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Climate Choices for a Sustainable Southwest 411Figure 18.2 Extensive federal lands in the Southwest: A legacy for the future. This mapillustrates the legacy of federal land ownership in the Southwest, covering nearly 30 percent of theentire United States. Protected habitat and ecosystem services ensure sustainable managementof resources and may be the greatest insurance policy against losses in the future, because naturalresource use and biological species can more easily adapt to rapidly changing climatic conditions.Modified from The National Atlas of the United States of America (http://www.nationalatlas.gov; seealso http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/fedlands/fedlands3.pdf; accessed October 8, 2012).Other examples of sustainable choices in the Southwest include those cities andcommunities that have broken with the western model of sprawl, energy-intensivebuildings, and dependence on the automobile, to plan more sustainable communities.Sustainable urbanism in the Southwest has included downtown infill, dry landscaping,water reuse, renewable energy development, green-building standards, and publictransport to reduce water and energy use, protect green space, and create more livablecities (see, for example, http://www.lgc.org/freepub/healthy_communities/index.html;Garde 2004; Farr 2007; and Chapter 13). Examples of large developments focused on anew sustainable urbanism in the region include Mesa Del Sol, New Mexico; Civano inTucson, Arizona; Stapleton, Colorado; Mountain House in San Joaquin County, California;and Santa Monica, California.18.4 Limiting Emissions in the SouthwestTo keep human-caused climate change below dangerous levels, the National ResearchCouncil (2010d) suggested that the United States and other industrial countries shouldreduce GHG emissions by 50% to 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This wouldgive a reasonable chance of keeping atmospheric GHG concentrations below 450 partsper million and limiting overall temperature increases to 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustriallevels. Because annual U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 were estimated to be 6
412 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesgigatons (Gt), a 50% reduction by 2050 would mean reducing emissions to 3 Gt a year,and an 80% cut would be to 1.2 Gt. The NRC estimated that this gives the United Statesa total carbon budget of 170 Gt to 200 Gt for 2012 to 2050. (The study relied on a widerange of peer reviewed studies and estimated 2008 U.S. emissions to be the equivalent ofabout 7 Gt of carbon dioxide.) While its recommendation is highly ambitious and challenging,the NRC believes achieving this goal is possible, and more easily so if begunimmediately. The study also offers a basket of options for reaching this goal, includingchoices such as: putting a price on carbon; increasing the energy efficiency of electricityproduction and transport; moving toward low carbon fuels; increased research anddevelopment for carbon capture and storage and new-generation nuclear power generation;and the retirement or retrofit of emission-intensive infrastructure (NRC 2010c, 4–5).The latest emissions data for CO 2from fossil fuels in the Southwest shows the regionis responsible for 13.4% of the U.S. total in 2009, dominated by emissions from California,which ranks second to Texas in overall emissions (see also Chapter 12). The recentlyreleased GHG data reported by large facilities (EPA 2012a) shows that the largest emittersin the Southwest are power-generating plants and oil refineries, with only thirty facilitiesproducing 50% of the emissions from all large facilities (EPA 2012b) (Table 18.1).Table 18.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by state in the Southwest, shownas co 2equivalent emissions (in million metric tons [MMT])StateCO 2emissions inMMT (2009) Percent of Region Percent of U.S.Arizona 94 12.95 1.74California 377 51.93 6.96Colorado 93 12.81 1.72Nevada 40 5.51 0.74New Mexico 58 7.99 1.07Utah 64 8.82 1.18Region 726 100 13.4U.S. total 5,417 — 100Source: http://www.epa.gov/statelocalclimate/state/activities/ghg-inventory.html.Since data for projections of regionally specific carbon emissions scenarios are notavailable, an estimate of possible regional emission reductions is provided based on theNRC study cited above (NRC 2010d). Assuming global “business-as-usual” emissionswere to increase at 3% per year as assumed in several studies (Nakićenović and Swart2000; Garnaut 2008), the Southwest would have emissions of about 1,000 million metric
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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10 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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