ECONOMY

chapter 31
..............................................................
VOTING AND THE
MACROECONOMY
..............................................................
douglas a. hibbs, jr.
Thepeoplehavebeenpromisedmorethancanbepromised;theyhavebeen
given hopes that it will be impossible to realize ...The expenses of the new
regime will actually be heavier than the old. And in the last analysis the
people will judge the revolution by this fact alone—does it take more or
less money? Are they better off?Dotheyhavemorework?Andisthatwork
better paid?
(Mirabeau [Honoré Gabriel Riquetti], 1791)
All Political history shows that the standing of the Government and its
ability to hold the confidence of the electorate at a General Election depend
on the success of its economic policy.
(Harold Wilson, 1968)
1 Introduction
.............................................................................
The proposition that support enjoyed by rulers among the ruled is decisively affected
by economic conditions undoubtedly has been true since the formation of the first
political communities. Empirical studies of systematic connections of voting and
∗ I am grateful to Nicola Acocella, Larry Bartels, John Ferejohn, Morris Fiorina, and Dennis Mueller
for comments on drafts of this chapter.