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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities 381and Mexico, ed. L. López-Hoffman, E. McGovern, R. G. Varady, and K. W. Flessa, 23–28. Tucson:University of Arizona Press.Zedler, J. B. 2001. Handbook for restoring tidal wetlands. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.EndnotesiiiiiiivvviviiviiiixxThe Paso del Norte area includes the Ciudad Juárez municipality in Chihuahua, El Paso Countyin Texas, and Doña Ana County in New Mexico.Among the paired cities in the western portion of the border region are: San Diego, California-Tijuana, Baja California Norte; Calexico, California-Mexicali, Baja California Norte; Yuma, Arizona-SanLuis Río Colorado, Sonora; Nogales, Arizona-Nogales, Sonora; Naco, Arizona-Naco,Sonora; Douglas, Arizona-Agua Prieta, Sonora; Columbus, Texas-Las Palomas, Chihuahua; ElPaso, Texas-Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua.For further discussion of interannual and multidecadal precipitation variability on the U.S. sideof the border, see Chapter 4; for Mexico, see Diaz-Castro et al. 2002; Higgins and Shi 2001; Higgins,Chen, and Douglas 1999; Méndez and Magaña 2010; and Seager et al. 2009.For further discussion of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), droughts, floods and hydrologicalplanning on the U.S. side of the border, see Chapters 4 and 5 and Garfin, Crimmins, and Jacobs2007; for Mexico, see Magaña and Conde 2000; Brito-Castillo et al. 2002; Brito-Castillo et al.2003; Pavia, Graef, and Reyes 2006; Gochis, Brito-Castillo, and Shuttleworth 2007; Ray et al. 2007;Seager et al. 2009; Stahle et al. 2009; and Méndez and Magaña 2010.These studies include Hurd and Coonrod 2007; Dominguez, Cañon, and Valdes 2010; MonteroMartinez et al. 2010; Gutzler and Robbins 2011; Kunkel 2011; Reclamation 2011; Magaña, Zermeño,and Neri 2012; Scott et al. 2012; and Chapter 6 of this report.For a discussion of downscaling methods, see Chapter 6, Section 6 of this document.One notable aspect of mean temperature projections for the border region and for western NorthAmerica more generally is that temperatures are projected to increase over the course of thecentury, regardless of the emissions scenario.Consistent with these estimates are statistically downscaled projections of increased maximumand minimum temperatures in summer and winter, with the highest minimum temperatureincreases in the western Sonoran Desert and the highest maximum temperature increases inthe northern Chihuahuan Desert. One set of statistically downscaled estimates of temperaturechanges for the north of the border region (high- and low-emission scenario models) are summarizedin Table 16.2 and another set of statistically downscaled estimates for Mexican border statesin the region (SRES A2) in are summarized in Table 16.3.Garcia-Cueto, Tejeda-Martinez, and Jáuregui-Ostos (2010) note that, in the historic record for theborder city of Mexicali, Baja California Norte, the duration and intensity of heat waves haveincreased for all summer months, there are 2.3 times more heat waves now than in the decade ofthe 1970s, and that the high-emissions SRES A2 projections show that for the 2020s, 2050s, and2080s, heat waves could increase (relative to 1961–1990), by 2.1, 3.6, and 5.1 times, respectively.A special consideration for the western part of the border region in the wintertime could be thatthe circulation may change so that there will be fewer cyclones and more anticyclones (Favreand Gershunov 2009) resulting in (a) less frequent precipitation (this is well corroborated byseveral studies and in many models) and also in (b) more frequent cold spells. The second resultis less certain, studied only in one model—CNRM-CM3 by Favre and Gershunov (2009), in whichMexican data were explicitly considered. Some recent results from Pierce et al. (2012), based onseveral models, suggest that the magnitude of cold outbreaks in January (see Pierce et al. 2012,Figure 6) will not likely diminish in California. This signal should probably extend south of theborder some into Baja California (see Chapter 7).