Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the - Solar System ...

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atmospheric probe and another a separate KBO-flyby spacecraft), as well as a “high performance” orbiter. All flyby options relied exclusively on chemical propulsion, while all other options included a solarelectric propulsion (SEP) system. The most complex of the simple orbiters and the high-performance orbiter would insert themselves into orbit about Neptune via aerocapture. The remaining orbiter concepts employed chemical propulsion for this purpose. Most architectures, included a 25-kg or 60-kg primary instrument payload (predominantly based on New Horizons heritage). The “high performance” architecture allocated up to 300 kg in payload mass. All missions called for the use of three to six Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generators (ASRGs), depending on mission architecture. The follow-on point design full mission study focused on an orbiter mission with limited payload and a shallow atmospheric probe (1 to 5-bar terminal pressure). The studies were limited to trajectories without Jupiter gravity assists in order to assess the difference between identical Uranus and Neptune missions without narrow launch window constraints. Mission Challenges All concepts studied had moderate reliability risk due to long mission durations. Furthermore, failure of multiple ASRGs was deemed a moderate risk for all of the “simple orbiter” concepts. The availability of plutonium-238 and other logistical issues associated with ASRGs also incurred moderate implementation risks for all options. For the most elaborate of the simple orbiters and the “high performance” orbiter, the use of aerocapture was identified as necessitating further technology development and therefore posed a moderate programmatic and technical risk. Scheduling constraints were identified for all but the high performance option by the availability of a Jupiter gravity assist maneuver, which would favor a launch between 2016 and 2018, with reduced-performance opportunities sporadically thereafter. Cost increases proportionally from the fly-by missions to the simple and high performance orbiters. The point design was terminated before full evaluation of risk, cost and schedule as it was deemed less technically feasible than a comparable Uranus mission (Appendix C). A Neptune mission without a Jupiter-flyby gravity assist requires aerocapture for orbit insertion. Aerocapture itself not only adds complexity and risk but also makes probe delivery and orbits that allow Triton encounters more challenging. Even with a SEP system, a mission to Neptune has a long duration and thus higher risks for instruments and spacecraft components. Conclusions The flyby mission architectures were deemed to achieve significant science progress since Voyager 2’s visit of Neptune and offer the potential for new KBO science. Even the simplest of the flyby missions exceeded the cost cap of a New Frontiers mission and offered low science return relative to its cost, it was deemed not compelling. More complex missions and orbiters provided a vast gain in science objectives unavailable to flyby missions, but at increased cost; the highest performance option yielded a modest increase in estimated science value for its higher cost. More detailed design work of a “sweet spot” mission design identified technical risks that make a Uranus mission more favorable for the coming decade. Technology development will increase the feasibility of a future Neptune orbiter mission. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION D-14
E Decadal Planning Wedge for NASA Planetary Science The fiscal year (FY) 2011 operating budget for NASA’s planetary exploration program is about $1.46 billion dollars. The President’s FY2011 budget request was the part of a 5-year budget projection covering FY2011-2015. In that projection the NASA Planetary Science Division’s (PSD’s) FY2015 planning budget reaches about $1.65 billion real-year dollars. The committee used that projection in formulating its recommendations. Beyond FY2015 the committee assumed the PSD budget to include only growth equal to inflation for the remainder of the 2013-2022 period covered in this decadal study (currently set at 2.4% per annum). As shown in Figure E.1 there are a number of ongoing flight, research and operational programs that have commitments with obligations that extend into the decade. These include the Discovery Program (missions through Discovery-12 as well as missions of opportunity), New Frontiers (New Horizons, Juno, and New Frontiers-3), Lunar programs (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer), Mars flight programs (largely Mars Science Laboratory, MAVEN and NASA’s contributions to the ESA-NASA Mars Trace Gas Orbiter as well as extended missions for MER, MRO, Odyssey, MEX), Outer Planets (completion of the Cassini Solstice Mission and early selection of EJSM instruments), and Program Core Functions that include Pu-238 investments, advanced multi-mission operations development, PSD program management and various infrastructure activities. The planning wedge used in this report (shown in white) grows from about $500 million in FY2013 to about $1700 million by FY2022. It must be pointed out, however, that although the integrated real year dollar amount under the wedge is ~$12.2 billion for the decade, this must cover continued R&A, Discovery and technology programs as well as new starts for New Frontiers and Flagship missions. If R&A and Discovery were to be maintained at current levels, they would require ~$5 billion of the wedge—in that case the total budget for new mission starts in New Frontiers and Flagships within the planning wedge would be roughly $7 billion over the 2013-2022 decade. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION E-1
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PREPUBLICATION COPY Subject to Furt
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The National Academy of Sciences is
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COMMITTEE ON THE PLANETARY SCIENCE
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STAFF DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Progra
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Preface Strategic planning activiti
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statement of task’s call for “i
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Understand the Processes That Contr
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Executive Summary In recent years,
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however, that the Discovery program
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• Jupiter Europa Orbiter (descope
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TABLE ES.2 Medium Class Missions—
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Summary This report was requested b
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• Recent volcanic activity on Ven
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Mission Study Process and Technical
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Near the end of the past decade, NA
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• Mars Astrobiology Explorer-Cach
