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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts 245natural gas and renewables. However, California alone is responsible for 68% of the region’svehicle CO 2emissions (217 million metric tons).Figure 12.4 shows the locations of key energy infrastructure in the Southwest (datataken from EIA 2010). Features shown include power plants (distinguished by fuel type),petroleum refineries, coal mines, and transmission lines (of 345kV or more).Figure 12.4 Energydistribution in theSouthwest region.Source: EIA (2010).12.3 Potential Climate Impacts on EnergyThis section discusses the energy future of the Southwest, particularly the potentialeffects of climate change on energy demand, supply, and delivery. ii The potential impactsare organized and discussed according to eight distinct themes: energy demand,electricity generation, electricity distribution, energy infrastructure, renewable source
246 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesintensity, evolution of the energy sector, primary energy production, and the cost ofclimate change. Each theme is explored in terms of linkages to climate change: observedclimate-related change; projected range of climate-induced change, mitigation, and adaptationstrategies; and related data and knowledge gaps.Climate-induced impacts to peak and annual electricity demandA potentially important impact of projected climate change would be on peak electricitydemand due to changes in peak summer afternoon temperatures. Climate warming inthe region is expected to increase peak period electricity demands for summer coolingand possibly increase peak winter heating electricity demand as well if electricity is usedfor space heating (Wei et al. 2012. Projected climate-induced changes in mean annualand extreme temperatures, including projected changes in cooling degree days, can befound in Chapters 6 and 7.Using recent data, Sathaye and others (2011) correlated temperatures above 77ºF(25ºC) with statewide peak loads during the month of August from 2003 to 2009. In California,90th percentile per-capita peak loads (a measure of extreme energy demands) areprojected to increase between 10% and 20% at the end of the century due to the effectsof climate change on summer weekday afternoon temperatures. iii Others have also analyzedthe influence of increasing temperature on energy demand in California (Milleret al. 2007; Franco and Sanstad 2008). No similar studies have been conducted for theSouthwest as a whole, but a similar range of impacts on peak demand is expected. Oneapproach would be to use the projections of Franco and Sanstad (2008) who provide anoverview and a simple methodology to estimate annual and peak demand using historicaland projected temperature data.Vulnerability of electricity generation to climate impactsThe areas in which electric power plants are vulnerable to direct climate impacts includereductions in power plant efficiency, loss of hydropower generation, and disruption ofthermoelectric production.Temperature IMPACTS on NATURAL gas TURBINES. A warming climatewould decrease the capacity and efficiency of a natural gas turbine in several ways.Warmer air is less dense than cooler air, so the air mass of the turbine at higher temperaturesis less for a given volume intake. In addition, ambient, or background, temperatureinfluences the air’s specific volume, which in turn influences the work of and the powerconsumed by the compressor. Finally, the pressure ratio within the turbine is reduced athigher temperatures, reducing mass flow (Kehlhofer et al. 2009).The relationship between temperature and natural gas power plant performancevaries by the type of natural gas power plant, the cooling equipment installed at theplant, and the geographic location of the plant. In many applied studies, the basic poweroutput-to-temperature relationship is assumed linear, such that power plant capacityis decreased 0.25% to 0.5% for every °F increase in ambient air temperature (Sathayeet al. 2012). Maulbetsch and DiFilippo (2006) estimated the relationship between ambienttemperature and the capacity potential of natural gas power plants. They foundthat combined-cycle power plant capacity drops 0.15% to 0.25% per °F and air-cooled
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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10 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Page 248 and 249: Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Page 260 and 261: Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Page 292 and 293: Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
Page 294 and 295: Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
Page 296 and 297: Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
Page 298 and 299: Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
Page 300 and 301: Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
Page 302 and 303: Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
Page 304 and 305: Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
Page 306 and 307: Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
Page 308 and 309: Urban Areas 285California, such inv
Page 310 and 311: Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
Page 312 and 313: Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
Page 314 and 315: Urban Areas 291that may then become
Page 316 and 317: Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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