Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the - Solar System ...

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TABLE 9.4 Crosscutting Themes, Key Questions and the Missions in the Recommended Plan That Address Them (see Table 3.1 in Chapter 3 for comparison) Crosscutting Theme Priority Questions Missions Building New Worlds 1. What were the initial stages and conditions and processes of solar system formation and the nature of the interstellar matter that was incorporated? 2. How did the giant planets and their satellite systems accrete, and is there evidence that they migrated to new orbital positions? 3. What governed the accretion, supply of water, chemistry, and internal differentiation of the inner planets and the evolution of their atmospheres, and what roles did bombardment by large projectiles play? Planetary Habitats 4. What were the primordial sources of organic matter, and where does organic synthesis continue today? Workings of Solar Systems 5. Did Mars or Venus host ancient aqueous environments conducive to early life, and is there evidence that life emerged? 6. Beyond Earth, are there modern habitats elsewhere in the solar system with necessary conditions, organic matter, water, energy, and nutrients to sustain life, and do organisms live there now? 7. How do the giant planets serve as laboratories to understand Earth, the solar system, and extrasolar planetary systems? 8. What solar system bodies endanger and what mechanisms shield Earth’s biosphere? 9. Can understanding the roles of physics, chemistry, geology, and dynamics in driving planetary atmospheres and climates lead to a better understanding of climate change on Earth? 10. How have the myriad chemical and physical processes that shaped the solar system operated, interacted, and evolved over time? CSSR, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, Discovery missions JEO, Uranus Orbiter and Probe, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, Io Observer, Saturn Probe, Enceladus Orbiter Mars Sample Return, Venus In Situ Explorer, Lunar Geophysical Network, Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, CSSR, Venus Climate Mission, Discovery missions Mars Sample Return, JEO, Uranus Orbiter and Probe, Trojan Tour and Rendezvous, CSSR, Enceladus Orbiter, Discovery missions Mars Sample Return, Venus In Situ Explorer, Venus Climate Mission, Discovery missions Mars Sample Return, JEO, Enceladus Orbiter, Discovery missions JEO, Uranus Orbiter and Probe, Saturn Probe CSSR, Discovery missions Mars Sample Return, JEO, Uranus Orbiter and Probe, Venus In Situ Explorer, Saturn Probe, Venus Climate Mission, Discovery missions All recommended missions PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 9-20
As noted, the recommended and cost-constrained programs make realistic assumptions about mission costs, based on the Cost and Technical Evaluations conducted in support of this decadal survey. Plausible circumstances could improve the picture presented above. For example, if the mission costs presented above are overestimates, the budget increase required for the recommended program would be correspondingly smaller. Increased funding for planetary exploration could make even more missions possible. If this happened, the committee’s recommended additions to the plans presented above would be, in priority order: 1. An increase in funding for the Discovery program, 2. Another New Frontiers mission, and 3. Either the Enceladus Orbiter or the Venus Climate Mission. Not all of the five candidate flagship missions discussed above can be initiated in the decade 2013-2022. The most likely outcome is that three can be initiated if NASA’s planetary budget is augmented, and two if it is not. It is therefore important to look ahead to the following decade, and to be fully prepared to consider these missions for flight then. The committee expects that all of the five candidate flagships that are not initiated in 2013-2022 will remain strong candidates at the time of the next decadal survey. Therefore, candidate flagship missions from the list above that cannot be initiated in 2013-2022 should receive thorough technical studies and technology investments, so that they will be ready in time for consideration in the next decade. It is also possible that the budget picture could turn out to be less favorable than the committee has assumed. This could happen, for example, if the actual budget for solar system exploration is smaller than the projections the committee used. If cuts to the program are necessary, the committee recommends that the first approach should be descoping or delaying Flagship missions. Changes to the New Frontiers or Discovery programs should be considered only if adjustments to Flagship missions cannot solve the problem. And high priority should be placed on preserving funding for Research and Analysis programs and for technology development. Deferred High-Priority Missions The committee identified a number of additional large missions that are of high scientific value but that are not recommended for the decade 2013-2022 for a variety of reasons. In alphabetical order, these missions are: • Ganymede Orbiter—This mission’s primary science objectives are the characterization of the satellite’s subsurface ocean, geology, magnetic field, and origin. These objectives will be addressed through three mission phases: a Ganymede flyby phase, a pump-down phase, and an orbital tour phase of 3, 6, or 12 months. Consideration of the Ganymede Orbiter is deferred to the decade following 2013- 2022 because of its lower science return per dollar relative to the JEO mission, and because EJSM as currently envisioned would include an ESA-provided spacecraft to study Ganymede, making this mission largely redundant. • Mars Sample Return Lander—This, the second component of the Mars Sample Return campaign, consists of a fetch rover to retrieve cached samples on the martian surface and an ascent vehicle to launch the samples into Mars orbit. The MAX-C caching rover will have deposited a small cache container of rock cores on the surface for pickup; the lander would then target a landing ellipse containing the cache and dispatch its fetch rover to retrieve and return the cache to the ascent vehicle. While the fetch process is underway, regolith samples would be collected via a scoop on the lander’s arm; these would also be transferred to the ascent vehicle. The ascent vehicle would then launch the samples into Mars orbit. As noted above, the committee assumes that a significant fraction of the combined cost PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 9-21
