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Chapter 3The Changing SouthwestCoordinating Lead AuthorDavid M. Theobald (National Park Service)Lead AuthorsWilliam R. Travis (University of Colorado), Mark A. Drummond (U.S. GeologicalSurvey), Eric S. Gordon (University of Colorado)Expert Review EditorMichele Betsill (Colorado State University)Executive SummaryThis chapter describes important geographical and socio-economic characteristics andtrends in the Southwest—such as population and economic growth and changes in landownership, land use, and land cover—that provide the context for how climate changewill likely affect the Southwest. The chapter also describes key laws and institutionsrelevant to adaptive management of resources.• The Southwest is home to a variety of unique, natural landscapes—mountains,valleys, plateaus, canyons, and plains—that are both important to the region’sclimate and respond uniquely to changes in climate. Potential adaptation of humanand natural systems will face challenges due to a complex pattern of landownership, which crosses political and management jurisdictions and transversessignificant elevational gradients. This decreases the adaptive capacity of theregion because it makes it more difficult to coordinate decision making acrosslandscapes. (medium-low confidence)Chapter citation: Theobald, D. M., W. R. Travis, M. A. Drummond, and E. S. Gordon. 2013. “TheChanging Southwest.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Preparedfor the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, andS. LeRoy, 37–55. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.37
38 assessment of climate change in the southwest united states• The Southwest has experienced rapid population increases and urban expansionfor the past 150 years or so, and rapid population growth will likely continue tobe an enduring feature, especially in urban areas. Indeed, the region will likelygrow by an additional 19 million people by 2030 (from 2010). These changes willmake it more difficult to manage natural resources because of the additional demandfor and reliance on natural resources (e.g., water supply). (medium-highconfidence)• The coordination of climate-change adaptation strategies will be challenging becauseenvironmental management decisions will be made at many geographicscales, over different time frames, and by multiple agencies pursuing numerousassociated policies and management goals. Adaptive capacity may be bolsteredthrough lessons learned from emerging assessment projects (see Chapter 18).(medium-high confidence)3.1 Lay of the Land: Geographical Themes and FeaturesRegions can be defined in many ways, but an important lesson from decades of geographicalresearch is that the definition depends on the theme or topic being studied,the manner in which it is being studied, and the intended outcome of such a study.An assemblage of states provides the National Climate Assessment a way to divide assessmentactivities regionally. The “Southwest”—defined as the six contiguous statesof Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—rests on the certainlogic of proximity and on the fact that states are important governmental units that mustrespond to the effects of climate variation and change. Beyond this basic political geographyare several “critical zones” that are important to highlight because of their vulnerabilityto climate change, such as the coastal zone (see Chapter 9), the wildland-urbaninterface (see Chapter 13), the U.S.-Mexico borderlands (see Chapter 16), and the landsof Native nations (see Chapter 17).Natural featuresTwo common geographical features tie the six states together. First, the states collectivelyspan the most extensive arid and semi-arid climates and lands in the United States. Eachstate also touches and makes use of the waters of the Colorado River Basin. On the otherhand, the six-state region, covering nearly 700,000 square miles, encompasses a varietyof topography and landscapes, from the highest mountains in the conterminous UnitedStates (Mt. Whitney at 14,505 feet in California and Mt. Elbert at 14,440 feet in Colorado)to the lowest terrestrial point in the western hemisphere (Bad Water Basin in Death Valleyat 282 feet below sea level). Significant physiographic and hydrologic features (Figure3.1) include: a 3,400-mile shoreline along the Pacific Ocean that varies from cliff androcky headlands to low-gradient coastal and brackish marshlands; the Central Valley ofCalifornia; the Sierra Nevada; a southern reach of the Cascade Range; the extensive Basinand Range province; the Colorado Plateau; the Southern Rocky Mountains; and thewestern Great Plains (or “high plains”) that skirt the region’s eastern edge in Coloradoand New Mexico (Hunt 1974). This natural landscape is also broken into hydrologicalbasins, most notably the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Colorado, and Rio Grande, as well as
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
Page 14: Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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