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Summary for Decision Makers 3Gulf of Mexico. The Mojave and Sonoran Deserts of Southern California, Nevada, andArizona are the hottest (based on July maximum temperatures), driest regions of thecontiguous United States. Coastal zones of California and northwestern Mexico havelarge temperature gradients and other properties from the shore to inland. Mountainregions are much cooler and usually much wetter regions of the Southwest, with the SierraNevada and mountains of Utah and Colorado receiving nearly half of their annualprecipitation in the form of snow. The resulting mountain snowpack provides much ofthe surface water for the region, in the form of spring runoff. [Chapter 4]There is mounting scientific evidence that climate is changing and will continue tochange. There is also considerable agreement—at varying levels of confidence sufficientto support decision making—regarding why the climate is changing, or will change[Chapter 19]. Readers of this summary may wish to review all or parts of the completereport, Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, to learn more aboutthe region’s climate, and its likely changes and effects.1.2 Observed Recent Climatic Change in the SouthwestThe climate of the Southwest is already changing in ways that can be attributed to human-causedemissions of greenhouse gases, or that are outcomes or expressions consistentwith such emissions—with these notable observations:• The Southwest is warming. Average daily temperatures for the 2001–2010 decadewere the highest (Figure 1.2) in the Southwest from 1901 through 2010.Fewer cold waves and more heat waves occurred over the Southwest during2001–2010 compared to average decadal occurrences in the twentieth century.The period since 1950 has been warmer than any period of comparable length inat least 600 years, as estimated on the basis of paleoclimatic tree-ring reconstructionsof past temperatures. [Chapter 5]• Recent drought has been unusually severe relative to droughts of the last century,but some droughts in the paleoclimate record were much more severe. Theareal extent of drought over the Southwest during 2001–2010 was the secondlargest observed for any decade from 1901 to 2010. However, the most severeand sustained droughts during 1901–2010 were exceeded in severity and durationby multiple drought events in the preceding 2,000 years (Figure 1.3). [Chapter5]• Recent flows in the four major drainage basins of the Southwest have been lowerthan their twentieth century averages. Streamflow totals in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers, Upper Colorado, Rio Grande, and Great Basin were 5% to37% lower during 2001–2010 than their twentieth century average flows. Moreover,streamflow and snowmelt in many snowmelt-fed streams of the Southwesttended to arrive earlier in the year during the late twentieth century than earlierin the twentieth century, and up to 60% of the change in arrival time has been attributedto increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere (Figure1.4). [Chapter 5]
4 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesFigure 1.2 Temperature trends in the twentieth century. The 1901–2010 trends in annuallyaveraged daily maximum temperature (TMAX, top) and daily minimum temperature (TMIN, bottom).Units are the change in °C/110yrs. Trends computed from 251 stations for precipitation analysis and 180stations for temperature analysis using GHCN V3 data. Source: Menne and Williams (2009). [Chapter 5]Figure 1.3 Historyof drought in theWest. Percent areaaffected by drought(PDSI
Page 1: National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Page 14: Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
Page 17 and 18: WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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54 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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