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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climate: EvolvingConditionsCoordinating Lead AuthorMartin P. Hoerling (NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory)Lead AuthorsMichael Dettinger (U.S. Geological Survey and Scripps Institution ofOceanography), Klaus Wolter (University of Colorado, CIRES), Jeff Lukas(University of Colorado, CIRES), Jon Eischeid (University of Colorado, CIRES), RamaNemani (NASA, Ames), Brant Liebmann (University of Colorado, CIRES), KennethE. Kunkel (NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, North CarolinaState University, and National Climate Data Center)Expert Review EditorArun Kumar (NOAA)Executive SummaryThis chapter assesses weather and climate variability and trends in the Southwest, usingobserved climate and paleoclimate records. It analyzes the last 100 years of climate variabilityin comparison to the last 1,000 years, and links the important features of evolvingclimate conditions to river flow variability in four of the region’s major drainage basins.The chapter closes with an assessment of the monitoring and scientific research neededto increase confidence in understanding when climate episodes, events, and phenomenaare attributable to human-caused climate change.Chapter citation: Hoerling, M. P., M. Dettinger, K. Wolter, J. Lukas, J. Eischeid, R. Nemani, B.Liebmann, and K. E. Kunkel. 2013. “Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions.” In Assessmentof Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National ClimateAssessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 74–100. A reportby the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.74