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CONSUMPTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY 335<br />

Accordingly, this "mean effect" will reinforce the "variance effect" whenever<br />

d 2 (U1/Ui)/8c2 i < 0, establishing unequivocally the superiority of c/<br />

over tt ; but it will work in opposite direction when d\UxllJ^jdc^ > 0.<br />

Theorem 3.3 may be interpreted as showing that the "variance effect"<br />

vanishes at Ci*, through optimal choice of the prospect ; the sign of<br />

^ — cx* is then determined by the "mean effect", i.e., by the sign of<br />

cHUJUJ/ScS.<br />

REFERENCES<br />

1. K. J. ARROW, Le role des valeurs boursieres pour la repartition la meilleure des<br />

risques, Econometrie (1953), 41-48: English translation: The role of securities in<br />

the optimal allocation of risk bearing, Rev. Econ. Studies 31 (1964), 91-96.<br />

2. K.J. ARROW, "Aspects of the Theory of Risk Bearing," Yrjo Jahnsson Foundation,<br />

Helsinki, 1965.<br />

3. G. DEBREU, "Theory of Value," Wiley, New York, 1959.<br />

4. J. DREZE, Market allocation under uncertainty, European Econ. R'ev., 2 (1971),<br />

133-165.<br />

5. J. DREZE AND F. MODIGLIANI, Epargne et consommation en avenir aleatoire,<br />

Cah. Sem. Econ. 9 (1966), 7-33.<br />

6. 1. FISHER, "Theory of Interest," Macmillan, New York, 1930.<br />

7. J. HIRSHLEIFER, Investment decision under uncertainty: Choice theoretic approaches,<br />

Quart. J. Econ. 79 (1965), 509-536.<br />

8. H. E. LELAND, Saving and uncertainty: The precautionary demand for saving,<br />

Quart. J. Econ. 82 (1968), 465-473.<br />

9. J. MARSCHAK, Towards an economic theory of organization and information,<br />

in "Decision Processes" (Thrall, Coombs and Davis, Eds.), pp. 187-220, Wiley,<br />

New York, 1954.<br />

10. L. J. MIRMAN, Uncertainty and optimal consumption decisions, Econometrica<br />

39 (1971), 179-185.<br />

11. P. PESTIEAU, Epargne et consommation dans l'incertitude: un modele a trois<br />

periodes, Recherches Economiques de Louvain 2 (1969), 63-88.<br />

12. J. W. PRATT, Risk aversion in the small and in the large, Econometrica 32 (1964),<br />

122-136.<br />

13. M. ROTHSCHILD AND J. E. STILCITZ, Increasing risk, I and II, J. Econ. Theory<br />

2 (1970), 225-243; 3 (1971), 66-84.<br />

14. A. SANDMO, The effect of uncertainty on saving decisions, Rev. Econ. Studies<br />

37 (1970), 353-360.<br />

15. L. J. SAVAGE, "The Foundations of Statistics," Wiley, New York, 1954.<br />

16. J. VON NEUMANN AND O. MORGENSTERN, "Theory of Games and Economic<br />

Behavior," Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1944.<br />

486 PART V. DYNAMIC MODELS

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