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Future Climate: Projected Extremes 147iiiEvents with a probability of occurrence of 1% in any given year or 100% in 100 years.iv Another measure of cold waves is discussed in Chapter 5, Section 5.4.v They detected tropical cyclone-related trends in the core NAM region. However, because this isin Mexico and since Barlow (2011) showed that hurricane-related activity contributes only 1% ofSouthwestern precipitation extremes, we did not consider hurricanes and tropical storms in thischapter.vi Mahoney et al. (2012) used a multi-tiered downscaling approach where first a GCM (GFDL) wasdownscaled to 31 mile (50-km) grid as a part of North American Regional Climate Change AssessmentProgram (NARCCAP), using the high-emissions scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000).Then extreme precipitation events in NARCCAP were further downscaled using the WeatherResearch and Forecasting (WRF) model. High-resolution WRF simulations (up to 0.8 mile [1.3km] horizontal grid), initialized using composite future and past conditions were produced.vii Potential sensitivities of model microphysical parameterization (especially hail size distributionto melting hail) merits further investigation. Nevertheless, although based on one GCM projectiononly, Mahoney and colleagues (2012) claim their results are robust due to consistency withdifferent initialized climate projections, and different WRF methodologies (event and composite).viii In winter 2011–2012, at the time of this writing, similar forcings are producing more than expecteddryness, however.ix Teleconnections are persistent large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation that reflect changesin the jet stream or atmospheric waves over very large areas. They can derive from internal atmosphericdynamics or from changes in sea-surface temperatures and convection, as in the tropicalPacific ENSO cycle resulting in, for example, anomalous precipitation patterns in the Southwest.x These are described in detail in Hirschboeck (1991) and Sheppard et al. (2002).
Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordinating Lead AuthorErica Fleishman (University of California, Davis)Lead AuthorsJayne Belnap (U.S. Geological Survey), Neil Cobb (Northern Arizona University),Carolyn A.F. Enquist (USA National Phenology Network/The Wildlife Society), KarlFord (Bureau of Land Management), Glen MacDonald (University of California,Los Angeles), Mike Pellant (Bureau of Land Management), Tania Schoennagel(University of Colorado), Lara M. Schmit (Northern Arizona University), MarkSchwartz (University of California, Davis), Suzanne van Drunick (University ofColorado), Anthony LeRoy Westerling (University of California, Merced)Contributing AuthorsAlisa Keyser (University of California, Merced), Ryan Lucas (University of California,Merced)expert Review EditorJohn Sabo (Arizona State University)Executive SummaryExisting relations among land cover, species distributions, ecosystem processes (such asthe flow of water and decomposition of organic matter), and human land use are the basisfor projecting ranges of ecological responses to different scenarios of climate change.Chapter citation: Fleishman, E., J. Belnap, N. Cobb, C. A. F. Enquist, K. Ford, G. MacDonald, M.Pellant, T. Schoennagel, L. M. Schmit, M. Schwartz, S. van Drunick, A. L. Westerling, A. Keyser, andR. Lucas. 2013. “Natural Ecosystems.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States:A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M.Black, and S. LeRoy, 148–167. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: IslandPress.148
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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