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32 assessment of climate change in the southwest united statesprecipitation, and snowpack, as well as the factors that contribute to the unique climatesof the region. Chapter 4 discusses the main factors contributing to regional climate variability,and describes important climate hazards and impacts, such as droughts, floods,wildland fires, air quality and extreme temperatures.Chapter 5: Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions assesses weather andclimate variability and trends in the Southwest, using observed climate and paleoclimaterecords. Chapter 5 analyzes the last 100 years of climate variability in comparisonto the last 1,000 years, and links the important features of evolving climate conditionsto river flow variability in four of the region’s major drainage basins. The chapter closeswith an assessment of the monitoring and scientific research needed to increase confidencein understanding when climate episodes, events, and phenomena are attributableto human-caused climate change.Chapter 6: Future Climate: Projected Average presents climate-model projections offuture temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation (long-term weather patterns)for the Southwest. Chapter 6 also examines projections of hydrologic parameters,such as snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff for a subset of basins in theregion, including the Colorado River Basin.Chapter 7: Future Climate: Projected Extremes summarizes current scientific understandingabout how specific weather and climate extremes are expected to change inthe Southwest as global and regional temperatures increase. Chapter 7 examines heatwaves, cold snaps, drought, floods, and weather related to wildland fires. The chapteralso examines possible changes in weather patterns associated with climate extremes,such as atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds.Chapter 8: Natural Ecosystems addresses the observed changes in climate that are associatedstrongly with observed changes in geographic distributions and phenology (recurringphenomena of biological species such as timing of blossoms or migrations ofbirds) in Southwestern ecosystems. Chapter 8 also examines disturbances such as wildfiresand outbreaks of forest pathogens and discusses issues associated with how carbonis stored and released in Southwestern ecosystems, in relation to climate-change threats.Chapter 9: Coastal Issues examines climate-change threats to coastal ecosystems andhuman habitats, as well as available management and adaptation options such as insuranceincentives. The chapter describes and evaluates key climate-induced impacts,including sea-level rise, erosion, storm surges, and oceanographic factors, includingnutrient upwelling, ocean acidification, and oxygen-depleted zones. Chapter 9 also describesinteractions between existing vulnerabilities (such as human development incoastal ecosystems).Chapter 10: Water: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation focuses on societal vulnerabilitiesto impacts from changes in sources, timing, quantity, and quality of the Southwest’swater supply. The chapter addresses both vulnerabilities related to environmental factors(such as wildfire risk and increased stream temperatures) and issues related to watermanagement (such as water and energy demand, and reservoir operation). Chapter10 describes water management strategies for the coming century, including federal,regional, state, and municipal adaptation initiatives. (Note: Surface hydrology is addressedin Chapters 4–7.)