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PREPUBLICATION COPY Subject to Furt
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The National Academy of Sciences is
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COMMITTEE ON THE PLANETARY SCIENCE
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STAFF DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Progra
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Preface Strategic planning activiti
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statement of task’s call for “i
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Understand the Processes That Contr
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Executive Summary In recent years,
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however, that the Discovery program
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• Jupiter Europa Orbiter (descope
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TABLE ES.2 Medium Class Missions—
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Summary This report was requested b
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• Recent volcanic activity on Ven
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Mission Study Process and Technical
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Near the end of the past decade, NA
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• Mars Astrobiology Explorer-Cach
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development, and descoped or cancel
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Plausible circumstances could impro
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Data Distribution and Archiving Dat
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Sample curation facilities are crit
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consider making equivalent systems
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committee concluded that for the mo
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alanced ground-based solar astronom
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1 Introduction to Planetary Science
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THE 2002 SOLAR SYSTEM EXPLORATION D
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Medium The first decadal survey ide
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FIGURE 1.6 Victoria crater as image
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FIGURE 1.8 The mirror for the Large
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FIGURE 1.10 From a comet, to the de
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• The committee’s programmatic
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• Opportunities for joint venture
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FIGURE 1.14 Schematic showing the f
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2 National and International Progra
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FIGURE 2.3 Sand dunes on Mars photo
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NASA’s Earth Science Division Pla
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More recently, among the goals of t
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FIGURE 2.6 A natural bridge on the
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investigations should still be deve
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FIGURE 2.10 The surface of Titan as
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3 Shared objectives that incorporat
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3 Priority Questions in Planetary S
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• How have the myriad chemical an
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How Did the Giant Planets and Their
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heavy bombardment? Clues to address
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Did Mars or Venus Host Ancient Aque
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We lack critical geophysical data a
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detected in time. The report conclu
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How Have the Myriad of Chemical and
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13. P.R. Estrada, I. Mosqueira, J.J
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51. M.J. Mumma, G.L. Villanueva, R.
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4 The Primitive Bodies: Building Bl
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FIGURE 4.1 Asteroids and comet nucl
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• How do the compositions of pres
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Future Directions for Investigation
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Astrobiology is the study of the or
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Important Questions Some important
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observations of the outer parts of
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Sample Curation and Laboratory Faci
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In the previous decadal survey, CCS
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asteroid (either ice-rock or metal-
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hazard. Asteroid 433 Eros, one of t
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BOX 4.1 The Discovery Program, Vita
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ody exploration can be achieved by
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34. H.H. Hsieh and D. Jewitt. 2006.
