SW-NCA-color-FINALweb

Research Strategies for Addressing Uncertainties 467Table 20.1 Research needs and strategies associated with themes in the Assessment ofClimate Change in the Southwest United StatesUncertainty theme Research need Research strategyCLIMATE (CHAPTERS 4–7)Distinguishing long-term climatechange from interdecadal andinterannual climate variability at theregional scale.Uncertainty in evaluating trendsand variability in mountainousareas and montane environments.Inadequate confidence in estimatesof variations in current and futurelocal climate conditions.Assumption that study of pastclimate variations can provide arepresentation of future climate thatis adequate to estimate future risks.Detection and attribution studies,supported by improved observationsand data interpolationmethods.Improved observations acrossmountain gradients and at arange of elevations.Enhanced meteorology andhydrology observations to bettermonitor at scales consistent withterrain. Improved modeling forstudies of local variability.A suitable replacement for thestationarity principle.Increased emphasis on detection andattribution, supported by rigorous researchprotocols. Establish and maintainhigh quality weather and climate stations,prioritizing the largest data voids.Improved representation, in models, ofphysical processes such as atmosphericconvection, evapotranspiration, snowpackformation, and runoff production.Improved models and modeling techniquesfor multi-year to decade prediction.Increased collaboration betweenmodelers and scientists whose researchfocuses on observations.Increased emphasis on mountainclimate analyses, including studies thatlink climate, hydrology, soil science.Augmented capabilities should addressthe occurrence of heavy precipitationduring winter storms and summerconvection, rain versus snow and rainon-snowevents, snowpack formationand melt-off, and basin-scale runoffefficiency. Development of improvedtechniques for the automated measurementof precipitation in mountainousareas, especially remote locations.Improved climate and hydrologicalmodeling at scales consistent withSouthwest terrain.Focused research on non-stationarity.Investigation into statistical approachesfor dealing with time-varying climateand hydrological baselines.