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Future Climate: Projected Average 107Figure 6.3 Projected change in average seasonal temperatures (°F, left) and precipitation (%change, right) for the Southwest region for the high-emissions (A2) scenario. A fifteen-modelaverage of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation changes for early-, mid-, and late-twenty-firstcentury with respect to the simulations’ reference period of 1971–2000. Changes in precipitation alsoshow the averaged 2041–2070 NARCCAP four global climate model simulations. The seasons areDecember–February (winter), March–May (spring), June–August (summer), and September–November(fall). Plus signs are projected values for each individual model and circles depict overall means. Source:Mearns et al. (2009).variability of shorter-period climate fluctuations (Hawkins and Sutton 2009). The magnitudeof the differences between models using the same emissions scenario is largecompared to the difference in the change between seasons and to the difference betweenhigh- and low-emissions scenarios, and is comparable to that of the mean differencesbetween the projections for the early- and late-twenty-first century.6.5 Projections of Other Temperature VariablesThe projected length of the annual freeze-free season increases across the region, whichhistorically has exhibited a freeze-free season ranging from 50 to 300 days, dependingon location (Figure 6.5, top). By the mid-twenty-first century (Figure 6.5, bottom, fromNARCCAP simulations), the entire region exhibits increases of at least 17 additionalfreeze-free days, excepting parts of the California coast, which show increases of 10 to 17days. The largest increases, more than 38 days, are in the interior far West. The freezefreeseason in eastern parts of Colorado and New Mexico increases by 17 to 24 days,while in some areas along the Rocky Mountains it increases up to 30 days.
108 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesFigure 6.4 January (left) and July (right) BCSD average temperature for California(top), the Great Basin (middle), and Colorado (bottom). The maps show the three regionsover which the temperatures were averaged. Source: Bias Corrected and Downscaled WorldClimate Research Programme's CMIP3 Climate Projections archive at http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/#Projections:%20Complete%20Archives.
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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10 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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