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development, and descoped or cancel
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Plausible circumstances could impro
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Data Distribution and Archiving Dat
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Sample curation facilities are crit
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consider making equivalent systems
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committee concluded that for the mo
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alanced ground-based solar astronom
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1 Introduction to Planetary Science
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THE 2002 SOLAR SYSTEM EXPLORATION D
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Medium The first decadal survey ide
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FIGURE 1.6 Victoria crater as image
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FIGURE 1.8 The mirror for the Large
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FIGURE 1.10 From a comet, to the de
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• The committee’s programmatic
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• Opportunities for joint venture
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FIGURE 1.14 Schematic showing the f
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2 National and International Progra
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FIGURE 2.3 Sand dunes on Mars photo
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NASA’s Earth Science Division Pla
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More recently, among the goals of t
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FIGURE 2.6 A natural bridge on the
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investigations should still be deve
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FIGURE 2.10 The surface of Titan as
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3 Shared objectives that incorporat
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3 Priority Questions in Planetary S
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• How have the myriad chemical an
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How Did the Giant Planets and Their
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heavy bombardment? Clues to address
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Did Mars or Venus Host Ancient Aque
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We lack critical geophysical data a
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detected in time. The report conclu
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How Have the Myriad of Chemical and
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13. P.R. Estrada, I. Mosqueira, J.J
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51. M.J. Mumma, G.L. Villanueva, R.
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4 The Primitive Bodies: Building Bl
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FIGURE 4.1 Asteroids and comet nucl
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• How do the compositions of pres
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Future Directions for Investigation
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Astrobiology is the study of the or
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Important Questions Some important
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observations of the outer parts of
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Sample Curation and Laboratory Faci
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In the previous decadal survey, CCS
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asteroid (either ice-rock or metal-
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hazard. Asteroid 433 Eros, one of t
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BOX 4.1 The Discovery Program, Vita
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ody exploration can be achieved by
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34. H.H. Hsieh and D. Jewitt. 2006.
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FIGURE 5.1 Mercury, Venus, and the
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Constrain the Bulk Composition of t
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from Venus Express and Galileo may
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• Understand the composition and
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• Is there evidence of environmen
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Important Questions Some important
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timescales, including the possible
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that may have fostered life, there
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• Venus In Situ Explorer • Sout
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FIGURE 5.3 Venus’s climate is con
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Important scientific objectives tha
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BOX 5.1 Planetary Roadmaps Roadmaps
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4. D.J. Lawrence, W.C. Feldman, J.O
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6 Mars: Evolution of an Earth-like
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BOX 6.1 Mars Science Laboratory Sch
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live there now?”—both key compo
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characteristics (water, gradients i
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availability, physicochemical facto
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UNDERSTAND THE PROCESSES AND HISTOR
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FIGURE 6.4 Examples of recent clima
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particularly the polar-layered depo
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FIGURE 6.6 Geologic time sequence o
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planets and for understanding subse
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experiments, compounded by the unce
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Curation Martian samples require sc
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particle sizes, wavelength ranges,
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environmental conditions including
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Mars Polar Climate Mission As a fol
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R.E. Arvidson, C.C. Allen, D.J. Des
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27. J. Grotzinger, J.F. Bell III, W
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B.M. Jakosky and R.J. Phillips. 200
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72. White papers received by decada
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(MRR-SAG). Posted by the Mars Explo
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the solar system formed. Understand
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FIGURE 7.2 Left: This Hubble image
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temperatures, helium is enhanced in
