global_zero_commission_on_nuclear_risk_reduction_report

GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION REPORTDE-ALERTING AND STABILIZING THE WORLD’S NUCLEAR FORCE POSTURESof missile launches and other potential threats through jointwarning centers manned by Russians, Americans, Chinese,and many other nationalities. We may witness joint technologicalventures such as U.S.-Russian early warning satellite deploymentswith the output widely shared with other nations. Overtime, this increasingly <strong>global</strong> cooperation could lead to jointmissile defenses among some strange bedfellows.These trends appear to be deeply embedded in a <strong>global</strong>izingworld of growing economic and informational engagementand mutual dependence among the world’s leading nations.K. GUIDANCE SUMMATIONA transformational change in U.S. nuclear strategy, postureand force structure is urgently needed to squarely address thesecurity threats facing the nation in the 21st century. The currentstrategy inherited from the Cold War perpetuates nuclearstockpiles that are much larger than required for deterrencetoday and that have scant efficacy in dealing with the mainthreats to U.S. and <strong>global</strong> security – nuclear proliferation, terrorism,cyber warfare and a multitude of other threats stemmingfrom the diffusion of power in the world today.Strategic stability based on a bilateral balance of nuclear terror,the unvarnished version of the anodyne “mutual deterrence,”is a dated and less useful construct. Today, stability is a multipolarand multidimensional concern that includes many factorsbesides nuclear forces: cyber warfare capabilities, missiledefenses, conventional forces, special operations and “softer”factors including diplomatic and economic clout.The United States can and will proceed on its own accord tomake many of the necessary changes to its nuclear strategyand force posture, but China and Russia are critical partnersin the resolution of <strong>global</strong> security problems. The importanceof achieving greater security cooperation among our three nationsis difficult to overstate. The world looks to us for leadershipin grappling with the <strong>global</strong> economic, environmental,and security problems of the 21st century, and we cannotexpect to solve these collective challenges while at the sametime maintaining nuclear policies rooted in threats to annihilateone another. Preserving mutual deterrence, a euphemismfor mutual nuclear terror, as the central organizing principleof our relationship obstructs our ability to achieve the level oftrust and cooperation needed to effectively address the realthreats that we and the rest of the world face.“Mutual deterrence” must allow scope for security cooperationand we must persist in our efforts to join China, Russia,and others to set the world’s course toward the total eliminationof nuclear weapons. The path forward is clear: reducedreliance on nuclear weapons, deep bilateral reductions andde-alerting, the convening of the first-in-history multilateralnuclear weapons summit to consider proposals for achievinga world free of nuclear weapons, and seeking a multilateralde-alerting agreement that prohibits placing nuclear forces onan accident-prone posture of hair-trigger launch readiness.These efforts would affirm U.S. support for the NPT, whichcontinues to be the bedrock of the international community’seffort to prevent and roll back proliferation. The Article VI obligationto pursue good faith negotiations for nuclear disarmamentmay have been “essentially hortatory” at one time, buttoday it is and must be taken seriously. Through nuclear armscontrol, the United States shows respect for the nuclear disarmamentaspirations of the vast majority of the Treaty’s 189signatories, and in return the United States can expect them tostiffen their resolve in enforcing the NPT, supporting the P5+1talks with Iran, and pressuring North Korea to end its nuclearpursuits and return to compliance with its NPT obligations(notwithstanding its proclaimed withdrawal).The days of U.S. and Russian lip service to the disarmamentclause of the NPT are over if we hope to preserve and strengthenthe Treaty in the face of growing proliferation pressuresaround the world. And the more the nuclear weapons countriesreduce their nuclear stockpiles, the more vigilant theworld will become in ferreting out and clamping down onclandestine programs and other NPT violations. This collectiveresolve is crucial to the security of the United States andall countries.84