Elevatori Magazine 3-2023

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“The increased wait-and-see attitude, coupled with the concomitant rise in interest rates - concluded Luca Dondi DallʼOrologio -, has propitiated a rise in sector yields from the meagre levels at which they had settled, favouring the repricing process that the new scenario makes inescapable. The extent of the correction will depend on the severity of the current slowdown and on the orientation that the ECB will give to monetary policies in the coming months.” MONITORING CITIES BETWEEN THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS There are two real estate clusters monitored by Nomisma: primary markets, referring to the 13 main Italian cities, and secondary markets, defined as intermediate or provincial. Going into the Reportʼs details, the evidence emerging from the monitoring conducted on intermediate cities confirms the continuation of a positive price trend (+3.1% on an annual basis), although it is in the major markets that any recessionary signals are expected to appear. In the cluster of markets analysed by the report, a certain heterogeneity of performance can be observed, mainly due to the time lags that marked the reversal phases of real estate cycles. In no case did the change in prices allow for an effective safeguard in real terms of real estate values. Nomisma also points out that, over the past year, the time it takes to finalise the sale of a home has actually shortened slightly (5.4 months on average), not deviating from the levels reached in 2021. Among the markets monitored, it is Trieste that has the shortest time to conclude a sale negotiation (3 months for a used home). Considering the average discount on the asking price, this stood at 10.6% in the residential segment, with Trieste, Verona and Parma representing the markets with the greatest liquidity. The situation on the rental side is more dynamic: in addition to the long-term stable demand, there is also the temporarily unsuccessful demand for property. This results in upward pressure on rents of a greater magnitude than price dynamics. Gross rental yields, on average of the 13 markets monitored, did not change significantly and averaged 5.5% in the residential sector. The average time to rent a house reached the lowest levels of the period (2000-2023), falling to 1.5 months. On the corporate side, however, the situation revealed by the Nomisma analysis appears more articulated. Just when the upturn in the sector seemed to be proceeding at a brisk pace, with volumes returning to levels close to historic highs, the progressive weakening of economic growth prospects has caused unresolved doubts to re-emerge on the part of foreign investors regarding the countryʼs prospects and the “L’accresciuto attendismo, associato al contestuale aumento dei tassi di interesse - ha concluso Luca Dondi Dall’Orologio -, ha propiziato una risalita dei rendimenti di settore dagli esigui livelli su cui si erano attestati, favorendo quel processo di repricing che il nuovo scenario rende di fatto ineludibile. L’entità della correzione dipenderà dalla severità del rallentamento in atto e dall’orientamento che la BCE darà alle politiche monetarie dei prossimi mesi”. IL MONITORAGGIO SULLE CITTÀ FRA CONGIUNTURA E MERCATI DI RIFERIMENTO Sono due i cluster immobiliari monitorati da Nomisma: i mercati primari, riferiti alle 13 principali città italiane, e i mercati secondari, definiti come intermedi o di provincia. Entrando nel dettaglio del Rapporto, le evidenze emerse dal monitoraggio condotto sulle città intermedie confermano il perdurare di un’intonazione positiva dei prezzi (+3,1% su base annua), anche se è in corrispondenza dei maggiori mercati che ci si aspetta la comparsa di eventuali segnali recessivi. Nel cluster di mercati analizzati dal rapporto è riscontrabile una certa eterogeneità delle performance dovuta principalmente agli sfasamenti temporali che hanno segnato le fasi di inversione dei cicli immobiliari. In nessun caso la variazione dei prezzi ha consentito un’effettiva salvaguardia in termini reali dei valori immobiliari. Nomisma evidenzia anche come, nell’ultimo anno, i tempi per finalizzare la vendita di un’abitazione si siano in realtà leggermente accorciati (5,4 mesi in media), non discostandosi dai livelli raggiunti a consuntivo del 2021. Tra i mercati monitorati è Trieste a far segnare i tempi più bassi per concludere una trattativa di vendita (3 mesi per un’abitazione usata). Considerando lo sconto medio praticato sul prezzo richiesto, questo si è attestato al 10,6% nel comparto abitativo, con Trieste, Verona e Parma a rappresentare i mercati con maggiore liquidità. La situazione sul versante locativo risulta più dinamica: alla domanda stabile di lungo periodo si aggiunge quella temporaneamente impossibilitata ad accedere alla proprietà. Ne deriva, quindi, una pressione rialzista sui canoni di entità maggiore a quella della dinamica dei prezzi. I rendimenti lordi da locazione, nella media dei 13 mercati monitorati, non hanno subito variazioni significative e si attestano in media sul 5,5% nel residenziale. Hanno raggiunto i livelli minimi del periodo (2000-2023) i tempi medi per affittare un’abitazione, scesi a 1,5 mesi. Sul versante corporate, invece, la situazione rilevata dall’analisi Nomisma appare più articolata. Proprio quando la risalita del comparto sembrava procedere con passo spedito, con volumi tornati su livelli prossimi ai massimi storici, il progressivo indebolimento delle prospettive di crescita economica ha fatto riemergere i dubbi irrisolti da parte degli investitori stranieri relativamente alle prospettive del Paese e alla sostenibilità del debito 16 ELEVATORIMAGAZINE.COM 2023 MAY | JUNE • MAGGIO | GIUGNO 2023
We invite you to join ELEVCON Prague ELEVCON 2023 The 23rd International Congress on Vertical Transportation Technologies June 20-22, 2023, Grandior Hotel, Prague, Czech Republic 3 Days of Outstanding Professional Presentations I Networking I Social Activities ELEVCON 2023 - Steering Committee: Dr. Marja-Liisa Siikonen, Finland, MLS Lift Consulting Ltd. ELEVCON 2023 Chairwoman & Programme Manager Mr. John Inglis, OAM, Australia, IAEE President Emeritus Mr. Robert Nicholson, U.S.A, Architectural Elevator Consulting, LLC Dr. Albert So, U.S.A & Hong Kong, Scientific Advisor, IAEE Mr. Sefa Targit, Turkey, MAKFED Turkish Machinery Federation Mr. Gil Stier, Israel, IAEE Administrative Board Chairman Elevcon 2023 Secretariat (IAEE): Information and Registration, Ms. Karen Krull: congress@elevcon.com 2023 MAY | JUNE • MAGGIO | GIUGNO 2023 www.elevcon.com ELEVATORIMAGAZINE.COM 17
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Elevatori Magazine 3-2023

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