SW-NCA-color-FINALweb

470 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesTable 20.1 Research needs and strategies associated with themes in the Assessment ofClimate Change in the Southwest United States (Continued)Uncertainty theme Research need Research strategyTemporal aspects of futurepower production.Vulnerability of power plantsto flooding.Exposure and vulnerability ofthermoelectric power productionto drought and climatechange.A lack of accurate projectionsof future ground-level solarradiation adds to uncertainty inregional energy potential andproduction projections.Uncertainty in future transportationsector fuel types and use.Implications of climate changeacross the entire Western interconnection.Simultaneous spatial and temporalassessment of evolution of powerproduction, plant performance,fuel type and mix.Flood risk is site-specific, and relativelyfew studies directly quantifypotential climate change impactson hydropower production.Rigorous assessment of the exposureand vulnerability of thermoelectricpower production todrought and climate change.Improved simulation of regionalcloud cover, directly from physicalprinciples.Examinations of the type andintensity of future fuel use in thetransportation sector.Comprehensive assessment ofimpacts of climate change onmultiple modes of power production,in conjunction with projectionsof shifts in power demand,and risks to the transmission grid.Estimate temperature impacts on differenttypes of electricity-generating capacityand power-plant performance throughoutthe Southwest. Improve projections ofspatial shifts in wind regimes; investigateprobability and duration of no-windconditions on hot days. Improve projectionsof extreme surface temperatures andtheir effects on photo-voltaic and concentratedsolar power production. Estimateevolution of current and future power,with respect to fuel type.Conduct site-specific studies of powerplant vulnerability to flooding. Synthesizeand assess individual studies, in orderto evaluate vulnerability and risk for theregion.Assessment of hydrologic conditions,combined with operational characteristicsand institutional factors. Development ofa definitive measure of aggregate impact.Inventory and rigorously assess therobustness of existing contingency plansfor individual plants.Increase spatial resolution in climatemodels, and improve model physics forestimation of ground-level solar radiation.In the meantime, ground-level radiationgenerated by global and regional climatemodels should be interpreted cautiously.Projections of the type and intensity of fuelsused in the transportation sector, givenprojected future climate changes.Evaluate concurrent impacts of climate onWest-wide hydropower production, coincidentimpacts on thermoelectric productionand induced shifts in electric powerdemand. Include studies of fire risk to thetransmission grid, given projected increasesin regional fire frequency. Identify lossminimizing operation practices.