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Chapter 7: Future Climate: Projected Extremes 1267.1 Introduction 1287.2. Heat Waves 129Heat wave index 130Projections 1307.3 Wintertime Cold Outbreaks 1327.4 Precipitation 133General results and key uncertainties 133North American monsoon (NAM) 134Atmospheric rivers 135Hail on the Colorado Front Range 1367.5 Surface Hydrology 137Flooding 137Drought 1377.6 Fire Weather 138Santa Ana winds 1397.7 Discussion and Key Uncertainties 141Irreversible changes and tipping points 142References 143EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWESTChapter 8: Natural Ecosystems 1488.1 Introduction: Climate, Climate Change, and Ecosystems of the Southwest 1498.2 Phenology and Species Interactions 152Phenology and interactions among species in terrestrial systems 152Interactions in freshwater systems 1538.3 Southwestern Deserts 1548.4 Southwestern Forests 156Temperature, precipitation, and pests and pathogens 156Fire 157References 160Chapter 9: Coastal Issues 1689.1 Coastal Assets 1709.2 Observed Threats 170Overview 170Threats to the physical environment 170Threats to the built environment 1749.3 Ocean and Coastal Impacts to Ecosystems 174Overview 174Sea-level rise 174Changes in ocean temperature and dynamics 177Ocean acidification 1799.4 Coastal Impacts to Communities 179Overview 179
Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular transportation infrastructure 182Economy, culture, and identity 1839.5 Managing Coastal Climate Risks 183Overview 183Adaptation options 185Level of preparedness and engagement in adaptation planning 186Barriers to adaptation 188References 189Appendix 194Chapter 10: Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation 19710.1 Introduction 19810.2 Physical Changes to the Water Cycle 19910.3 Human and Natural Systems Impacts, Risks and Vulnerabilities 20010.4 Water Sector Adaptation Activities 20510.5 Planning Techniques and Stationarity 20610.6 Potential Supply and Demand Strategies and Solutions 20610.7 Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation 20710.8 Federal Adaptation Initiatives 20710.9 SECURE Water Act Overview 20810.10 Western States Federal Agency Support Team (WestFAST) 21010.11 Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG) 21010.12 State Adaptation Efforts 21010.13 Regional and Municipal Adaptation Efforts 211References 212Chapter 11: Agriculture and Ranching 21811.1 Distinctive Features of Southwestern Agriculture 22011.2 Implications for Specialty Crops 22211.3 On-farm Water Management 22311.4 System-wide Water Management: Lessons from Programming Modelsof Water Allocation 227Sustained drought in California 227Water availability and crop yields in California 227Effects of adaptation measures in California 228Economic and land-use projections in California 228Agriculture in Nevada’s Great Basin 229Water transfers in Rio Grande Basin 229Severe drought in Rio Grande Basin 230Drought and Arizona’s agriculture 230Reduced water supplies across the Southwest 230Lessons from simulation studies 23111.5 Ranching Adaptations to Multi-year Drought 23111.6 Disaster Relief Programs and Climate Adaptation 233References 235
Page 1: National Climate Assessment Regiona
Page 8: Assessment of Climate Changein the
Page 14: Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
Page 17: WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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