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Chapter 14TransportationCoordinating Lead AuthorDeb A. Niemeier (University of California, Davis)lead authorsAnne V. Goodchild (University of Washington), Maura Rowell (University ofWashington), Joan L. Walker (University of California, Berkeley), Jane Lin(University of Illinois, Chicago), Lisa Schweitzer (University of Southern California)review editorJoseph L. Schofer (Northwestern University)Executive SummaryThe Southwest transportation network includes major freeways, rail corridors of nationalimportance, and major port- and border-crossing facilities. Recent passenger-traveltrends suggest that vehicle ownership and per capita vehicle miles traveled (VMT) mayhave stabilized across the Southwest, which may be partly attributed to the economicrecession as well as transportation planning strategies such as pricing, transit serviceimprovements, managed lanes, and changes in land-use configurations. However, theSouthwest appears poised to show gains in rail-freight traffic due to imports of foreignproducts, often in containerized cargo or bulk materials.The following key messages highlight major climate issues facing the Southwesttransportation sector:• Many transportation infrastructure projects, currently in planning, design, orconstruction, do not necessarily address the potential effects of climate change.As climate change effects begin to manifest, design and operational vulnerabilitiesof these transportation system elements will appear. (high confidence)Chapter citation: Niemeier, D. A., A. V. Goodchild, M. Rowell, J. L. Walker, J. Lin, and L. Schweitzer.2013. “Transportation.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: AReport Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M.Black, and S. LeRoy, 297–311. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: IslandPress.297
298 assessment of climate change in the southwest united states• Alternative-fuel vehicle sales steadily increased throughout the Southwest until2008. Yet, hybrid and alternative-fuel vehicles constitute less than 5% of the totalpassenger vehicle fleet in the Southwest. Increased heat events, which are confidentlyprojected for the region, may increase vehicle air-conditioner usage andemissions and decrease fuel economy. (high confidence)• The seaports of Los Angeles and Long Beach comprise the largest port complexin the United States and handle 45% to 50% of the containers shipped into theUnited States. Direct impacts of projected climate changes (such as sea-level riseand flooding) to California ports, include more frequent dredging of harborsand channels, realignments of port infrastructure—such as, jetties, docks, andberths—relative to rising waterline. (medium-high confidence)• Extreme heat events, projected to increase during the course of the next 100years, can shorten the life of pavements. Roadway deterioration will have animpact on all trade—including local trade circulation—that occurs between theSouthwest and other U.S. regions, and trade between the Southwest and Mexico.(medium-low confidence)• Increased precipitation intensity, which some studies project for the Southwestregion, is associated with reductions in traffic safety, decreases in traffic efficiency—suchas speed and roadway capacity—and increases in traffic accidents.(medium-low confidence)14.1 IntroductionThe transportation system in the Southwest comprises a number of major freeways,more than 514,000 lane-miles of rural roads, and more than 350,000 lane-miles of urbanroads (FHWA 2011). Rail corridors of national importance and major port and bordercrossingfacilities also serve the region. Recent national statistics show about 484,000million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the Southwest in 2008, roughly 16% of the nationaltotal (BTS 2008). After a number of years in which per capita VMT increased rapidlythroughout the United States, per capita passenger VMT in the Southwest tendedto be relatively stable or even declined during the late 1990s. Yet, in certain parts of theSouthwest total VMT continued to increase.Increased transportation activity combined with an expanding economy until about2007 and increased electricity generation significantly contributed to the long-term risein total CO 2emissions generated by fossil-fuel combustion. In 2009, transportation usesaccounted for about one-third of the total CO 2emissions generated by fossil fuels (EPA2012). California’s transportation-related CO 2emissions, which are higher on averagethan most states, were close to 40% of the state’s total CO 2emissions (California Air ResourcesBoard [CARB] 2008), while Colorado’s transportation-related emissions accountfor about 24% of the state’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Climate Action Panel2007). Despite increased numbers of “clean” vehicles and reduced tailpipe emissionsof traditionally regulated pollutants, the proportion of total GHG from transportationincreased slightly from 29.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2009 (EPA 2012). This may be attributableto increased VMT.
