Ayrıntılı Bilimsel Program ve Bildiri Özetleri - YAEM2010

YAEM 2010
YÖNEYLEM ARAÞTIRMASI VE ENDÜSTRÝ MÜHENDÝSLÝGI 30. ULUSAL KONGRESÝ
takes a leading role in describing the risk attitude of investors in
financial models. We discuss optimal inventory and risk management
policies in a single period model. We use financial instruments like
futures and derivatives to hedge the risks associated with the cash
flow. It is known that the demand or supply for the product is often
correlated with some financial or economic indices or financial assets.
Therefore, one can manage the risks involved in an inventory model
by taking positions in the futures or derivatives markets for these
instruments. The manager now has to determine the optimal portfolio
of these hedging instruments as well as the optimal order quantity.
Nonparametric Bayesian Replacement Strategies
Refik Soyer
Department of Decision Sciences, George Washington University,
Washington, DC, USA
We present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for replacement
strategies for systems that are subject to wear. In so doing, we
consider a semi-parametric model to describe the failure
characteristics of the system by specifying a nonparametric form for
cumulative intensity function and by taking into account effect of
covariates by a parametric form. Use of a gamma process prior for
the cumulative intensity function complicates the Bayesian analysis
when the updating is based on failure count data. We develop a
Bayesian analysis of the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) methods and determine replacement strategies. Adoption of
MCMC methods involves a data augmentation algorithm. We show the
implementation of our approach using actual data.
Reliability, MTTF, and Availability of Systems with Markovian
Missions and Aging
1 2
Bora Çekyay , Süleyman Özekici
1 Faculty of Management, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
2 Department of Industrial Engineering, KOC University, Istanbul
We consider a mission-based reliability system that is designed to
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