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Overview 35Joyce, L. A., and R. Birdsey, eds. 2000. The impact of climate change on America’s forests: A TechnicalDocument supporting the 2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-59. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr059.pdf.Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, eds. 2009. Global climate change impacts in the UnitedStates. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf.Marshall, R., M. List, and C. Enquist. 2006. Ecoregion-based conservation assessments of the southwesternUnited States and northwestern Mexico: A geodatabase for six ecoregions, including theApache Highlands, Arizona-New Mexico mountains, Colorado Plateau, Mojave Desert, SonoranDesert, and southern Rocky Mountains. Tucson, AZ: The Nature Conservancy. http://azconservation.org/dl/TNCAZ_Ecoregions_SW_Ecoregional_Summary.pdf.Mayor’s Greenprint Denver Advisory Council. 2007. City of Denver Climate Action Plan: Finalrecommendations to Mayor Hickenlooper. Denver, CO: City of Denver. http://www.greenprintdenver.org/about/climate-action-plan-reports/.Moss, R. H., and G. Yohe. 2011. Assessing and communicating confidence levels and uncertaintiesin the main conclusions of the NCA 2013 Report: Guidance for authors and contributors.N.p.: National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee (NCADAC).http://www.globalchange.gov/images/NCA/Draft-Uncertainty-Guidance_2011-11-9.pdf.Nakićenović, N., and R. Swart, eds. 2000. Special report on emissions scenarios: A special report ofWorking Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press.National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2000. Climate change impacts on the United States: The potentialconsequences of climate variability and change. Report for the U.S. Global Change ResearchProgram. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.National Audubon Society. 2009. Birds and climate change: Ecological disruption in motion.http://birds.audubon.org/sites/default/files/documents/birds_and_climate_report.pdf.National Research Council (NRC). 2007. Colorado River Basin water management: Evaluating andadjusting to hydroclimatic variability. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.—. 2010a. Adapting to the impacts of climate change. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.—. 2010b. Informing an effective response to climate change. Washington, DC: National AcademiesPress.Ray, A., J. Barsugli, K. Averyt, K. Wolter, M. Hoerling, N. Doesken, B. Udall, and R. S. Webb.2008. Climate change in Colorado: A synthesis to support water resources management and adaptation.Boulder, CO: Western Water Assessment. http://cwcb.state.co.us/public-information/publications/Documents/ReportsStudies/ClimateChangeReportFull.pdf.Sprigg, W. A., and T. Hinkley, eds. 2000. Preparing for a changing climate: The potential consequencesof climate variability and change, Southwest. A report of the Southwest Regional AssessmentGroup for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Tucson, AZ: Institute for the Study ofPlanet Earth.U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). 2011. SECURE Water Act Section 9503(c) – ReclamationClimate Change and Water, Report to Congress. Denver: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. http://www.usbr.gov/climate/SECURE/docs/SECUREWaterReport.pdf.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2010. Climate change indicators in the United States.http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/download.html.
36 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesEndnotesiiiiiiivvviviiviiiixxThe phrase “climate variability and change” is used many times in this document. Climate variabilityrefers to the inherent variability of climate, for instance, from year to year or decade todecade; climate change refers to ways in which systematic trends in some climate factors, such asincreases in heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere (greenhouse gases) and associated increasesin temperature, alter the climate system and its variations.This section is based, in part, on remarks from Dr. David Stephenson (University of Exeter, UK)and text from the National Climate Assessment.Taken together, the A2 and B1 scenarios provide reasonable estimates of what “high” and “low”global GHG emissions might be throughout the remainder of the twenty-first century. For example,scenario A2 (referred to in this report as the “high-emissions scenario”) assumes a futurewith a high global population growth rate, slow global economic development rate, slowglobal technological change, and global fossil fuels use at rates slightly lower than observed inhistorical records. This combination of conditions would result in relatively high GHG emissionsthat continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century at an increasing rate (to a concentrationof approximately 900 parts per million (ppm) in 2100), and substantially increased globaltemperatures. In contrast, scenario B1 (referred to in this report as the “low-emissions scenario”)assumes a future in which global population peaks in the year 2050 and economies shift rapidlytoward the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, with an emphasis on globalsolutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. In the B1 scenario, greenhousegas (GHG) emissions reach a peak in the mid-twenty-first century and then decline, resulting incarbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration of approximately 540 ppm in 2100, and smaller increases inglobal temperatures than those resulting from the A2 scenario. As has been emphasized in theIPCC study results and in prior regional climate change assessments, the outcomes of differentmitigation strategies (as expressed by the A2 and B1 scenarios), in terms of the cumulative GHGconcentrations and resultant climate changes, do not become very clear until after the middleof the twenty-first century, when the warming and other impacts from the B1 low-emissionsscenario begin to be clearly exceeded by those of the A2 (and other) high-emissions scenarios(Nakićenović and Swart 2000; Hayhoe et al. 2004; IPCC 2007; Cayan et al. 2008).Stakeholders are natural resource managers whose decision making relies in part on understandinghow climate related variables impact their domains.The Southwest Climate Alliance consists chiefly of three NOAA-funded Regional Integrated Sciencesand Assessments projects (California-Nevada Applications Program [http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/], Climate Assessment for the Southwest [http://www.climas.arizona.edu/], and WesternWater Assessment [http://wwa.colorado.edu/]) and the Department of the Interior-funded SouthwestClimate Science Center (http://www.doi.gov/csc/southwest/index.cfm), as well as a numberof partner universities and federal research laboratories.Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 134 / Wednesday, July 13, 2011 / Notices http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-07-13/pdf/2011-17379.pdf.This technical report is only one of several for which EOIs were submitted. As far as the editors ofthis report know, this was the only EOI intending to produce a comprehensive regional report.These were the October 27, 2011, NCA pre-decisional draft guidelines, which were the guidelinesavailable to the authors of this report during the report draft and review periods.Traceable accounts consist of (1) the reasoning behind the conclusion, (2) the sources of data andinformation contributing to the conclusion, (3) an assessment of the amount of evidence anddegree of agreement among sources of evidence, (4) an assessment of confidence in the finding,and (5) an assessment of uncertainty associated with the finding.Many of the remarks here are drawn from National Climate Assessment guidance documentsand insights from National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee co-chair,Gary Yohe.
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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