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SW-NCA-color-FINALweb

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52 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesTable 3.3 Historical, current, and forecasted expansion of urban and exurban lands in thesouthwest (data expressed as thousands of acres [kac]) (Continued)Historical (1950) Current (~2000) Forecast (~2050)GeographyUrbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)Urbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)Urbandeveloped(kac)Exurbandeveloped(kac)UpperColoradoLowerColorado7 112 79 889 15014411811434 269 677 1,665 1,6911,8791,3931,4961,1181,1461,1831,1982,1612,0062,1822,144Great Basin 37 259 283 835 899738769629California 596 2311 2495 7874 49085250481849911,1991,3061,2221,33511,58211,24810,41310,254Source: Bierwagen et al. (2010).Note: These reflect the storylines used in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakićenović andSwart 2000): A1, A2, B1, and B2, from top to bottom.A remaining question of importance for this region is how well emerging “greendesign” strategies will be able to diminish or reduce resource demands for energyand water. Much of the development of alternative resources such as wind and solarenergy has occurred remotely from the urban areas to be served, as has water-supplyinfrastructure. This geographical decoupling can be useful in some settings, but furtherremoves social systems from natural system feedbacks. This can be a positivething, but also can hinder the development of adaptive strategies because of a perceivedlack of need to change behavior.With environmental management decisions taking place at many geographicscales, over different time frames, and by multiple agencies, the coordination of climatechange adaptation strategies will be a particular challenge.

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