Temperature - European Investment Bank

WEST AFRICAN POWER POOL (WAPP) PÖYRY ENERGY LTD.
Mount Coffee HPP ESIA and RAP 2012-09-18
ESIA Report Page 190
Load Forecast
The load forecast was prepared for the Greater Monrovia area including 49 distinct
communities. It is based on the following assumptions:
� Load factor: 0.70
� Diversity factor: 90%
� Losses: 12%.
For the period of the Management Contract, the following three scenarios were
prepared:
� Scenario A1: Constrained Transmission and Distribution Funding and
Committed Generation
� Scenario A2: Constrained Transmission and Distribution Funding and
Committed Generation, Slipped
� Scenario A3: Unconstrained Transmission and Distribution Funding and
Generation.
Scenario A1 is the Base Case. It meets the Management Contract requirements and
demonstrates that the set objectives can be met with the available funds and committed
generation.
For the period covering the year 6 to the year 20 the main assumptions were:
� Funding for Transmission and Distribution by the donor community to continue
but decreasing annually until 2020. Thereafter self-finance by LEC
� From 2020 onward level of investments in Transmission and Distribution tied to
GDP growth forecasts.
The computed maximum peak demands are in MW:
Table 25-7: Greater Monrovia area, maximum demand forecasts
Scenario Qualification 2015 2030
Scenario A1 Base Case 47.8 174.8
Scenario A2 Slipped 33.0 -
Scenario A3 Slipped new gene. 75.1 202.2
For the Long Term Load Growth Forecast, as an alternate method to compute the future
demand, an access rate to electricity of 70% was postulated. This led for the Greater
Monrovia area to a maximum peak demand of 450 MW in round figures in the year
2030.
Considered Energy Supply Options
A detailed review of the possible types of electricity generation sources was carried out
for the preparation of the EMP. Finally the following options were retained to determine
the capacity expansion plan of the LEC system: