global_zero_commission_on_nuclear_risk_reduction_report

GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION REPORTDE-ALERTING AND STABILIZING THE WORLD’S NUCLEAR FORCE POSTURES• Within three years, 50 percent (425 weaponson each side) would be off of alert,leaving 425 still on alert.• Within six years, 80 percent (680 weaponson each side) would be off alert, leaving170 on alert.• Within ten years, 100 percent (850 weaponson each side) could be off alert ifU.S.-Russian relations have returned tonormal and their security cooperation hasdeepened.12. Form a joint working group to (i) assess the staticpeacetime and crisis re-alerting stability of alternativeconfigurations of de-alerted forces in order todesign optimally stable postures (which appear to beorganized around “tiers” of different types of forceswith varying re-alerting speeds), (ii) exchange informationthat explains the physical de-alerting optionsunder consideration, (iii) estimate time required tore-alert, (iv) propose the arrangements for verifyingthe de-alerting, and (v) demonstrate the end-to-endprocedures of de-alerting and verification. Their expertsshould work together to design, test, demonstrate,and validate de-alerting methods and associatedverification procedures. As part of this jointundertaking, they should compare and share assessmentsof the risks posed by their current strategicpostures, including the risks to the integrity of nuclearcommand, control, communications and earlywarning networks posed by cyber warfare. Theyshould jointly assess the nuclear programs of othercountries, the risks they carry, and remedies includingconfidence-building measures and de-alerting.60 warheads, and ten Topol-M SS-27 missiles withone warhead each, or ten warheads), two regimentsof land-based mobile rockets (18 Topol M missileswith one warhead each, or 18 warheads), and oneDelta IV strategic submarine (16 missiles with 4 warheadseach, or 64 warheads).14. Determine and declare the physical de-alerting stepsthat will be taken at the initial stage of the drawdownschedule. An illustrative set of measures supportedby this <strong>commission</strong> is given below along with estimatesof the time required to re-alert (see next page):13. Thereupon determine and declare the compositionof the de-alerted forces. An illustrative initial configurationsupported by this <strong>commission</strong> is the following:The U.S. would stand down one Minutemansquadron (50 missiles with one warhead each, or 50warheads) plus one Trident submarine (24 missileswith four warheads each, or 96 warheads). Russiawould stand down two regiments of silo-based missiles(ten SS-19 missiles with six warheads each, or86