u c t i o n . has g r o w n by only
1.49% during t h e s a m e period. 4
It w o u l d s e e m that the developing countries,
including those in t h e SAT, will be in a m o r e
a d e q u a t e s u p p l y - d e m a n d balance for coarse
grains in t h e 1980s and 1990s than t h e developed
countries. H o w e v e r , there are differences in
s o r g h u m production trends in the various regions
of t h e SAT w h i c h suggest there will be substantial
regional imbalances b e t w e e n supply and d e m a n d
(Table 2). Only in t h e North, Central, and South
A m e r i c a n and other Asian SAT regions has sorg
h u m production g r o w n faster than population.
The United States D e p a r t m e n t of Agriculture
(USDA 1980, p. i) in a recent study pointed o u t :
"Sub-Saharan Africa is t h e only region in the w o r l d
w h e r e per capita f o o d production declined over
t h e past t w o decades " In 1978, t h e index of per
capita f o o d production in the 40 countries of
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) w a s about 2 1 % b e l o w
t h e level in 1 9 6 1 - 6 5 . In Asia, the index rose 1 5 %
during t h e s a m e period, w h i l e in Latin America it
rose 1 3 % (USDA 1980, p. 2). Projected f o o d
import gaps for SSA in 1990 under various
a s s u m p t i o n s range f r o m 9.5 to 21.1 million
t o n n e s . In addition, estimates of u n m e t f o o d
n e e d s in 1990 required to bring diets up to
T a b l e 2 . A n n u a l c o m p o u n d g r o w t h r a t e s o f sorg
h u m p r o d u c t i o n a n d p o p u l a t i o n i n s e v e n
r e g i o n s o f t h e S A T .
A n n u a l g r o w t h rates (%)
S o r g h u m Population
p r o d u c t i o n (projected)
R e g i o n 1 9 6 1 - 7 8 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 9 0 )
India 1.15 2.23
E a s t e r n A f r i c a 2.19 3.25
W e s t Africa - 0 . 3 9 4 . 1 4
S o u t h e r n Africa 1.82 2 8 9
O t h e r A s i a n 3.36 2.66
N o r t h , C e n t r a l , S o u t h A m e r i c a 12.50 2.84
N e a r East - 2 . 0 3 3.26
S o u r c e s . F A O a n d p r o j e c t i o n s f r o m t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l F o o d
P o l i c y R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e d a t a t a p e s .
m i n i m u m calorie c o n s u m p t i o n levels of 2 3 0 0
(cal/person per day) range f r o m 9.1 to 13 million
tonnes. 5 Current f o o d imports in SSA cost about
6 0 0 % m o r e than they did in 1970 and represent
2 2 0 % of the 1970 v o l u m e (USDA 1980, p. 6). As a
result there are severe balance of p a y m e n t s
problems. The present and prospective f o o d a n d
nutrition problem in SSA is both a production a n d
distribution problem. This is unlike parts of Asia
and Latin America w h e r e the p r o b l e m is primarily
o n e of distribution. In SSA " A g g r e g a t e supplies
are i n a d e q u a t e — e v e n assuming totally equalitarian
(sic) distribution" (USDA 1980, pp. 4 9 - 5 0 ) .
For the above reasons, it w o u l d s e e m that t h e
major agricultural research and d e v e l o p m e n t
efforts of the 80s in sorghum should focus on t h e
SSA region.
Arakeri (1982) points out that the projections of
the National C o m m i s s i o n on Agriculture, NCA,
indicate a satisfactory supply-demand balance for
cereals in India in the year 2000, including coarse
grains, provided yields (in the case of sorghum)
could be increased by 7 0 % . Yields of s o r g h u m in
India have been g r o w i n g annually by 1.56% f r o m
1960 to 1978. At this rate it w o u l d take to t h e year
2 0 1 0 to reach the yield of 1.2 t / h a used by t h e
NCA to arrive at its conclusion on t h e supplyd
e m a n d balance for s orghum. If yields g r o w at
2 . 1 6 % annually, the target could be achieved by
2000. This g r o w t h rate is w e l l w i t h i n the range of
possibilities as, since 1970, yields have g r o w n at
m o r e than 7% per year.
Arakeri suggests that d e m a n d for s o r g h u m for
h u m a n food in India in the future is not projected
to rise nearly to the same extent as d e m a n d for
s o r g h u m for animal food purposes. This is supported
by Aziz (1976), w h o estimates that for t h e
less developed countries coarse grain d e m a n d for
h u m a n f o o d will g r o w by only 2 . 5 % annually
b e t w e e n 1970 and 2000, w h e r e a s coarse grain
f e e d d e m a n d will g r o w by 5 . 3 % . Expenditure
elasticities derived by Radhakrishna and M u r t y
(1980) for India indicate a m u c h larger propensity
to c o n s u m e meat, fish, eggs, and milk products
than coarse grains as i n c o m e s rise (Table 3). As
the conversion ratio of grain to meat, poultry,
eggs, and milk is very large, this will cause t h e
derived d e m a n d for coarse grains, to f e e d ani-
4. T h e g r o w t h rates have b e e n d e r i v e d u s i n g F A O data
(various years).
5 . T h e U S D A report p o i n t s o u t that t h e s e e s t i m a t e s are
c o m p a r a b l e w i t h t h o s e recently m a d e b y F A O a n d t h e
International Food Policy Research I n s t i t u t e (IFPRI).
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