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METRO GROUP : ANNUAL REPORT 2011 : BUSINESS → GROUP MANAGEMENT REPORT : 12. SUPPlEMENTARy ANd fOREcAST REPORT as the economy cools, the inflation rate will fall. price pressure on raw materials gradually eased in the second half of 2011. Given the weakening of demand, expansive monetary policies will not fuel price increases over the short term. For this reason, the rise in consumer prices is expected to be lower in 2012 than it was in the past year. The slowing economy, combined with ongoing consolidation and savings efforts in many european countries to stabilise sovereign debt, is having a negative impact on disposable incomes and consumer purchasing power. The economic downturn in many countries has also halted the drop in unemployment, clouding consumer confidence in the process. The worsening business conditions will hamper the retail business in 2012 and 2013. But we expect that the retail sector as a whole will be hit to a lesser degree than others by the economic slowdown. germany after producing robust economic growth of 3 percent in 2011, Germany will be unable to escape the impact of the european sovereign debt crisis in 2012. as a result of its high level of exports, Germany will feel the headwind being produced by the weak economies of many eU members. leading economic research institutes therefore expect growth to slow dramatically, but also believe that the impact will remain moderate for Germany. early economic indicators are already pointing upward. overall, the German economy is in good shape and highly competitive compared with most other eU countries. The positive trend on the labour market will continue in 2012. Unemployment is expected to continue to fall – but at a considerably slower pace. Together with decreasing inflation, this should boost disposable income. private consumption and the retailing business will likely remain stable in 2012, even if overall growth will be somewhat lower than in 2011. a moderately positive development is expected for 2013 if the effects of the euro crisis on the German economy do not intensify. western Europe at the beginning of 2012, many countries in Western europe were experiencing an economic contraction or were on the brink of recession. Both the worsening sovereign debt crisis and the growing efforts to consolidate government budgets are having an increasing effect on the real economy. → p. 167 For the entire year, we, like most economic experts, foresee a stagnation of Western european economies at best. Hardly any country will be able to escape the pull of this downward movement. nonetheless, the uneven pattern of economic growth will probably continue in 2012 and 2013. Countries that are likely to produce relatively strong growth in 2012 are austria, switzerland and the scandinavian countries. France, the United Kingdom and the Benelux countries, on the other hand, will experience rather slow economic growth. economic output is expected to contract in Italy, portugal and spain in 2012. We expect a recovery from mid-year, but this recovery will be closely tied to further developments in the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. This assessment also applies to 2013. The retail industry is expected to withstand the weakening economy relatively better than other sectors. labour market trends will play a role here. although labour markets will feel the impact of the economic slowdown, no increase in jobless figures compared with 2011 is expected in many economies. Eastern Europe The eurozone’s financial and sovereign debt crisis is impacting the economies of eastern europe as well. The economic recovery is weakening, unemployment is falling more slowly, and the overall situation of many countries in the region remains uncertain. The difficulties being experienced in Western europe are also having a negative impact on eastern europe’s export economy and on direct foreign investments. even though sovereign debt in most eastern european countries has not reached the high levels of Western europe, new debt is rising at an alarming rate. at the same time, lending conditions are being tightened. altogether, growth forecasts have darkened and risks have increased. like Western europe, economic trends in eastern europe are very heterogeneous. poland and Russia will probably generate solid growth in 2012 and 2013. The momentum of the Turkish economy, however, which grew by more than 7 percent in 2011, will slow considerably. Countries that will continue to feel a negative impact will primarily be Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and serbia. Greece’s economy will probably contract again in 2012. viewed from the perspective of all eastern european countries, growth rates will be slower in 2012 than they were in the previous year. But they will gradually recover in 2013. By contrast, the retail industry will probably continue to perform well in 2012 as it did in 2011. In the process, growth rates may
METRO GROUP : ANNUAL REPORT 2011 : BUSINESS → GROUP MANAGEMENT REPORT : 12. SUPPlEMENTARy ANd fOREcAST REPORT come closer together: while countries with strong growth, like Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, will be unable to completely maintain the high pace, the delayed recovery in Bulgaria and Romania will have an even stronger impact on the retail industry. overall, retail sales growth in eastern europe will fail to match pre-crisis rates. like asia, the region continues to have high economic potential. For this reason, we expect eastern europe to generate strong economic momentum over the medium term. Asia/Africa Despite a slight slowdown in economic momentum and other persistent risks, the emerging markets of asia will likely remain the region with the strongest growth in 2012 and 2013. Retail momentum will remain high as well. For China, India, pakistan and vietnam, we expect nominal double-digit growth. For egypt, we expect positive trends in spite of a certain amount of political uncertainty. The Japanese economy has got back on its feet following the earthquake disaster in 2011, but little more than a small gain can be expected in this saturated market in 2012. Building on our forecast for economic and retail sector development, the following section provides an overview of the resulting implications for individual sectors as well as our sales divisions. Future sector trends and development at METRO gROUP Metro Cash & Carry Macroeconomic parameters will shape the cash & carry business in 2012 and 2013. economic output will continue to vary not only among regions, but also within regions. as a result, we expect a continuation of divergent developments in the cash & carry segment. as a result of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, we do not foresee any substantial growth momentum for the cash & carry segment in Germany and Western europe. although demand for food will stabilise at the previous year’s levels, positive effects from price increases will be weaker at least in 2012 than they were in the previous year. nonfood sales may fall slightly. In countries that are particularly feeling the effects of the euro crisis, the cash & carry segment may experience a moderate setback. In Western european countries that are less affected by the crisis, we foresee stable and slightly rising sales in cash & carry. → p. 168 at least in 2012, growth generated by cash & carry in eastern europe is likely to fall slightly short of the previous year’s level. The sector’s performance will continue to be fuelled by growing demand, while the impact of price increases will wane. In Russia and Turkey, the cash & carry segment will produce good growth amid favourable economic conditions. By contrast, a bottom is expected to form in Greece only at some point in 2012 as a result of the country’s faltering economy. sales will fall once more as a result. The cash & carry segment should generate limited growth from 2013. The cash & carry segment will perform well in asia in 2012 and 2013. It continues to generate very strong growth rates in this region and is producing more momentum than modern food retailing. In some asian countries, including India, international companies run into market-entry barrie rs designed to protect traditional food retailing. on the one hand, traditional retailers remain a major customer base for the cash & carry segment as a result. on the other, cash & carry faces only weak competition from other modern formats in food retailing. Metro Cash & Carry will push ahead with its international expansion in 2012 and 2013. The focus will remain on the growth regions of asia and eastern europe. Real Because food serves to meet a direct need, demand for it is subject to economic swings only to a relatively low degree. For this reason, we expect that demand in German food retailing during 2012 and 2013 will remain at about the level of the previous year. This should also be the case if the economy slows more than experts expect at the moment. Given the weakening economy and the continued intense competition, particularly among discounters, price increases for food will ease again in 2012. overall, we expect the growth generated by food retailing in 2012 and 2013 to remain below the level of 2011. In eastern europe, food retailing will continue to grow in 2012 and 2013. We expect growth rates to slow in this region because inflation is easing as a result of the financial and debt crisis in Western europe. The continuing expansion in modern food retailing will continue to produce positive growth momentum in 2012 and 2013. We believe that large hypermarkets will remain the growth drivers and that their role in food retailing will continue to expand.
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