SW-NCA-color-FINALweb

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Summary for Decision Makers 13Figure 1.8 Areas of the western United Statesburned in large (> 1000 acres [400 ha]) fires,1984–2011. Dark shading shows fires in areas classifiedas forest or woodland at 98-feet (30-meter) resolutionby the LANDFIRE project (http://www.landfire.gov/). Firedata from 1984–2007 are from the Monitoring Trends inBurn Severity project (http://www.mtbs.gov/) and fire datafrom 2008–2011 are from the Geospatial Multi-AgencyCoordination Group (http://www.geomac.gov/). [Chapter 8]Figure 1.9 Past, present, and future sea-level rise. Geologic and recent sea-level histories (fromtide gauges and satellite altimetry) are combined with projections to 2100 based on climate models andempirical data. Modified with permission from Russell and Griggs (2012), Figure 2.1. [Chapter 9]
14 assessment of climate change in the southwest united states• Water availability could be decreased even more by unusually warm, decadeslongperiods of drought. Much of the Southwest, including major river systemssuch as the Colorado and Rio Grande, has experienced decades-long droughtrepeatedly over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. Similar exceptional droughts couldoccur in the future, but temperatures are expected to be substantially hotter thanin the past (high confidence) (Figure 1.3). [Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 10]• The past will no longer provide an adequate guide to project the future. Twentiethcenturywater management has traditionally been based in part on the principleof “stationarity,” which assumes that future climate variations are similar to pastvariations. As climate changes, temperature will increase substantially and someareas of the Southwest will become more arid than in the past (high confidence).[Chapters 6 and 10]• Surface water quality will be affected by climate change. In some areas, surfacewater quality will be affected by scarcity of water, higher rates of evaporation,higher runoff due to increased precipitation intensity, flooding, and wildfire(high confidence). [Chapter 10]Human healthThe Southwest’s highly complex and often extreme geography and climate increase theprobability that climate change will affect public health. Several potential drivers of increasedhealth risk exist only or primarily in the Southwest, and there is substantialvariation in the sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity of individuals and groupsof people within the Southwest to climate change-related increases in health risks:• Climate change will drive a wide range of changes in illness and mortality. Inparticular, climate change will exacerbate heat-related human morbidity andmortality, and lead to increased concentrations of airborne particulates and pollutantsfrom wildfires and dust storms. Climate change may affect the extent towhich organisms such as mosquitoes and rodents can carry pathogens (e.g., bacteriaand viruses) and transmit disease from one host to another (medium-highconfidence). [Chapter 15]• Allergies and asthma will increase in some areas. On the basis of data showingearlier and longer spring flower bloom, allergies and asthma may worsen forindividual sufferers or become more widespread through the human populationas temperature increases (medium-low confidence). [Chapter 15]• Disadvantaged populations will probably suffer most. The health of individualswho are elderly, infirm, or economically disadvantaged is expected to decreasedisproportionately to that of the general population (high confidence), due totheir increased exposure to extreme heat and other climate hazards. [Chapter 15]Additional effects of climate changeClimate change has the potential to affect many other sectors and populations within theSouthwest. For example:• Agriculture will be affected by climate change. Effects of climate change and
Page 1: National Climate Assessment Regiona
Page 8: Assessment of Climate Changein the
Page 14: Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
Page 17 and 18: WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
Page 19 and 20: Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
Page 21 and 22: Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
Page 23 and 24: 20.2 Developing Research Strategies
Page 25 and 26: 2 assessment of climate change in t
Page 33 and 34: 10 assessment of climate change in
Page 35: 12 assessment of climate change in
Page 79 and 80: Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
Page 87 and 88:
64 assessment of climate change in
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241:
Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
Page 244 and 245:
Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
Page 246 and 247:
Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
Page 248 and 249:
Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
Page 250 and 251:
Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
Page 252 and 253:
Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
Page 254 and 255:
Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
Page 256 and 257:
Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
Page 258 and 259:
Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
Page 260 and 261:
Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
Page 262 and 263:
Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
Page 264 and 265:
Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
Page 266 and 267:
Page 268 and 269:
Page 270 and 271:
Page 272 and 273:
Page 274 and 275:
Page 276 and 277:
Page 278 and 279:
Page 280 and 281:
Page 282 and 283:
Page 284 and 285:
Page 286 and 287:
Page 288 and 289:
Page 290 and 291:
Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
Page 292 and 293:
Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
Page 294 and 295:
Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
Page 296 and 297:
Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
Page 298 and 299:
Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
Page 300 and 301:
Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
Page 302 and 303:
Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
Page 304 and 305:
Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
Page 306 and 307:
Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
Page 308 and 309:
Urban Areas 285California, such inv
Page 310 and 311:
Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
Page 312 and 313:
Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
Page 314 and 315:
Urban Areas 291that may then become
Page 316 and 317:
Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
Page 318 and 319:
Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
Page 320 and 321:
Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
Page 322 and 323:
Transportation 299This chapter begi
Page 324 and 325:
Transportation 301Transportation se
Page 326 and 327:
Transportation 303Other needed chan
Page 328 and 329:
Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
Page 330 and 331:
Transportation 307Disruptions to th
Page 332 and 333:
Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
Page 334 and 335:
Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
Page 336 and 337:
Human Health 313establish policy gu
Page 338 and 339:
Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
Page 340 and 341:
Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
Page 342 and 343:
Human Health 319expected to be more
Page 344 and 345:
Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
Page 346 and 347:
Human Health 323by climate in multi
Page 348 and 349:
Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
Page 350 and 351:
Human Health 327throughout the year
Page 352 and 353:
Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
Page 354 and 355:
Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
Page 356 and 357:
Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
Page 358 and 359:
Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
Page 360 and 361:
Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
Page 362 and 363:
Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
Page 364 and 365:
Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
Page 366 and 367:
Page 368 and 369:
Page 370 and 371:
Page 372 and 373:
Page 374 and 375:
Page 376 and 377:
Page 378 and 379:
Page 380 and 381:
Page 382 and 383:
Page 384 and 385:
Page 386 and 387:
Page 388 and 389:
Page 390 and 391:
Page 392 and 393:
Page 394 and 395:
Page 396 and 397:
Page 398 and 399:
Page 400 and 401:
Page 402 and 403:
Page 404 and 405:
Page 406 and 407:
Page 408 and 409:
Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
Page 410 and 411:
Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
Page 412 and 413:
Page 414 and 415:
Page 416 and 417:
Page 418 and 419:
Page 420 and 421:
Page 422 and 423:
Page 424 and 425:
Page 426 and 427:
Page 428 and 429:
Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
Page 430 and 431:
Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
Page 432 and 433:
Page 434 and 435:
Page 436 and 437:
Page 438 and 439:
Page 440 and 441:
Page 442 and 443:
Page 444 and 445:
Page 446 and 447:
Page 448 and 449:
Page 450 and 451:
Page 452 and 453:
Page 454 and 455:
Page 456 and 457:
Page 458 and 459:
Page 460 and 461:
Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
Page 462 and 463:
Page 464 and 465:
Page 466 and 467:
Page 468 and 469:
Page 470 and 471:
Page 472 and 473:
Page 474 and 475:
Page 476 and 477:
Page 478 and 479:
Page 480 and 481:
Page 482 and 483:
Page 484 and 485:
Page 486 and 487:
Research Strategies for Addressing
Page 488 and 489:
Page 490 and 491:
Page 492 and 493:
Page 494 and 495:
Page 496 and 497:
Page 498 and 499:
Page 500 and 501:
Page 502 and 503:
Page 504 and 505:
Page 506 and 507:
GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
Page 508 and 509:
Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
Page 510 and 511:
Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
Page 512 and 513:
Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
Page 514 and 515:
Glossary 491heating degree days - a
Page 516 and 517:
Glossary 493misery days - days wher
Page 518 and 519:
Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
Page 520 and 521:
Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
Page 522 and 523:
Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
Page 524 and 525:
Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
Page 526 and 527:
Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
Page 528 and 529:
Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
Page 531:
Assessment of Climate Change in the
show all

SW-NCA-color-FINALweb

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?