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global_zero_commission_on_nuclear_risk_reduction_report

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GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION REPORTDE-ALERTING AND STABILIZING THE WORLD’S NUCLEAR FORCE POSTURESThere might be no better formula for progresstoward a <strong>nuclear</strong>-free z<strong>on</strong>e in the Middle Eastthan a return to a c<strong>on</strong>cept in which two paralleltracks move toward a comprehensive Israeli-Arabpeace, al<strong>on</strong>g the lines of the Arab PeaceInitiative, and to the establishment of a z<strong>on</strong>efree of weap<strong>on</strong>s of mass destructi<strong>on</strong> in the regi<strong>on</strong>.To work, the Arabs must accord to Israelkey benefits of peace before peace has been formallyachieved. Israel, for its part, must recommitto the doctrine of former Israeli Prime MinisterYitzhak Rabin that <strong>on</strong>ly a comprehensiveregi<strong>on</strong>al peace agreement can prevent the MiddleEast from declining into <strong>nuclear</strong> chaos. 85Progress toward peace in Syria, a settlement with the Palestinians,and normalizati<strong>on</strong> of Israeli relati<strong>on</strong>s with all its Arabneighbors could accelerate the <strong>nuclear</strong> disarmament process inthe regi<strong>on</strong>. It would be c<strong>on</strong>ducive to arms c<strong>on</strong>trol if Israel’s relati<strong>on</strong>swith its neighbors do not drastically deteriorate in thewake of the upheaval sweeping the regi<strong>on</strong>. But even adversariescan find comm<strong>on</strong> interest and mutual benefit in arms c<strong>on</strong>trol,as the Cold War adversaries discovered 40 years ago. If the Sovietsand Americans had insisted up<strong>on</strong> sequencing peace and<strong>nuclear</strong> arms c<strong>on</strong>trol talks instead of pursuing both in tandem,little progress <strong>on</strong> either track may have been made.C<strong>on</strong>taining Iran’s <strong>nuclear</strong> program remains a crucial objectivethat is not <strong>on</strong>ly key to Israeli and pan-Arab security but also todiminishing Israel’s attachment to the <strong>nuclear</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>. It is alsothe key to saving the <str<strong>on</strong>g>global</str<strong>on</strong>g> n<strong>on</strong>-proliferati<strong>on</strong> regime. If Iran’s<strong>nuclear</strong> ambiti<strong>on</strong>s can be verifiably repressed, either by dint ofthe mounting pressures being applied today by the internati<strong>on</strong>alcommunity or in the future by a broader regi<strong>on</strong>al agreementthat bans all weap<strong>on</strong>s of mass destructi<strong>on</strong> in the Middle East –and if Iran’s compliance with its n<strong>on</strong>-proliferati<strong>on</strong> pledge couldand would be stringently enforced – then Israel’s nati<strong>on</strong>al securityinterest would be well served by proceeding to downgradethe importance of its <strong>nuclear</strong> opti<strong>on</strong>, notwithstanding the with-85 Shlomo Ben-Ami, “Global Zero Requires Peace in the Middle East,”The Moscow Times, Sept 8, 2011, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/authors/shlomo-ben-ami/382455.html.drawal pangs experienced by some. Regi<strong>on</strong>al security for Arabstates would be strengthened, and the <str<strong>on</strong>g>global</str<strong>on</strong>g> system in place tostop the spread of <strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s would be saved from collapse.In this c<strong>on</strong>text, an Israeli commitment to a <str<strong>on</strong>g>global</str<strong>on</strong>g> multilateralde-alerting regime would make sense.G. KEY NON-NUCLEAR WEAPONS COUNTRIESThe major questi<strong>on</strong> to address here is extended deterrence.Would U.S. de-alerting undermine the c<strong>on</strong>fidence of allieswho shelter under the American <strong>nuclear</strong> umbrella? Wouldthey oppose U.S. de-alerting, even if Russia and other <strong>nuclear</strong>weap<strong>on</strong>s countries also de-alerted? What compensatorysteps would need to be taken to restore lost c<strong>on</strong>fidence?This <str<strong>on</strong>g>commissi<strong>on</strong></str<strong>on</strong>g>, composed of many leaders from the keyn<strong>on</strong>-<strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>s countries, raised no major objecti<strong>on</strong>sto de-alerting to be backed by n<strong>on</strong>-<strong>nuclear</strong> defense to offsetc<strong>on</strong>ceivable <strong>risk</strong>s, and indeed endorse the <strong>report</strong>’s recommendati<strong>on</strong>s.Of particular importance to these countriesis increased transparency. Japan and other countries seekclarity <strong>on</strong> China’s <strong>nuclear</strong> forces and strategy, and redoubledefforts to ensure the de<strong>nuclear</strong>izati<strong>on</strong> of North Korea.IX. A U.S.-RUSSIA EXECUTIVE AGREEMENT TODE-ALERT NUCLEAR FORCESThis model presidential directive lays the groundwork forpursuing a de-alerting agreement with Russia, and a separatemultilateral agreement with the other <strong>nuclear</strong> weap<strong>on</strong>scountries. This secti<strong>on</strong> focuses <strong>on</strong> the bilateral agenda.A. KEY PRECEDENTS FOR DE-ALERTINGA bold precedent was set by President George H. W. Bush at theend of September 1991, when the Soviet Uni<strong>on</strong> began to crumblein the wake of the August coup attempt. U.S. officials worriedthat Soviet c<strong>on</strong>trol over its far-flung <strong>nuclear</strong> arsenal, muchof it residing in Eastern European nati<strong>on</strong>s and Soviet republicsthat were declaring independence from the imploding Sovietempire, might break down and result in the unauthorizeduse of Soviet weap<strong>on</strong>s – perhaps even an unauthorized launchof strategic forces against the U.S. homeland. President Bush50

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