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FIGURE 5.1 Mercury, Venus, and the
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Constrain the Bulk Composition of t
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from Venus Express and Galileo may
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• Understand the composition and
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• Is there evidence of environmen
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Important Questions Some important
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timescales, including the possible
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that may have fostered life, there
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• Venus In Situ Explorer • Sout
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FIGURE 5.3 Venus’s climate is con
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Important scientific objectives tha
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BOX 5.1 Planetary Roadmaps Roadmaps
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4. D.J. Lawrence, W.C. Feldman, J.O
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6 Mars: Evolution of an Earth-like
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BOX 6.1 Mars Science Laboratory Sch
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live there now?”—both key compo
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characteristics (water, gradients i
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availability, physicochemical facto
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UNDERSTAND THE PROCESSES AND HISTOR
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FIGURE 6.4 Examples of recent clima
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particularly the polar-layered depo
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FIGURE 6.6 Geologic time sequence o
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Future Directions for Investigation
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planets and for understanding subse
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experiments, compounded by the unce
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Curation Martian samples require sc
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particle sizes, wavelength ranges,
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environmental conditions including
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Mars Polar Climate Mission As a fol
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R.E. Arvidson, C.C. Allen, D.J. Des
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27. J. Grotzinger, J.F. Bell III, W
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B.M. Jakosky and R.J. Phillips. 200
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72. White papers received by decada
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(MRR-SAG). Posted by the Mars Explo
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the solar system formed. Understand
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FIGURE 7.2 Left: This Hubble image
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temperatures, helium is enhanced in
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FIGURE 7.4 The intrinsic specific l
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Investigate the Chemistry of Giant
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Jupiters seen around other stars in
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• What causes the enormous differ
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FIGURE 7.5 Top: This composite comp
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EXPLORING THE GIANT PLANET’S ROLE
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destroy areas of land equivalent to
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• Assess tidal evolution within g
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• What processes drive the visibl
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esolution visible and near-infrared
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INTERCONNECTIONS Links to Other Par
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SUPPORTING RESEARCH AND RELATED ACT
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FIGURE 7.10 Our atmosphere blocks l
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Cassini Solstice Mission ADVANCING
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8. Determine the composition, struc
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Summary To achieve the primary goal
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Outer Solar System; William B. McKi
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TABLE 8.1 Characteristics of the La
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organisms live there now?” Titan
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• Why are Titan and Callisto appa
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Callisto but unlike Ganymede. This
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main findings and recommendations s
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TABLE B.1 Institutional Distributio
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M. Gudipati, Laboratory Studies for
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Scott A. Sandford, The Comet Coma R
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C Cost and Technical Evaluation of
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were all full mission studies selec
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Schedule To aid in the assessment o
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FIGURE C.3 Complexity Based Risk As
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Lunar Lander Network⎯Four Landers
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Caching Mars Rover Mars Astrobiolog
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Mars Sample Return Lander and Mars
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Flagship‐class Europa Orbiter SOU
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Saturn Atmospheric Entry Probe SOUR
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Enceladus Orbiter Spacecraft SOURCE
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Uranus Orbiter with Entry Probe SOU
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SUMMARY Linked technical, cost, and
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Overview The purpose of this rapid
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Conclusions Based on analyses of th
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Technology development was found to
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• Characterize the local meteorol
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• Characterize Ganymede’s uniqu
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landing in the small southern lakes
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atmospheric probe and another a sep
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FIGURE E.1 Projected budget for the
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Biosphere: The life zone of Earth o
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EPOXI: The name of the extended mis
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Late heavy bombardment: A postulate
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Nili Fossae region: A fracture in t
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Protoplanet: A planet in the proces
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Stardust: A spacecraft launched in
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G Mission and Technology Study Repo
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