Combating Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

economic, political, and diplomatic strengths to respond to proliferation when it occurs andtarget the weaknesses of specific proliferators. A policy that focuses on prevention isunlikely to succeed.Today, however, both diplomatic and military efforts to combat proliferation too narrowlyconfine the range of tools they employ and the goals they seek. In the case of DefenseDepartment-led efforts, there is a natural focus on military instruments to respond to thepotential threats of weapons of mass destruction. State Department-led efforts, bycontrast, naturally focus on formal diplomatic tools, such as treaties, agreements, andunderstandings, that seek pledges of compliance with international norms or theexpansion of multilateral agreements to limit the transfer of technology and materialsrelated to weapons of mass destruction.A set of effective strategies reflecting today’s proliferation challenges must go much furtherthan this. Strategies are needed to actively orchestrate the entire spectrum of U.S. andallied strengths in trade, finance, military force, intelligence, technology, and diplomaticleverage against proliferators’ clear vulnerabilities in one or more of these areas. Usingintelligence to identify and analyze these vulnerabilities would help focus interagencyoperations to achieve a more comprehensive set of objectives. These would include: (1)effectively dissuading nations from proliferating by targeting and influencing interestgroups or power centers within these nations to recognize the costs of such behavior, (2)encouraging the most hostile proliferating regimes towards internal political changes thatwould either reduce their proliferation activities or lead to new regimes that might give themup; (3) keeping our friends secure enough to defend themselves with our help againstproliferating neighbors so they do not resort to acquiring such weapons themselves, and(4) strengthening the global consensus for proliferation-related norms. These operationsand the specific strategies which they support, moreover, must be updated regularly toanticipate changes in proliferating countries and calibrate instruments accordingly.What we worry about most:• Terrorist acquisition or use of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons• Possession of, and the manufacturing capability for, nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons by Iran,Iraq, North Korea, or other unfriendly states• Diversion of WMD-related weapons, technology, materials, and expertise from Russia• China’s role as a significant proliferator of ballistic missiles, weapons of mass destruction, andenabling technologies:• Destabilizing consequences of WMD programs in the Middle East, South Asia, and East AsiaCombating these threats—and preventing the potential crises described above—requires agovernment that is organized to develop and carry out a coherent, coordinated, and sustainedresponse, using all available tools and an appropriate level of resources.4