global_zero_commission_on_nuclear_risk_reduction_report
global_zero_commission_on_nuclear_risk_reduction_report
global_zero_commission_on_nuclear_risk_reduction_report
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION REPORTDE-ALERTING AND STABILIZING THE WORLD’S NUCLEAR FORCE POSTURESIn reality, nati<strong>on</strong>al command authorities with fingers <strong>on</strong> the<strong>nuclear</strong> butt<strong>on</strong> are fallible, and some are quite susceptible tobouts of irrati<strong>on</strong>al, reckless, and even delusi<strong>on</strong>al behavior.Leader Kim is not excepti<strong>on</strong>al in this respect. There havebeen many occasi<strong>on</strong>s in which the top leaders and seniorcommanders entrusted with resp<strong>on</strong>sibilities for authorizingthe use of <strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s would not have passed thestress tests of their own <strong>nuclear</strong> pers<strong>on</strong>nel reliability programs– standards of sobriety, physical and mental health,etc. During a protracted crisis, the entire chain of commandmay slide into a degraded state from sleep deprivati<strong>on</strong> andexhausti<strong>on</strong> al<strong>on</strong>e.Israel’s <strong>nuclear</strong> status is opaque and speculative. 36 Unofficialsources indicate that Israel has established a survivable andfirmly c<strong>on</strong>trolled <strong>nuclear</strong> arsenal that it keeps at a low levelof alert. But a trend toward stepping up the resp<strong>on</strong>sivenessof sea-based forces may be underway. According to some <strong>report</strong>s,Israel is deploying strategic submarines into the PersianGulf that are capable of launching <strong>nuclear</strong> cruise missiles.37 Depending <strong>on</strong> evolving threats in the regi<strong>on</strong> – and,particularly, the outcome of the P5+1 negotiati<strong>on</strong>s with Iran– Israel may establish regular <strong>nuclear</strong>-armed sea patrols inthe future.France and the United Kingdom and each keep their arse-36 Israel runs its <strong>nuclear</strong> program under a thick veil of secrecy, a policysaid to be reflective of an understanding forged 40 years ago betweenPresident Nix<strong>on</strong> and Prime Minister Meir. David Stout, “Israel’s NuclearArsenal Vexed Nix<strong>on</strong>,” New York Times, November 29, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/29/world/middleeast/29nix<strong>on</strong>.html.37 From what fragments of unofficial data are publicly available, a currentpriority of the Israeli program is to acquire a fleet of 5-6 submarinescapable of firing <strong>nuclear</strong>-armed cruise missiles, and stati<strong>on</strong>ing three ofthem in the Persian Gulf to project a <strong>nuclear</strong> threat at Israel’s current and<strong>on</strong>ly <strong>nuclear</strong>-capable adversary, Iran. (Uzi Mahnaimi, “Israel stati<strong>on</strong>s<strong>nuclear</strong> missile subs off Iran”, The Times [Sunday Times], May 30, 2010,http://www.times<strong>on</strong>line.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7140282.ece; “Report: Israel to deploy <strong>nuclear</strong>-armed submarines off Iran coast,”Haaretz, May 30, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/<strong>report</strong>-israel-to-deploy-<strong>nuclear</strong>-armed-submarines-off-irancoast-1.293005.)The latest models of these boats and their weap<strong>on</strong>ssystems run into the billi<strong>on</strong>-dollar range for each, though Germanyhas absorbed a substantial porti<strong>on</strong> of the costs. According to unofficialsources, Israel also possesses aircraft and land-based ballistic missilescapable of delivering <strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s.nals <strong>on</strong> a low level of alert in peacetime – except for <strong>on</strong>esubmarine (out of the four in each country’s fleet) that eachkeeps <strong>on</strong> routine patrol at all times <strong>on</strong> an alert status thatis variable. At any given moment, the U.K. submarine maybe days, hours, or minutes from the next regularly scheduleddeployment of a receive antenna to check for ordersfrom higher authority. 38 During a crisis, this schedule woulddoubtless become more frequent if not c<strong>on</strong>tinuous. Frenchsubmarine communicati<strong>on</strong>s practices and launch readinessare believed to be similar. Also, both France and the UnitedKingdom normally maintain a back-up strategic submarinein port that can be readied and surged to sea <strong>on</strong> fairly shortnotice (approximately 1-2 days) in the event of a serious crisis.C. GROWING SAFETY AND SECURITYCOCNERNS; STRAINS ON COMMANDAND CONTROLTaking steps toward advanced operati<strong>on</strong>al readiness putsadditi<strong>on</strong>al strain <strong>on</strong> the ability of command systems to keep<strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s under firm c<strong>on</strong>trol. It increases the <strong>risk</strong>sof an accident that produces a full-yield <strong>nuclear</strong> det<strong>on</strong>ati<strong>on</strong>,and the <strong>risk</strong> of terrorist capture. Security against terrorismdeclines the moment <strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s are taken out of storageand dispatched to the field to assume combat alert.Most of the countries possessing <strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s appear tobe more than a decade behind the United States in terms ofsafety and safeguards – lagging in areas like <strong>on</strong>e-point safetyfor warheads, insensitive high explosives used as triggers forimplosi<strong>on</strong>, locking devices integrated with the inner workingsof warheads, and pers<strong>on</strong>nel reliability programs.38 France has kept its missile submarines at sea <strong>on</strong> modified alert, andthe United Kingdom has declared that its strategic m<strong>on</strong>ad of missilesubmarines are now routinely at a “‘notice to fire’ measured in daysrather than the few minutes’ quick reacti<strong>on</strong> alert sustained throughoutthe Cold War.” (British Ministry of Defense, Strategic Defense Review,Supporting Essay Five: Deterrence, Arms C<strong>on</strong>trol, and Proliferati<strong>on</strong>,L<strong>on</strong>d<strong>on</strong>: Stati<strong>on</strong>ary Office, June 1998.) The informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> the FrenchSSBN modified alert posture is based <strong>on</strong> pers<strong>on</strong>al communicati<strong>on</strong>s witha French military official.28