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Future Climate: Projected Average 111Figure 6.6 Water year precipitation (ininches) averaged over California (top),Great Basin (middle) and Colorado(bottom). Source: Bias Corrected and DownscaledWorld Climate Research Programme'sCMIP3 Climate Projections archive at http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/#Projections:%20Complete%20Archives.
112 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesFigure 6.7 Annual precipitation change (in inches) from the historical simulation for thelow-emissions scenario (left), the high-emissions scenario (middle), and percentage ofhistorical simulation compared to the high-emissions scenario (right). Early- (2021–2050),mid- (2041–2070) and late- (2070–2099) twenty-first century periods shown in top, middle and bottompanels. Values shown are the median of sixteen simulations downscaled via BCSD. Source: BiasCorrected and Downscaled World Climate Research Programme's CMIP3 Climate Projections archiveat http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/#Projections:%20Complete%20Archives.the four GCMs used in the NARCCAP experiment are shown for 2055 (high-emissionsscenario only). All the mean changes are negative, although the values are rather smalloverall. For the high-emissions scenario, the CMIP3 models project average decreasesof around 2% in 2035, 4% by 2055, and about 5% by 2085. The decreases for the lowemissionsscenario are only slightly smaller; in 2085 the decrease is 2%, compared to 5%for high-emissions. The mean of the NARCCAP simulations is more negative than themean of the CMIP3 GCMs or the mean of the four GCMs used in the NARCCAP experiment,although the differences are small. The range of individual model changes is largecompared to the differences in the ensemble means, as also illustrated by the spread of
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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10 assessment of climate change in
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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