Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the - Solar System ...

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Schedule To aid in the assessment of concept risk, independent schedule estimates are incorporated as part of the CATE cost estimate. This is especially true for assessment of risk with respect to proposed mission development and execution timelines. Like the CATE assessment of cost risk, schedule risk is also derived from analogies in the historical NASA record. Historical data from past analogous NASA missions, properly adjusted, are used to gauge the realism of the proposed durations of the development phases. Similarly, the time to critical mission reviews (e.g., PDR and CDR) and the time required for integration and testing are evaluated for each mission concept and contrasted with appropriate historical experience. Statistical analysis is utilized to create a schedule probability “S-curve”—i.e., a curve of the probability that a development time will exceed some value as a function of that value. The overall schedule, as proposed, is then adjusted with the historical data in mind. If the proposed schedule for a particular mission cannot be met, the next available launch window is selected. Costs incurred because original schedule cannot be met are then added to the total cost of the mission. The committee requested that the CATE team use the 70th percentile value in its schedule estimate—i.e., there is a 70 percent probability that the schedule will be shorter than indicated and a 30 percent probability that it will be longer. Complexity Based Risk Analysis (CoBRA) is used to develop a comparison of complexity versus cost relative to other missions. Cost The primary goal of the CATE cost assessment is to provide independent estimates (in FY 2015 dollars) that can be used to prioritize various concepts within the context of the expected NASA budgetary constraints for the coming decade (Appendix E). The CATE team developed high-level cost estimates based on the information provided by the various mission study teams with a focus on treating all projects equally. To be consistent for all concepts, the CATE cost process allows an increase in cost resulting from increased contingency mass and power, increased schedule, increased required launch vehicle capability, and other cost threats depending on the concept maturity and specific risk assessment of a particular concept. All cost assessments for the CATE process are probabilistic in nature and are based on the NASA historical record and documented project lifecycle growth studies. Traditional S-curves of cost probability versus cost are provided for each concept with both the project estimate and the CATE estimate at the 70 th percentile requested by the committee indicated. The focus of the CATE costing process is to estimate the cost of conceptual hardware—e.g., instruments, spacecraft bus, landers—using multiple analogies and cost models based on historical data. A probabilistic cost-risk analysis is employed to estimate appropriate cost reserves. Ensuring consistency across the range of concepts—from those that are immature to those that are significantly more mature— the cost estimates are updated and adjusted with information from the technical CATE team with respect to mass and power contingencies, and potentially required additional launch vehicle capability. Using independent schedule estimates, costs are adjusted using appropriate “burn rates” to properly reflect the impact of schedule changes. Finally, the results are integrated, cross-checked with other independent cost and schedule estimating capabilities and verified for consistency before being presented to the committee. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION C-5
FIGURE C.2 Schematic illustration of the process of developing cost versus cumulative risk probability S-curve for a notional mission. The terms MICM and NICM in the upper left quadrant refer to NASA developed instrument cost models. CoBRA COMPARISONS The cost and schedule estimates for the committee’s priority missions are compared to historical experience by plotting cost and schedule as a function of the estimated complexity of the missionresulting in a CoBRA (Complexity Based Risk Analysis) plot (Figure C.3). Such an analysis shows the locus of a notional mission compared to the historical experience of complexity versus cost for other missions. The expectation is that a proposed mission is on the road to success if the locus of the cost (and schedule) versus complexity point lies in the vicinity of the data for successful missions in the past. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION C-6
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PREPUBLICATION COPY Subject to Furt
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The National Academy of Sciences is
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COMMITTEE ON THE PLANETARY SCIENCE
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STAFF DAVID H. SMITH, Senior Progra
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Preface Strategic planning activiti
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statement of task’s call for “i
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Understand the Processes That Contr
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Executive Summary In recent years,
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however, that the Discovery program
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• Jupiter Europa Orbiter (descope
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TABLE ES.2 Medium Class Missions—
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Summary This report was requested b
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• Recent volcanic activity on Ven
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Mission Study Process and Technical
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Near the end of the past decade, NA
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• Mars Astrobiology Explorer-Cach
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development, and descoped or cancel
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Plausible circumstances could impro
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Data Distribution and Archiving Dat
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Sample curation facilities are crit
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consider making equivalent systems
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committee concluded that for the mo
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alanced ground-based solar astronom
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1 Introduction to Planetary Science
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THE 2002 SOLAR SYSTEM EXPLORATION D
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Medium The first decadal survey ide
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FIGURE 1.6 Victoria crater as image
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FIGURE 1.8 The mirror for the Large
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FIGURE 1.10 From a comet, to the de
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• The committee’s programmatic
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• Opportunities for joint venture
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FIGURE 1.14 Schematic showing the f
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2 National and International Progra
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FIGURE 2.3 Sand dunes on Mars photo
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NASA’s Earth Science Division Pla
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More recently, among the goals of t
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FIGURE 2.6 A natural bridge on the
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investigations should still be deve
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FIGURE 2.10 The surface of Titan as
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3 Shared objectives that incorporat
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3 Priority Questions in Planetary S
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• How have the myriad chemical an
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How Did the Giant Planets and Their
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heavy bombardment? Clues to address
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Did Mars or Venus Host Ancient Aque
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We lack critical geophysical data a
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detected in time. The report conclu
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How Have the Myriad of Chemical and
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13. P.R. Estrada, I. Mosqueira, J.J
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51. M.J. Mumma, G.L. Villanueva, R.
