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METRO GROUP : ANNUAL REPORT 2011 : BUSINESS
→ GROUP MANAGEMENT REPORT : 12. SUPPlEMENTARy ANd fOREcAST REPORT
as the economy cools, the inflation rate will fall. price
pressure on raw materials gradually eased in the second
half of 2011. Given the weakening of demand, expansive
monetary policies will not fuel price increases over the
short term. For this reason, the rise in consumer prices is
expected to be lower in 2012 than it was in the past year.
The slowing economy, combined with ongoing consolidation
and savings efforts in many european countries to stabilise
sovereign debt, is having a negative impact on disposable
incomes and consumer purchasing power. The economic
downturn in many countries has also halted the drop in
unemployment, clouding consumer confidence in the process.
The worsening business conditions will hamper the
retail business in 2012 and 2013. But we expect that the
retail sector as a whole will be hit to a lesser degree than
others by the economic slowdown.
germany
after producing robust economic growth of 3 percent in
2011, Germany will be unable to escape the impact of the
european sovereign debt crisis in 2012. as a result of its
high level of exports, Germany will feel the headwind being
produced by the weak economies of many eU members.
leading economic research institutes therefore expect
growth to slow dramatically, but also believe that the impact
will remain moderate for Germany. early economic indicators
are already pointing upward. overall, the German economy
is in good shape and highly competitive compared with
most other eU countries.
The positive trend on the labour market will continue in
2012. Unemployment is expected to continue to fall – but at a
considerably slower pace. Together with decreasing inflation,
this should boost disposable income. private consumption
and the retailing business will likely remain stable in
2012, even if overall growth will be somewhat lower than in
2011. a moderately positive development is expected for
2013 if the effects of the euro crisis on the German economy
do not intensify.
western Europe
at the beginning of 2012, many countries in Western europe
were experiencing an economic contraction or were on the
brink of recession. Both the worsening sovereign debt crisis
and the growing efforts to consolidate government budgets
are having an increasing effect on the real economy.
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For the entire year, we, like most economic experts, foresee a
stagnation of Western european economies at best. Hardly any
country will be able to escape the pull of this downward movement.
nonetheless, the uneven pattern of economic growth
will probably continue in 2012 and 2013. Countries that are
likely to produce relatively strong growth in 2012 are austria,
switzerland and the scandinavian countries. France, the
United Kingdom and the Benelux countries, on the other hand,
will experience rather slow economic growth. economic output
is expected to contract in Italy, portugal and spain in 2012. We
expect a recovery from mid-year, but this recovery will be
closely tied to further developments in the sovereign debt
crisis in the eurozone. This assessment also applies to 2013.
The retail industry is expected to withstand the weakening
economy relatively better than other sectors. labour market
trends will play a role here. although labour markets will feel
the impact of the economic slowdown, no increase in jobless
figures compared with 2011 is expected in many economies.
Eastern Europe
The eurozone’s financial and sovereign debt crisis is impacting
the economies of eastern europe as well. The economic
recovery is weakening, unemployment is falling more slowly,
and the overall situation of many countries in the region
remains uncertain. The difficulties being experienced in
Western europe are also having a negative impact on eastern
europe’s export economy and on direct foreign investments.
even though sovereign debt in most eastern european countries
has not reached the high levels of Western europe, new
debt is rising at an alarming rate. at the same time, lending
conditions are being tightened. altogether, growth forecasts
have darkened and risks have increased.
like Western europe, economic trends in eastern europe are
very heterogeneous. poland and Russia will probably generate
solid growth in 2012 and 2013. The momentum of the
Turkish economy, however, which grew by more than 7 percent
in 2011, will slow considerably. Countries that will continue
to feel a negative impact will primarily be Bulgaria,
Croatia, Hungary and serbia. Greece’s economy will probably
contract again in 2012.
viewed from the perspective of all eastern european countries,
growth rates will be slower in 2012 than they were in
the previous year. But they will gradually recover in 2013. By
contrast, the retail industry will probably continue to perform
well in 2012 as it did in 2011. In the process, growth rates may