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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities 353the border over the last 100 years and created one of the most dynamic and diversesociocultural landscapes in the world. The diversity of the border region’s population—including differences in languages used at home and access to technology—challengeseffective communication about climate-related risk.Contemporary TRENDS. Currently, most of the U.S.-Mexico border population isconcentrated in fourteen fast-growing, paired, adjacent cities with a common history,strong interactions, and shared problems (CDWR 2009). Eight of these binational pairsare on the western end of the border in the area included in this chapter (see Figure 16.3).In 2002, there were approximately 1 million (legal) border crossings daily by residentsin the border’s twin cities to work, shop, attend classes, visit family, and participate inother activities (GAO 2003); the number of crossings declined to half a million by 2010.Mexican border towns are part of a very centralized national political system, sufferfrom limited fiscal resources, and lack a tradition of urban planning. Across the border,U.S. towns have had greater political autonomy, are part of a strong and stable nationaleconomy, and have broadly applied land use planning and supplied basic infrastructureand services to their residents. Thus, the “twin cities” along the U.S.-Mexico border areplaces of encounter but also of intense political, social, and physical contrasts.The per capita income within the U.S. border counties is only about 85% of the U.S.per capita income. If wealthy San Diego County is excluded, the GDP per capita of theborder region is only about 64% of the national level (2007 data). In 2006, if the twentyfourU.S. counties along the border were aggregated as the fifty-first state, they wouldrank 40th in per capita income, 5th in unemployment, 2nd in tuberculosis, 7th in adultdiabetes, 50th in insurance coverage for children and adults, and 50th in high schoolcompletion—all characteristic of regions of poverty (Soden 2006; and www.bordercounties.org).In the 2010 U.S. Census, Arizona and New Mexico were tied for the fourthhighestpoverty level in the United States.Demographic drivers. The binational border region from San Diego-Tijuana toPaso del Norte is demographically dynamic, growing much faster than the average ofeither nation (Figure 16.4).Since 1970, the U.S. side of the border region has attracted huge flows of domestic migrants—mostlynon-Hispanics, seeking a Southwestern “sunbelt” lifestyle (and climate),retirement, or job opportunities—and international immigrants—mostly from Mexicoand Central America, seeking jobs and economic opportunities. Between 1983 and 2005,the population almost doubled (from 6.9 million people to over 13 million). Since theeconomic recession began in 2007−2008, however, growth rates have declined in borderstates, except Texas (Cave 2009; Frey 2011). xviii Growth rates have also declined in manyborder counties. For example, growth slowed in the counties bordering Sonora, from arate of 5.3% between 2000 and 2005 to 1.6% between 2007 and 2008 (Mwaniki-Lyman,Pavlakovich-Kochi, and Christopherson, n.d.).Population projections for the region (reported in USEPA’s 2006 State of the BorderRegion) estimate that the region’s population will grow to between 16 million and 25million people by 2030, an increase of 46% (based on the medium scenario analyzed).Declining growth rates since the onset of recession in 2008 may represent slower thanprojected regional growth.
354 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesFigure 16.3 Population density in U.S.-Mexico border region. Population density shading refersto the areas on either side of the border, and not the borderline. Reproduced from EPA (2011).Figure 16.4 Population growth in the western portion of the U.S.-Mexico border region(2000–2010). Adapted from Good Neighbor Environmental Board 14th Report (GNEB 2011). Source:U.S. Census Bureau and Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI).
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Page 336 and 337: Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Page 340 and 341: Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Page 350 and 351: Human Health 327throughout the year
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Page 360 and 361: Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
Page 362 and 363: Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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