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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a SustainableSouthwestCoordinating Lead AuthorsDiana Liverman (University of Arizona), Susanne C. Moser (Susanne MoserResearch and Consulting, Stanford University)lead authorsPaul S. Weiland (Nossaman Inc.), Lisa Dilling (University of Colorado)contributing authorsMaxwell T. Boykoff (University of Colorado), Heidi E. Brown (University of Arizona),Eric S. Gordon (University of Colorado), Christina Greene (University of Arizona),Eric Holthaus (University of Arizona), Deb A. Niemeier (University of California,Davis), Stephanie Pincetl (University of California, Los Angeles), W. JamesSteenburgh (University of Utah), Vincent C. Tidwell (Sandia National Laboratories)review editorJennifer Hoffman (EcoAdapt)Executive SummaryThe Southwest faces many stresses from current climate variability and is projected tobecome a hotspot for climate change. A century of economic and population growth hasplaced pressures on water resources, energy supplies, and ecosystems. Yet the SouthwestChapter citation: Liverman, D., S. C. Moser, P. S. Weiland, L. Dilling, M. T. Boykoff, H. E. Brown, E.S. Gordon, C. Greene, E. Holthaus, D. A. Niemeier, S. Pincetl, W. J. Steenburgh, and V. C. Tidwell.2013. “Climate Choices for a Sustainable Southwest.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the SouthwestUnited States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine,R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 405–435. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance.Washington, DC: Island Press.405
406 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesalso has a long legacy of adaptation to climate variability and of environmental managementthat has enabled society to live within environmental constraints and to protectlarge parts of the landscape for multiple uses and conservation. Many different types oforganizations and individuals in the Southwest have already taken a variety of steps torespond to climate change; and a wide range of choices are available for those choosingto reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or implement preparedness and adaptationmeasures to manage the risks from climate variability and change in the region. Othersare pursuing energy and water efficiency, renewable energy, or sustainable agriculturefor other reasons but these can also reduce emissions or assist with adaptation.This chapter features the following key findings:• The U.S. Southwest is a region with great capacity both to respond to environmentalstress and to steward its abundant natural resources. Past efforts todevelop its water resources and protect its public lands are indicative of thiscapacity, and while viewed as successes by many, they also illustrate challengesand trade-offs in policy and actions that can increase resilience for some whileincreasing vulnerability for others. (medium-high confidence)• Local and state governments, tribes, private-sector entities, non-profit organizations,as well as individuals are already taking steps to reduce the causes ofclimate change in the Southwest—though often not solely for climate-mitigationpurposes—and there are many lessons to learn from the successes and failuresof these early efforts. Few systematic studies have been undertaken to date toevaluate the effectiveness and impacts of the choices made in the Southwest toreduce GHG emissions. (medium-high confidence)• If the Southwest decides to reduce a proportional share of the emissions recommended(50% to 80% by 2050) by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences andothers, the carbon budget for the region between 2012 and 2050 would only be150–350 million metric tons per year (NRC 2010d). This would be a very challengingbut not impossible target to meet. (medium-low confidence)• There are low-cost, cost-saving, or revenue-generating opportunities for emissionreductions in the Southwest, especially in energy efficiency and renewableenergy. (medium-high confidence)• A range of stakeholders are already planning how to prepare for and respondto climate risks in the Southwest, but few have begun implementing adaptationprograms due to financial, institutional, informational, political, and attitudinalbarriers. Various adaptation options exist in every sector, including many thathelp society respond to current risks of climate variability and extreme events.(medium-high confidence)• Many response options simultaneously provide adaptation and mitigation “cobenefits,”reducing the causes of climate change while also increasing the preparednessand resilience of different sectors to climate change. Other responseoptions involve trade-offs between increasing emissions or reducing resilience
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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