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4 The Primitive Bodies: Building Bl
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FIGURE 4.1 Asteroids and comet nucl
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• How do the compositions of pres
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Future Directions for Investigation
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Astrobiology is the study of the or
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Important Questions Some important
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observations of the outer parts of
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Sample Curation and Laboratory Faci
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In the previous decadal survey, CCS
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asteroid (either ice-rock or metal-
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hazard. Asteroid 433 Eros, one of t
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BOX 4.1 The Discovery Program, Vita
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ody exploration can be achieved by
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34. H.H. Hsieh and D. Jewitt. 2006.
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FIGURE 5.1 Mercury, Venus, and the
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Constrain the Bulk Composition of t
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from Venus Express and Galileo may
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• Understand the composition and
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• Is there evidence of environmen
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Important Questions Some important
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timescales, including the possible
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that may have fostered life, there
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• Venus In Situ Explorer • Sout
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FIGURE 5.3 Venus’s climate is con
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Important scientific objectives tha
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BOX 5.1 Planetary Roadmaps Roadmaps
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4. D.J. Lawrence, W.C. Feldman, J.O
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6 Mars: Evolution of an Earth-like
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BOX 6.1 Mars Science Laboratory Sch
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live there now?”—both key compo
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characteristics (water, gradients i
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availability, physicochemical facto
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UNDERSTAND THE PROCESSES AND HISTOR
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FIGURE 6.4 Examples of recent clima
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particularly the polar-layered depo
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FIGURE 6.6 Geologic time sequence o
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planets and for understanding subse
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experiments, compounded by the unce
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Curation Martian samples require sc
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particle sizes, wavelength ranges,
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environmental conditions including
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Mars Polar Climate Mission As a fol
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R.E. Arvidson, C.C. Allen, D.J. Des
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27. J. Grotzinger, J.F. Bell III, W
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B.M. Jakosky and R.J. Phillips. 200
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72. White papers received by decada
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(MRR-SAG). Posted by the Mars Explo
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the solar system formed. Understand
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FIGURE 7.2 Left: This Hubble image
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temperatures, helium is enhanced in
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FIGURE 7.4 The intrinsic specific l
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Investigate the Chemistry of Giant
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Jupiters seen around other stars in
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• What causes the enormous differ
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FIGURE 7.5 Top: This composite comp
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EXPLORING THE GIANT PLANET’S ROLE
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destroy areas of land equivalent to
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• Assess tidal evolution within g
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• What processes drive the visibl
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esolution visible and near-infrared
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INTERCONNECTIONS Links to Other Par
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SUPPORTING RESEARCH AND RELATED ACT
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FIGURE 7.10 Our atmosphere blocks l
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Cassini Solstice Mission ADVANCING
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8. Determine the composition, struc
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Summary To achieve the primary goal
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Outer Solar System; William B. McKi
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TABLE 8.1 Characteristics of the La
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organisms live there now?” Titan
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• Why are Titan and Callisto appa
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Callisto but unlike Ganymede. This
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valuable window into solar system h
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FIGURE 8.6 Multiple jets, dominated
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FIGURE 8.8 Schematic of the complex
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orbits of Io and Europa), and poten
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Cassini has revealed that most of t
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satellite interiors should include
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hardened technology for Io and Gany
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FIGURE 8.11 After a comprehensive t
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FIGURE 8.12 Galileo color image of
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Titan Saturn System Mission Many Ti
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1. What is the nature of Enceladus
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the majority of the Jupiter Europa
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7. O. Mousis, J.I. Lunine, M. Pasek
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45. K.K. Khurana, M.G. Kivelson, K.
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9 Recommended Flight Investigations
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All of the recommendations below ar
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As discussed in more detail below,
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• Ensure that there are adequate
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TABLE 9.2 Discovery Program Mission
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overarching questions in Chapter 3.
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These five were selected from the s
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The Mars community, in their inputs
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should immediately undertake an eff
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(a) (b) FIGURE 9.1 Notional funding
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As noted, the recommended and cost-
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described above are the existing De
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The projected need decreased from 2
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partnership with the Department of
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10 Planetary Science Research and I
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Page 346 and 347: A Letter of Request and Statement o
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Page 352 and 353: TABLE B.1 Institutional Distributio
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Page 358 and 359: C Cost and Technical Evaluation of
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Page 368 and 369: Caching Mars Rover Mars Astrobiolog
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Page 372 and 373: Flagship‐class Europa Orbiter SOU
Page 374 and 375: Saturn Atmospheric Entry Probe SOUR
Page 376 and 377: Enceladus Orbiter Spacecraft SOURCE
Page 378 and 379: Uranus Orbiter with Entry Probe SOU
Page 380 and 381: SUMMARY Linked technical, cost, and
Page 382 and 383: Overview The purpose of this rapid
Page 384 and 385: Conclusions Based on analyses of th
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Page 388 and 389: • Characterize the local meteorol
Page 390 and 391: • Characterize Ganymede’s uniqu
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Page 396 and 397: FIGURE E.1 Projected budget for the
Page 398 and 399: Biosphere: The life zone of Earth o
Page 400 and 401: EPOXI: The name of the extended mis
Page 402 and 403: Late heavy bombardment: A postulate
Page 404 and 405: Nili Fossae region: A fracture in t
Page 406 and 407: Protoplanet: A planet in the proces
Page 408 and 409: Stardust: A spacecraft launched in
Page 410: G Mission and Technology Study Repo
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