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Ayrıntılı Bilimsel Program ve Bildiri Özetleri - YAEM2010

Ayrıntılı Bilimsel Program ve Bildiri Özetleri - YAEM2010

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C2-09<br />

YAEM 2010<br />

YÖNEYLEM ARAÞTIRMASI VE ENDÜSTRÝ MÜHENDÝSLÝGI 30. ULUSAL KONGRESÝ<br />

Olasýlýklý Süreçler 2: Stochastic Processes (I)<br />

2 Temmuz 2010 / 10:00 - 11:30<br />

Oturum Salonu: MDBF L067<br />

Oturum Düzenleyicisi: Süleyman Özekici<br />

Oturum Baþkaný: Süleyman Özekici<br />

Some Robust Dynamic <strong>Program</strong>s in In<strong>ve</strong>ntory Management<br />

and Their Structural Properties<br />

Fikri Karaesmen, Lerzan Örmeci, Zeynep Turgay<br />

Koç Uni<strong>ve</strong>rsity, Istanbul<br />

In<strong>ve</strong>ntory problems with random demand can usually be modeled as<br />

stochastic dynamic programs. In order to sol<strong>ve</strong> these problems, it is<br />

assumed that the probability distribution of random demand is known<br />

with certainty. Howe<strong>ve</strong>r, in most applications this probability<br />

distribution has to be estimated from possibly limited data sets and it<br />

is only known approximately. The robust optimization approach<br />

assumes that the probability distribution lies in an uncertainty set and<br />

attempts to protect the system against this uncertainty. We<br />

in<strong>ve</strong>stigate the<br />

structural properties of optimal policies for some in<strong>ve</strong>ntory models<br />

using robust dynamic programming.<br />

Risk Management in In<strong>ve</strong>ntory Models<br />

Süleyman Özekici, Fikri Karaesmen, Kaan Okyay<br />

Koç Uni<strong>ve</strong>rsity, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ýstanbul<br />

The most important source of randomness in in<strong>ve</strong>ntory models is<br />

demand uncertainty. This naturally constitutes a risk for the manager.<br />

If the demand is unexpectedly low, then there will be lefto<strong>ve</strong>r<br />

in<strong>ve</strong>ntory, while customer demand will not be satisfied due to<br />

shortage in the opposite case. These undoubtedly will affect the cash<br />

flow together with costs and profits. Majority of the literature on<br />

in<strong>ve</strong>ntory models supposes that the decision maker is insensiti<strong>ve</strong> to<br />

risk or he is risk-neutral. But, decision makers are not necessarily<br />

risk-neutral and this fact always<br />

318

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