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Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the - Solar System ...

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<strong>the</strong> majority of <strong>the</strong> Jupiter Europa Orbiter science goals are achieved <strong>in</strong>dependently of <strong>the</strong> Jupiter<br />

Ganymede Orbiter. In contrast, many key science objectives of <strong>the</strong> Titan mission rely on <strong>the</strong> balloon <strong>and</strong><br />

l<strong>and</strong>er elements, which are <strong>in</strong> an early stage of development. The use of three spacecraft elements at<br />

Titan (orbiter, l<strong>and</strong>er, <strong>and</strong> balloon) also <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>the</strong> complexity of spacecraft <strong>in</strong>tegration <strong>and</strong> mission<br />

operations, <strong>and</strong> thus <strong>the</strong> associated risk.<br />

For <strong>the</strong>se <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r reasons, <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>dependent evaluation of <strong>the</strong> 2008 Flagship mission studies<br />

rated <strong>the</strong> Europa mission as hav<strong>in</strong>g lower mission implementation <strong>and</strong> cost risk than <strong>the</strong> Titan flagship<br />

mission. Estimated costs to NASA as estimated by <strong>the</strong> Decadal Survey (Appendix C) were lower <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Jupiter Europa Orbiter ($4.7 billion <strong>in</strong> FY2015 dollars) than <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Titan Saturn <strong>System</strong> Mission (at least<br />

$5.7 billion, after subtraction of <strong>the</strong> estimated $1 billion cost of <strong>the</strong> ESA-supplied balloon <strong>and</strong> lake l<strong>and</strong>er<br />

from <strong>the</strong> $6.7 billion estimate <strong>for</strong> an all-NASA mission, <strong>and</strong> addition of any potential costs associated<br />

with divid<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> mission between NASA <strong>and</strong> ESA). F<strong>in</strong>ally, <strong>the</strong> outer planets community, as<br />

represented by <strong>the</strong> Outer Planets Assessment Group (OPAG), ranked <strong>the</strong> Europa mission as <strong>the</strong>ir highest<br />

priority flagship mission, followed by Titan. JEO is also given higher priority than <strong>the</strong> Enceladus Orbiter<br />

<strong>for</strong> two prime reasons. JEO’s flagship-class payload will return a greater breadth <strong>and</strong> volume of science<br />

data than <strong>the</strong> more focused payload of <strong>the</strong> Enceladus Orbiter (see <strong>the</strong> discussion of mission size above).<br />

Also <strong>the</strong> severe limitations of <strong>the</strong> Galileo data set, due to Galileo’s low data rate <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> older technology<br />

of its <strong>in</strong>strument payload, mean that our knowledge of Europa <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Jupiter system is now poorer than<br />

our knowledge of Enceladus <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Saturn system, giv<strong>in</strong>g a particularly high potential <strong>for</strong> new<br />

discoveries by JEO at Europa <strong>and</strong> throughout <strong>the</strong> Jupiter system.<br />

Among <strong>the</strong> smaller missions studied by <strong>the</strong> panel, <strong>the</strong> Enceladus Orbiter was given highest<br />

priority because of <strong>the</strong> breadth of science questions that it can address (with <strong>the</strong> potential <strong>for</strong> major<br />

contributions to underst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> chemistry, active geology <strong>and</strong> geophysics, <strong>and</strong> astrobiological potential<br />

of Enceladus), coupled with its relatively simple implementation, requir<strong>in</strong>g little new technology. The Io<br />

Observer was chosen as a New Frontiers c<strong>and</strong>idate because of its compell<strong>in</strong>g science <strong>and</strong> because it was<br />

<strong>the</strong> only outer planet satellite mission studied <strong>for</strong> which cost estimates placed it plausibly with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> New<br />

Frontiers cost cap. Of <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r satellite missions studied (Appendix D) <strong>the</strong> st<strong>and</strong>-alone Titan Lake<br />

L<strong>and</strong>er was rated lower priority because of its relatively narrow science focus <strong>and</strong> relatively challeng<strong>in</strong>g<br />

technology requirements. The Ganymede Orbiter was rated as lower priority <strong>for</strong> a NASA mission<br />

because of <strong>the</strong> probability that <strong>the</strong> planned European Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter will achieve most of <strong>the</strong><br />

same science goals.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r st<strong>and</strong>-alone Titan mission concepts that could achieve a subset of <strong>the</strong> goals of <strong>the</strong> TSSM<br />

mission are also possible. However, implementation of such st<strong>and</strong>-alone missions is challeng<strong>in</strong>g, as<br />

evidenced by <strong>the</strong> fact that only one additional mission that could replace an element of TSSM was<br />

proposed <strong>in</strong> any of <strong>the</strong> community white papers submitted to <strong>the</strong> Decadal Survey: a st<strong>and</strong>-alone Titan<br />

airplane. 79 This concept is <strong>in</strong>trigu<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>and</strong> is noted above as a possible alternative to a balloon as an<br />

element of a flagship mission. However, high data rates are required to obta<strong>in</strong> full benefit from <strong>the</strong><br />

remote sens<strong>in</strong>g that would be a key measurement goal of an aircraft or balloon. High data rates are<br />

difficult to achieve without use of a relay spacecraft, mak<strong>in</strong>g aircraft or balloons less attractive as st<strong>and</strong>alone<br />

mission c<strong>and</strong>idates than <strong>the</strong> lake l<strong>and</strong>er chosen <strong>for</strong> detailed study. One additional st<strong>and</strong>-alone<br />

mission, <strong>the</strong> Titan Geophysical Network was proposed <strong>in</strong> a white paper (Lorenz et al. 2009), but was not<br />

chosen <strong>for</strong> detailed study because <strong>the</strong> science goals, which go beyond those of TSSM, were judged to be<br />

of lower priority, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> required low-power radioisotope power supplies would require significant<br />

additional development. A st<strong>and</strong>-alone Titan orbiter, without <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong> situ elements might also be<br />

considered, but was not chosen <strong>for</strong> study because it was not proposed by community white papers, <strong>and</strong><br />

because of <strong>the</strong> advantages of an <strong>in</strong>tegrated orbiter <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> situ elements both <strong>for</strong> delivery to Saturn <strong>and</strong> <strong>for</strong><br />

data relay.<br />

PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION<br />

8-36

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