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Moving Forward with Imperfect Information 453Table 19.2 Knowledge gaps and key challenges to improving understanding, reducinguncertainty, identifying and addressing vulnerabilities to climate changesin the Southwest (Continued)ModelUncertaintyScenarioUncertaintyKnowledge Gaps Contributing to KeyChallengesObservational DataUnderstanding Physical Climate DynamicsClimate Models & DownscalingPhysical Climate Impacts to Biological &Human SystemsSocial & Behavioral FactorsEconomic FactorsPolicy & Regulatory FactorsCommunication & EducationChapter(s)Measurements of precipitation amountand typeXPresent Weather andClimate: Average Conditions(4)Present Weather andClimate: Evolving Conditions(5)Future Climate: ProjectedAverage (6)KEY CHALLENGE: There is limited understanding of the influence of climate change on natural variability(e.g. ENSO, PDO), extreme events (droughts, floods), and the marine layer along coastal California.Ability to connect climate change andextreme eventsX Human Health (15)Understanding of physical processessuch as atmospheric convection, evapotranspiration,snow pack formation, andrunoff productionConnections between modes of naturalvariability (ENSO and PDO) and climatechange; including effect on <strong>SW</strong> MonsoonOccurrence of compound high-impactextremes such as drought and heat wavesXXXPresent Weather andClimate: Evolving Conditions(5)Future Climate: ProjectedExtremes (7)Future Climate: ProjectedAverage (6)Water: Impacts, Risks, andAdaptation (10)Future Climate: ProjectedExtremes (7)Understanding of marine layer processes X Coastal Issues (9)
454 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesTable 19.2 Knowledge gaps and key challenges to improving understanding, reducinguncertainty, identifying and addressing vulnerabilities to climate changesin the Southwest (Continued)ModelUncertaintyScenarioUncertaintyKnowledge Gaps Contributing to KeyChallengesObservational DataUnderstanding Physical Climate DynamicsClimate Models & DownscalingPhysical Climate Impacts to Biological &Human SystemsSocial & Behavioral FactorsEconomic FactorsPolicy & Regulatory FactorsCommunication & EducationChapter(s)KEY CHALLENGE: Climate models, downscaling and resulting projections of the physical climate areimperfect. Representing the influence of the diverse topography of the Southwest on regional climateis a particular challenge.Downscaling methodologies andinconsistenciesReproducibility of extreme high-frequencyprecipitation events by climate modelsX XXWater: Impacts, Risks, andAdaptation (10)Future Climate: ProjectedExtremes (7)KEY CHALLENGE: The impacts of climate change on key components of the natural ecosystem (includingspecies and land regimes) are ill constrained.Links between impacts and climate changeImpacts to tribal lands and societiesRelationship between climate anddistributions of speciesConnections between climate and diseasesystemsResponse of individual species to changesin climateExtent to which individuals in differentpopulations or species can observablychange physical characteristics in responseto climateXXUnique Challenges FacingSouthwestern Tribes (17)Unique Challenges FacingSouthwestern Tribes (17)X Natural Ecosystems (8)X Human Health (15)X Natural Ecosystems (8)X Natural Ecosystems (8)
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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10 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Page 426 and 427: Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Page 430 and 431: Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Page 522 and 523: Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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