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EDWARD O. THORP is approximately one of the Markowitz efficient portfolios under certain circumstances. If E = E{P) and R = P — 1 is the return per unit of the portfolio P, let logP = log(l + R) = log((l +E) + (R-E)). Expanding in Taylor's series about 1 + E gives p p 1 /p p\2 logP = log(l + E) + ——; - - • 2 + higher order terms. l +£, i (i + h) Taking expectations and neglecting higher order terms gives 1 a 2 (P) ElogP = log(l+£)- 2(l+£) 2 This leads to a simple pictorial relationship with the Markowitz theory. Consider the E-a plane, and plot (E(P), o(P)) for the efficient portfolios. The locus of efficient portfolios is a convex nondecreasing curve which includes its endpoints (Fig. 1). Then constant values of the growth rate G = E log P approximately satisfy ff (P) G = log(l+£)-^- 2(1+E) 2 This family of curves is illustrated in Fig. 1 and the (efficient) portfolio which maximizes logarithmic utility is approximately the one which lies on the greatest G curve. Because of the convexity of the curve of efficient portfolios and the concavity of the G curves, the (E, a) value where this occurs is unique. The approximation to G breaks down badly in some significant practical settings, including that of the next section. But for portfolios with large numbers of "typical" securities, the approximation for G will generally provide an (efficient) portfolio which approximately maximizes asset growth. This solves the portfolio manager's problem of which Markowitz-efficient portfolio to choose. Also, if he repeatedly chooses his portfolio in successive time periods by this criterion, he will tend to maximize the rate of growth of his assets, i.e., maximize "performance." We see also that in this instance the problem is reduced to that of finding the Markowitz-efficient portfolios plus the easy step of using Fig. 1. Thus if the Markowitz theory can be applied in practice in this setting, so can our theory. We have already remarked on the ambiguity of the set of efficient portfolios, and how our theory resolves them. To illustrate further that such ambiguity represents a defect in the Markowitz theory, let Xt be uniformly distributed over [1, 3], let X2 be uniformly distributed over [10, 100], let cor (Xl,X2) = 1, and suppose these are the only securities. Then X^ and X2 are both efficient with c, < cr2 and £, < E2 so the Markowitz theory does not choose between them. Yet "everyone" would choose X2 over Xx because the worst outcome with X2 is far 608 PART V DYNAMIC MODELS
PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 G = 0 G'0.\ 6 = 0.2
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STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION MODELS IN F
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STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION MODELS IN F
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Dedicated to the memory of my fathe
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PART II. QUALITATIVE ECONOMIC RESUL
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2. Risk Aversion over Time Implies
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PREFACE AND BRIEF NOTES TO THE 2006
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and shows that current research in
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1990. This area presages the CVaR l
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transaction cost band. Most such mo
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through targets and are less sensit
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ing dates, the papers by Breiman, H
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Carino, D. and W.T. Ziemba (1998).
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Kallberg, J.G. and W.T. Ziemba (198
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Stone, D. and W.T. Ziemba (1993). L
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PREFACE IN 1975 EDITION There is no
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particular results are generally st
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Part I Mathematical Tools
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wealth, then his utility function m
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cases in Exercise CR-12. The relati
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However, some extensions to infinit
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1. EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY The Anna
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SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES ANT EXPECT
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SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND EXPECT
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282 O. L. MANGA3ARIAN" for every X
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284 O. L. MANGASARIAN We have from
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280 O. L. MANQASARIAN For the case
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288 O. L. MANGASAMAN Proof. Conside
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290 O. L. MANGASARIAN Second Berkel
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denotes the /w-dimensional vector o
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Proof (I) We shall prove this part
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(Ill) have not, to the author's kno
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for the case (3); and for the case
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3. DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING Introduction
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INTRODUCTION TO DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING
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COMPUTATIONAL AND REVIEW EXERCISES
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(d) xxx2 on E+ 2 = {x\xt = 0, x2 S
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Show that the Kuhn-Tucker condition
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(a) Show that/, (b, c) = gt (Z>, c)
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(c) Show that the monotonicity assu
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An individual's preferences are sai
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12. (Hessians, bordered Hessians, c
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The problem in (b)-(c) hints that t
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(1) Suppose/is twice continuously d
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(f) Assume that R(i,a) g 0 and the
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(j) Show that an optimal policy Va
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INTRODUCTION In the second part of
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andom variables when the utility fu
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detailed analysis of the qualitativ
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separation in a local sense (for al
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1. STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE G. Hanoch a
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But now, EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF CHO
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EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF CHOICES INVO
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A Unified Approach to Stochastic Do
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A UNIFIED APPROACH TO STOCHASTIC DO
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RISK AVERSION 123 a given risk the
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RISK AVERSION 125 If z is actuarial
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RISK AVERSION 127 4. CONCAVITY The
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To show that (a) implies (d), note
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RISK AVERSION 131 (b') The risk pre
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9.2. Example 2. If (30) u'(x)=(x°
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RISK AVERSION 135 12. INCREASING AN
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ADDENDUM In retrospect, 1 wish foot
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14 THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STAT
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Separation in Portfolio Analysis R.
