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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingCoordinating Lead AuthorGeorge B. Frisvold (University of Arizona)lead authorsLouise E. Jackson (University of California, Davis), James G. Pritchett (ColoradoState University), John P. Ritten (University of Wyoming)review editorMark Svoboda (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)Executive SummaryThis chapter reviews the climate factors that influence crop production and agriculturalwater use. It discusses (a) modeling studies that use climate-change model projectionsto examine effects on agricultural water allocation and (b) scenario studies that investigateeconomic impacts and the potential for using adaptation strategies to accommodatechanging water supplies, crop yields, and pricing. The chapter concludes with sectionson ranching and drought and on disaster-relief programs.• Under warmer winter temperatures, some existing agricultural pests can persistyear-round, while new pests and diseases may become established. While cropsgrown in some areas might not be viable economically under future climate conditions,other crops could replace them. (high confidence).• Many important costs of climate change to agriculture will be adjustment costs.The suitability of production in an area depends not only on climate, but alsoon the presence of complementary infrastructure such as irrigation conveyancesystems and specialized agricultural processing and handling facilities, as well218Chapter citation: Frisvold, G. B., L. E. Jackson, J. G. Pritchett, and J. P. Ritten. 2013. “Agriculture andRanching.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for theNational Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy,218–239. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.