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The Changing Southwest 51Table 3.3 Historical, current, and forecasted expansion of urban and exurban lands in thesouthwest (data expressed as thousands of acres [kac])Historical (1950) Current (~2000) Forecast (~2050)GeographyUrbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)Urbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)Urbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)STATESArizona 30 224 544 1,441 1,2551,4481,0541,163California 597 2,334 2,516 7,962 4,9955,3494,8745,058Colorado 68 355 402 1,690 1,0241,003785766New Mexico 24 237 191 1,328 324348277287Nevada 8 65 179 428 562500463419Utah 33 235 224 655 696580599485Southwest 767 3,477 4,083 13,563 8,8949,2708,0928,218Water RESOURCE REGIONSRio Grande 21 208 161 1,035 2913142412501,9671,8181,9281,88411,72711,37410,55510,3842,2042,2022,3112,3331,7301,8121,8411,925510521516521863965938105819,07418,76218,15818,1741,3611,3861,4071,456
52 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesTable 3.3 Historical, current, and forecasted expansion of urban and exurban lands in thesouthwest (data expressed as thousands of acres [kac]) (Continued)Historical (1950) Current (~2000) Forecast (~2050)GeographyUrbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)Urbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)Urbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)UpperColoradoLowerColorado7 112 79 889 15014411811434 269 677 1,665 1,6911,8791,3931,4961,1181,1461,1831,1982,1612,0062,1822,144Great Basin 37 259 283 835 899738769629California 596 2311 2495 7874 49085250481849911,1991,3061,2221,33511,58211,24810,41310,254Source: Bierwagen et al. (2010).Note: These reflect the storylines used in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakićenović andSwart 2000): A1, A2, B1, and B2, from top to bottom.A remaining question of importance for this region is how well emerging “greendesign” strategies will be able to diminish or reduce resource demands for energyand water. Much of the development of alternative resources such as wind and solarenergy has occurred remotely from the urban areas to be served, as has water-supplyinfrastructure. This geographical decoupling can be useful in some settings, but furtherremoves social systems from natural system feedbacks. This can be a positivething, but also can hinder the development of adaptive strategies because of a perceivedlack of need to change behavior.With environmental management decisions taking place at many geographicscales, over different time frames, and by multiple agencies, the coordination of climatechange adaptation strategies will be a particular challenge.
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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102 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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