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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Assessment of Climate Changein the
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Abbreviations and AcronymsxiiiNIDIS
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WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWES
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Airport infrastructure 182Vehicular
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Wildfires 317Permissive ecology 317
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20.2 Developing Research Strategies
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2 assessment of climate change in t
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Chapter 4Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 5Present Weather and Climat
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Chapter 7Future Climate: Projected
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136 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
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Chapter 8Natural EcosystemsCoordina
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Chapter 9Coastal IssuesCoordinating
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Chapter 11Agriculture and RanchingC
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Agriculture and Ranching 221water (
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Agriculture and Ranching 223additio
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Agriculture and Ranching 225Irrigat
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Agriculture and Ranching 227may exa
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Agriculture and Ranching 229Dry war
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Agriculture and Ranching 231River w
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Agriculture and Ranching 233decline
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Agriculture and Ranching 235Another
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Agriculture and Ranching 237Howitt,
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Agriculture and Ranching 239Torell,
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Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts
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Page 292 and 293: Urban Areas 269• Monitoring for c
Page 294 and 295: Urban Areas 271Figure 13.3 FEMA 100
Page 296 and 297: Urban Areas 273Urban processes that
Page 298 and 299: Urban Areas 275Figure 13.7 Embodied
Page 300 and 301: Urban Areas 277Atmospheric CO 2conc
Page 302 and 303: Urban Areas 279infrastructure to ha
Page 304 and 305: Urban Areas 281Figure 13.10 Per cap
Page 306 and 307: Urban Areas 283in high-fire-zone ar
Page 308 and 309: Urban Areas 285California, such inv
Page 310 and 311: Urban Areas 287Figure 13.14 Number
Page 312 and 313: Figure 13.16 Average annual rainfal
Page 314 and 315: Urban Areas 291that may then become
Page 316 and 317: Urban Areas 293Eidlin, E. 2010. Wha
Page 318 and 319: Urban Areas 295Quevauviller, P. 201
Page 322 and 323: Transportation 299This chapter begi
Page 324 and 325: Transportation 301Transportation se
Page 326 and 327: Transportation 303Other needed chan
Page 328 and 329: Transportation 305Table 14.2 Potent
Page 330 and 331: Transportation 307Disruptions to th
Page 332 and 333: Transportation 309ReferencesAlpert,
Page 334 and 335: Transportation 311Seager, R., M. Ti
Page 336 and 337: Human Health 313establish policy gu
Page 338 and 339: Human Health 315Figure 15.1 Hazy vi
Page 340 and 341: Human Health 317Heat waves (periods
Page 342 and 343: Human Health 319expected to be more
Page 344 and 345: Human Health 321Figure 15.52010 Wil
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Page 350 and 351: Human Health 327throughout the year
Page 352 and 353: Human Health 329Box 15.2Linking Dat
Page 354 and 355: Human Health 331Co-benefitsThough t
Page 356 and 357: Human Health 333Davis, D. H. S. 195
Page 358 and 359: Human Health 335Jack, D. W., and P.
Page 360 and 361: Human Health 337Parmenter, R. R., E
Page 362 and 363: Human Health 339Vedal, S., and S. J
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Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Bord
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Chapter 17Unique Challenges FacingS
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Unique Challenges Facing Southweste
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Chapter 18Climate Choices for a Sus
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Climate Choices for a Sustainable S
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Moving Forward with Imperfect Infor
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Research Strategies for Addressing
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GlossaryA2 - a greenhouse gas emiss
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Glossary 485or drift) from an exter
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Glossary 487crassulacean acid metab
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Glossary 489evapotranspiration - th
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Glossary 491heating degree days - a
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Glossary 493misery days - days wher
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Glossary 495peer-review - the revie
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Glossary 497sediment load - the amo
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Glossary 499knowledge. Two primary
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Authors and Review EditorsChapter 1
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Authors and Review Editors 503Cruz)
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Authors and Review Editors 505Chapt
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Assessment of Climate Change in the
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