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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts 253Transmission Line Exposure to WildfireBox 12.2The most recent study of fire risk in Californiasuggests that most transmission lines in the statewill be exposed to an increased probability of firerisk across a range of different climate models,emission scenarios, and time periods (Sathaye etal. 2012). This figure summarizes changes by theend of the century in the length of lines exposedto areas of either increasing or decreasing burnedarea, the latter being more common. At the endof the century some key transmission lines crossingbetween California and Oregon and betweennorthern and Southern California may face a particularlyhigh fire risk. Certain areas will be lessat risk. For example, transmission lines passingthrough the desert areas in southeastern Californiaare projected to see reduced exposure towildfires in the future, in part due to changes invegetation projected for the future.Figure 12.6 Transmissionline exposure to wildfire.The probability of damage istaken as the product of theprobability fire and the relativelength of the line in a givenregion. Used in this study arethe GFDL (Geophysical FluidDynamics Laboratory), PCM1(Parallel Climate Model), andCNRM (Centre National deRecherches Météorologiques)GCM, and the high- and lowemissionsscenarios as definedby the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change(IPCC) (Nakicenovic and Swart2000). Modified from Sathayeet al. (2012).
254 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesphysical structure. The insulators that attach the lines to the towers can accumulate soot,creating a conductive path and causing leakage currents that may force the line to beshut down. Ionized air in smoke can act as a conductor, causing arcing either betweenlines, or between lines and the ground, that results in a line outage. Finally, even if thelines are protected from fire, the effects of firefighting can also negatively affect transmissionoperation, such as by aircraft dumping loads of fire retardant that can foul thelines or through preventive shutdowns for safety measures.Several studies have shown that climate change will increase the size and frequencyof wildfires in California, which leads the region in wildfire-related economic losses(Flannigan et al. 2000; Lutz et al. 2009; Westerling et al. 2009). Of the ten largest wildfiresin California’s history, seven have occurred since 2001 (CDFFP 2009). Texas, Arizona,and New Mexico have all experienced record-breaking wildfire seasons in recent yearsas a result of increasing temperatures and advanced evaporation (Samenow 2011).Many adverse effects of wildfire risk to the transmission grid can be avoided bycareful planning, increasing fire corridors around transmission lines, building excesstransmission capacity, and using new transmission line materials that provide betterprotection against the effects of soot and heating.There are no studies of fire risk to the transmission grid in the Southwest, outside ofCalifornia. Since fire frequency and cost due to climate change are likely to be particularlyhigh, studies of this issue across the Southwest are recommended. (For further discussionof the effects of climate change on the occurrence of wildfires in the Southwest,see Chapter 8, Section 8.4.2.)Projected IMPACTS of sea-LEVEL rise and COASTAL INUNDATION onpower PLANTS and SUBSTATIONS. California is the only state in the Southwestregion facing impacts from sea-level change (see a detailed discussion in Chapter 9).Mean sea level along California’s coast has risen at a rate of about 8 inches (20 cm) percentury for several decades—a rate that may increase (Cayan et al. 2009). Mean high water,which poses an even more significant threat, is increasing at an even faster rate (Flicket al. 2003). Extreme surge events at high tides, often provoked by winter storms, arealso expected to increase (Cayan et al. 2009). The confluence of these three trends putsincreasing amounts of coastal energy infrastructure at risk: recent studies of sea levelalong the California coast indicate that twenty-five to thirty power plants—includingthirteen located in the San Francisco Bay Area—are at risk of impact from what wouldbe currently a 100-year flood (which will become more frequent) caused by a 4.6-footsea-level rise (Figure 12.7) (Sathaye et al. 2012). vi Many of the plants shown to be at risk,though, are likely to be retired over the next few decades.The vulnerability of power plants to flooding is very site-specific and more informationshould be gathered on a site-by-site basis. It should be noted that in additionto increasing flood risk, sea-level rise may accelerate shoreline erosion and destabilizecoastal power plants and related infrastructure. Further studies are needed to evaluatethe risk posed by soil erosion to energy infrastructure along the coastline.Adaptive measures may be taken to protect power plants against flooding and destabilizationfrom sea-level rise. For example, new power plants should be constructed athigher elevations, farther from the ocean, and out of reach of tidal flooding. In addition,existing plants may be protected by building higher levees.
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Page 248 and 249: Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Page 252 and 253: Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Page 292 and 293: Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
Page 294 and 295: Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
Page 296 and 297: Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
Page 298 and 299: Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
Page 300 and 301: Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
Page 302 and 303: Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
Page 304 and 305: Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
Page 306 and 307: Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
Page 308 and 309: Urban Areas 285California, such inv
Page 310 and 311: Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
Page 312 and 313: Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
Page 314 and 315: Urban Areas 291that may then become
Page 316 and 317: Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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