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Future Climate: Projected Average 109Figure 6.5 NARCCAP multimodelmean change in thelength of the freeze-free seasonbetween 2041–2070 and1971–2000 (top) and simulatedNARCCAP climatology of thelength of the freeze-free season(bottom). Source: Mearns et al.(2009).Heating degree days (a measurement that reflects the amount of energy needed toheat a home or structure) decrease substantially. In general, by the mid-twenty-first centuryas gauged from the mean of NARCCAP simulations, the entire region is projectedto experience a decrease of at least 500 heating degree days per year, using a heatingdegree day baseline of 65°F. v The largest changes occur in higher-elevation areas, wherethe decreases are up to 1,900 heating degree days. Areas along the coast, along withsouthern Arizona, are projected to experience the smallest decreases in heating degreedays per year.On the other hand, cooling degree days increase over the entire Southwest region,with the warmest areas showing the largest increases and vice versa for the coolest areas.The hottest areas, such as Southern California and southern Arizona, are simulatedto have the largest increase of cooling degree days per year, up to 1,000, using a 65°F
110 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesbaseline. Areas east of the Rocky Mountains, as well as the California coast, show increasesof 400 to 800 cooling degree days per year. Areas with the highest elevations,including the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, have the smallest simulatedincreases, around 200 days or fewer. Cooling and heating requirements become acuteduring extreme conditions that fall into the tail of the temperature distribution—heatwaves and cool outbreaks—whose future occurrences and intensity are affected by theunderlying changes in the center of the distribution as described in Chapter 7.6.6 Precipitation ProjectionsThe precipitation climatology in the Southwest is marked by a large amount of spatialand temporal variability. Observed variability over time in parts of the Southwest, asscaled by mean precipitation, is greater than that in other regions of the United States(Dettinger et al. 2011), from few-day events (see Chapter 7) to scales of months, years,and decades (Cook et al. 2004; Woodhouse et al. 2010). The climate-model-projectedsimulations indicate that a high degree of variability of annual precipitation will continueduring the coming century, as illustrated by the ensemble time series of annualtotal precipitation in inches shown in Figure 6.6. This suggests that the Southwest willremain susceptible to unusually wet spells and, on the other hand, will remain prone tooccasional drought episodes.To some degree, the model simulations also contain trends over the twenty-first century,as presented in Table 6.1. It is emphasized that these results have medium-low confidence,however, because the trends are generally small in comparison to the high levelof shorter-period variability and the considerable variability that occurs among modelsimulations. As with the temperature projections, the difference in mean precipitationover a given epoch between simulations is due to internal variability, differences betweenmodel formations, and between emissions scenarios (Hawkins and Sutton 2009).The distribution of the CMIP3 multi-model median changes in annual precipitation, asa fraction of the modeled historical (1971–2000) annual mean, is shown in Figure 6.7 forthe three future periods: 2021–2050 (referred to as “2035”), 2041–2070 (or “2055”), and2070–2099 (or “2085”) and for the low-emissions and high-emissions scenarios. Generally,the median changes shift from drier conditions (than historical climatology) in thesouth to somewhat wetter in the north. In the high-emissions simulations these changesincrease in magnitude through the twenty-first century, but in the low-emissions scenariothe differences over time are not as great and peak near the mid-twenty-first century,as seen in Figure 6.7 and at the right in Figure 6.2. The largest north-south percentagedifferences are for the high-emissions scenario in 2085, varying from an increase of 2%in the far north of the Southwest region to a decrease of 12% in the far south of theSouthwest. The smallest difference occurs for the high-emissions scenario in 2035, withincreases of 2% in the Nevada-Utah area, and a decrease of about 4% to 6% in areas suchas Colorado, New Mexico, and California. However, in the high-emissions scenario inthe late twenty-first century, weak increases are found in median precipitation in southeasternCalifornia and southern Nevada.Figure 6.2, right panel, shows the mean annual changes in precipitation for each futuretime period and both emissions scenarios, averaged over the entire Southwest regionfor fifteen CMIP3 models. In addition, averages for the nine NARCCAP simulations and
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Chapter 13Urban AreasCoordinating L
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Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
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Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
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Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
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Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
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Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
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Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
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Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
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Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
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Urban Areas 285California, such inv
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Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
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Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
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Urban Areas 291that may then become
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Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
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Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinatin
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Transportation 299This chapter begi
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Transportation 301Transportation se
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Transportation 303Other needed chan
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Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
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Transportation 307Disruptions to th
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Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
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Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
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Human Health 313establish policy gu
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Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
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Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
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Human Health 319expected to be more
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Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Human Health 323by climate in multi
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Human Health 325Figure 15.6 Duststo
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Human Health 327throughout the year
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Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
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Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
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Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
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Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
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Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
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Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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