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ContentsAcknowledgementsAbbreviations and AcronymsixxiChapter 1: Summary for Decision Makers 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Observed Recent Climatic Change in the Southwest 31.3 Projected Future Climatic Change in the Southwest 51.4 Recent and Future Effects of Climatic Change in the Southwest 6Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems 6Coastal systems 10Water 12Human health 14Additional effects of climate change 141.5 Choices for Adjusting to Climate and Climate Change 151.6 Key Unknowns 19References 19contextChapter 2: Overview 212.1 Introduction 21What is an assessment? 222.2 Context and Scope 232.3 Other Southwest Region Climate Assessments 252.4 Sponsors and Authors of this Report 272.5 Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty 292.6 Accountability and Review 302.7 Organization of This Report 31References 34Chapter 3: The Changing Southwest 373.1 Lay of the Land: Geographical Themes and Features 38Natural features 38Human geography 41Public lands 42Population 43Natural resource economy 453.2 Land Use and Land Cover 46Trends for urban and exurban development 49References 53Appendix 53
WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWESTChapter 4: Present Weather and Climate:Average Conditions 564.1 Introduction 574.2 General Climate Characteristics 58Surface-air temperature 58Precipitation 60Snowfall, snowpack, and water resources 624.3 Major Climate and Weather Events 62Drought 62Winter storms 63Floods 64Thunderstorms 65Temperature extremes 66Air quality 664.4 Climate Variability 67References 68Chapter 5: Present Weather and Climate:Evolving Conditions 745.1 Introduction 755.2 Climate of the First Decade of the Twenty-first Century 765.3 Climate Trends for 1901–2010 795.4 Extreme Weather Variability During 1901–2010 795.5 Summertime Drought During 1901–2010 825.6 Hydroclimatic Variability During 1901–2010 845.7 Paleoclimate of the Southwest United States 88Paleotemperature 88Paleodrought 89Paleostreamflow 915.8 Future Monitoring and Science Needs 91References 92Appendix 97Chapter 6: Future Climate: Projected Average 1016.1 Global Climate Models: Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling 1026.2 Climate Scenarios 1036.3 Data Sources 1046.4 Temperature Projections 1046.5 Projections of Other Temperature Variables 1076.6 Precipitation Projections 1106.7 Atmospheric Circulation Changes 1146.8 North American Monsoon 1156.9 Changes in Precipitation-related Measures 117References 120
Page 1: National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Page 14: Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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42 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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