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FIGURE 7.4 The intrinsic specific l
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Investigate the Chemistry of Giant
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Jupiters seen around other stars in
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• What causes the enormous differ
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FIGURE 7.5 Top: This composite comp
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EXPLORING THE GIANT PLANET’S ROLE
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destroy areas of land equivalent to
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• Assess tidal evolution within g
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• What processes drive the visibl
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esolution visible and near-infrared
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INTERCONNECTIONS Links to Other Par
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SUPPORTING RESEARCH AND RELATED ACT
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FIGURE 7.10 Our atmosphere blocks l
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Cassini Solstice Mission ADVANCING
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8. Determine the composition, struc
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Summary To achieve the primary goal
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Outer Solar System; William B. McKi
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TABLE 8.1 Characteristics of the La
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organisms live there now?” Titan
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• Why are Titan and Callisto appa
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Callisto but unlike Ganymede. This
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valuable window into solar system h
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FIGURE 8.6 Multiple jets, dominated
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FIGURE 8.8 Schematic of the complex
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orbits of Io and Europa), and poten
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Cassini has revealed that most of t
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satellite interiors should include
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hardened technology for Io and Gany
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FIGURE 8.11 After a comprehensive t
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FIGURE 8.12 Galileo color image of
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Titan Saturn System Mission Many Ti
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1. What is the nature of Enceladus
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the majority of the Jupiter Europa
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7. O. Mousis, J.I. Lunine, M. Pasek
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45. K.K. Khurana, M.G. Kivelson, K.
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9 Recommended Flight Investigations
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All of the recommendations below ar
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As discussed in more detail below,
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• Ensure that there are adequate
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TABLE 9.2 Discovery Program Mission
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overarching questions in Chapter 3.
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These five were selected from the s
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The Mars community, in their inputs
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should immediately undertake an eff
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(a) (b) FIGURE 9.1 Notional funding
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As noted, the recommended and cost-
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described above are the existing De
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The projected need decreased from 2
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partnership with the Department of
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10 Planetary Science Research and I
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Through the direct involvement of s
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Theoretical development and numeric
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Defining the Need Jon Miller, in hi
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efforts, can help assure compatibil
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history. And telescopic observation
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Hubble Space Telescope Hubble obser
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Although Ka-band downlink has a cle
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and Planetary Institute. Currently,
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the Green Bank Telescope (GBT), and
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up observations. Likewise, monitori
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11 The Role of Technology Developme
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particular technology item. In gene
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The Requirement for Power Of all th
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proposals and populated by technolo
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TABLE 11.1 Summary of Types of Miss
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Solar System Access and Other Core
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Page 346 and 347: A Letter of Request and Statement o
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Page 358 and 359: C Cost and Technical Evaluation of
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Page 366 and 367: Lunar Lander Network⎯Four Landers
Page 368 and 369: Caching Mars Rover Mars Astrobiolog
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Page 372 and 373: Flagship‐class Europa Orbiter SOU
Page 374 and 375: Saturn Atmospheric Entry Probe SOUR
Page 376 and 377: Enceladus Orbiter Spacecraft SOURCE
Page 378 and 379: Uranus Orbiter with Entry Probe SOU
Page 380 and 381: SUMMARY Linked technical, cost, and
Page 382 and 383: Overview The purpose of this rapid
Page 384 and 385: Conclusions Based on analyses of th
Page 386 and 387: Technology development was found to
Page 388 and 389: • Characterize the local meteorol
Page 390 and 391: • Characterize Ganymede’s uniqu
Page 392 and 393: landing in the small southern lakes
Page 396 and 397: FIGURE E.1 Projected budget for the
Page 398 and 399: Biosphere: The life zone of Earth o
Page 400 and 401: EPOXI: The name of the extended mis
Page 402 and 403: Late heavy bombardment: A postulate
Page 404 and 405: Nili Fossae region: A fracture in t
Page 406 and 407: Protoplanet: A planet in the proces
Page 408 and 409: Stardust: A spacecraft launched in
Page 410: G Mission and Technology Study Repo
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