SW-NCA-color-FINALweb

308 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesregional load center, ports are making large investments such as dredging to increasetheir water depth, buying larger cranes, constructing new terminals, and raising bridgesto add to ships’ height clearance.Part of the competitive strategy of American ports is to promote the use of green technologyand environmentally sustainable practices at their facilities. Planning for climatechange, however, has not been a primary concern during port infrastructure development(IFC International 2008). As climate effects are felt, other routings and ports maybecome more competitive, for example, the Panama Canal (as well as the Northwest Passage,discussed previously). Opened in 1914, the Panama Canal connects the Pacific andAtlantic Oceans and now facilitates the passage of forty vessels a day (Autoridad del Canalde Panamá 2011). Even though only 25% of the world’s fleet can fit through the canallocks, 4% of global trade and a much higher percentage of all U.S.-destined trade passthrough the Panama Canal (Rosales 2007). The canal is currently undergoing an expansionthat will allow the larger cargo ships to traverse the canal and unload cargo on theU.S. East Coast rather than on the West Coast. In anticipation of this diversion of cargo,East Coast ports are investing in their facilities (e.g., dredging, raising bridges, buildingnew terminals) but with little planning for climate change (IFC International 2008). Onestudy found that the cost of investment in Arctic-capable ships that could use the NorthwestPassage to move between Japan and Newfoundland, Canada, would be recovered,but the investment would be uneconomical if the trip were extended to New York (Somanathan,Flynn, and Szymanski 2007). There is high uncertainty involved with potentialuse of the Northwest Passage for shipping, including under what jurisdiction thepassage would fall. The United States and Canada are contesting whether the passagefalls within Canadian territorial waters or should be considered an international strait.Other uncertainties are whether and to what extent the Arctic will be ice-free, whethernavigational aids of the largely uncharted Arctic will be sufficient for safe passage, andwhether use of the Northwest Passage will prove economical (Griffiths 2004; Birchall2006; Somanathan, Flynn, and Szymanski 2007).A key uncertainty to any assessment of potential vulnerabilities is the demand forthe movement of goods within the United States and internationally. Historically, domesticvehicle miles travelled (by both passengers and goods), has tracked very closelywith GDP. While this has changed somewhat in the last decade, the two are still highlycorrelated. Growth in world trade volume has outpaced world gross domestic productionover the last decade. Global and domestic economic activity is a key driver of thedemand for the movement of goods, as evidenced by the drop in demand after the 2008economic collapse. The pattern of production and consumption is also uncertain, butdetermines the demand for goods movement both around the globe, within the UnitedStates, and within metropolitan regions. Of course local and regional effects depend onmany things, including land-use policies, property values, and government incentivesboth in the United States and around the globe. Finally, given the volume of CO 2producedin the distribution of freight, another key uncertainty is the price shippers andcarriers will be expected to pay for CO 2emissions. Any pricing of emissions (not justthose from mobile sources) will directly affect global and local trade and the cost oftransportation.