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SEPARATION IN PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS an
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SEPARATION IN PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS II
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SEPARATION IN PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS Th
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SEPARATION IN PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS Ca
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SEPARATION IN PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS It
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SEPARATION IN PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS th
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7. Consider an investor having the
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Then eliminate p from (2) to obtain
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(a) Show that an indifference curve
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(d) Develop a similar result to (c)
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Exercise Source Notes Exercise 1 wa
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(f) Show that k > 0. [Note (Exercis
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(c) Interpret (b). (d) Illustrate s
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9. Let the partial relative risk-av
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Condition (iv) is called the "no-ea
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Then * ( 8xj \ V - s u = \-r-\ -ax,
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exhibiting decreasing absolute and
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(a) Determine necessary and suffici
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Let the random variables Og^Sl and
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Part III Static Portfolio Selection
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given parameter. Exercise ME-30 dev
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utility function. However, many con
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the characteristic exponent is 2 (i
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proportions to maximize expected ut
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investment returns are always nonne
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case to a case of one riskless and
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538 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES Howe
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540 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES wher
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542 REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES expa
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JAMES A. OHLSON that quadratic util
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JAMES A. OHLSON Assumptions A1-A3 a
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JAMES A. OHLSON (i) snpl/ieSi\U (3)
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JAMES A. OHLSON A number of interes
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JAMES A. OHLSON for all y,teSx'3C{Q
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Since Z"=o^( w »0 = 0 and/(«,«)
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JAMES A. OHLSON analysis here is "o
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Choosing Investment Portfolios When
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS univ
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS The/
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Tobi
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS a-di
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Henc
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Lemm
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS ID.
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Proo
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS is c
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS Proo
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CHOOSING INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS 3. C
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2. EXISTENCE AND DIVERSIFICATION OF
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ON THE EXISTENCE OF OPTIMAL POLICIE
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Reprinted from Journal of Financial
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Remarks: Differentiability assumpti
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distributed from the rest. Then an
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x * "22 "12 1 " (o22- a12) + (0n -
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to decline — as if having more mo
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solved for as a function 8.(y,0"),
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FOOTNOTES 1. H. Makower and J. Mars
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264 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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274 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OP ECONOMICS
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280 QVABTBRLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
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Reprinted from THE REVIEW OF ECONOM
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(1.1) and (1.2) give SOME EFFECTS O
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SOME EFFECTS OF TAXES ON RISK-TAKIN
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REFERENCES SOME EFFECTS OF TAXES ON
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and a gamble is offered that return
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among two risky assets and a riskle
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Consider problem (1) and suppose th
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21. Let pi,...,p„ be joint-normal
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Consider the following four utility
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4. In most stochastic optimizing mo
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(g) Discuss the use of semivariance
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(a) Suppose that the investor alloc
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The linear programming subproblems
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(f) Show that (j> is proportional t
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(e) Show that X has mean and varian
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(i) Show that for all Aru ...,km, t
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Some properties of the expected val
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(i) Suppose that V0 is positive def
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where V is the gradient operator an
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and where Z, Ylt...,Ym are independ
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INTRODUCTION This part of the book
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some qualitative characteristics of
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function of wealth. Hence the optim
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INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER UNCERTAIN
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P if and only if INVESTMENT ANALYSI
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INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDEB UNCERTAIN
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2. RISK AVERSION OVER TIME IMPLIES
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ables at t, and the primed variable
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ehavior in choosing among timeless
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is to asume that the consumer behav
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The function t/,(C,_,, wt|a,, ft) i
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sumption, given state j3,+i at r+l,
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3. MYOPIC PORTFOLIO POLICIES Reprin
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326 THE JOURNAL OF BUSINESS this op
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328 THE JOURNAL OF BUSINESS with th
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330 THE JOURNAL OF BUSINESS In sum
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332 THE JOURNAL OF BUSINESS subject
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334 THE JOURNAL OF BUSINESS myopic
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where and k" 1 f (Mt-Ui) 2 4k {Oi 1
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MIND-EXPANDING EXERCISES 1. Conside
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(i.e., partial separability) and #,
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(c) Discuss the solution properties
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(d) By differentiating (cl) and (c2
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Let U be the utility function for t
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INTRODUCTION I. Two-Period Consumpt
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asked to develop explicit solutions
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that the property of nonincreasing
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The Hakansson paper studies a gener
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In the Samuelson-Hakansson additive
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techniques. The article by Breiman
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enously). These requirements are to
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in general, a monotonic function of
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ergodic theory, the book by Breiman
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or less than u; either do nothing o
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ME-24 the reader is invited to cons
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In discrete time, a nonnegative lin
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R. G. VICKSON This must not be inte
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This gives with R. G. VICKSON t(t)
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TWO-PERIOD CONSUMPTION MODELS AND P
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310 DRfeZE AND MODIGLIANI second or
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312 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI Had the sa
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314 DRfezE AND MODIGLIANI (— U^U^
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316 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI ure for te
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318 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI income sid
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320 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI (3.5) The
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322 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI Consumptio
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324 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI in (cj, c2
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326 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI Since d^Uj
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328 DREZE AND MODIGLIANI On the rig
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330 DRfeZE AND MODIGLIANI and its p
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332 DREZE AND M0DIGLIAN1 LEMMA C.2.
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334 DRfeZE AND MOD1GLIANI if the sm
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MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Vol. 19, No. 2,
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A DYNAMIC MODEL FOR BOND PORTFOLIO
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Maximize A DYNAMIC MODEL FOE BOND P
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MULTIPERIOD RISK PREFERENCE 41 mode
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MULTIPERIOD RISK PREFERENCE 43 The
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MULT1PERI0D RISK PREFERENCE between
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MULTIPERIOD RISK PREFERENCE 47 (ii)
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MULTIPERIOD RISK PREFERENCE 49 that
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or if s"(s' MULTIPERIOD RISK PREFER
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MULTIPERIOD RISK PREFERENCE 53 5. C
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Reprinted from The Review of Econom
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the risky asset, with 1 — w, goin
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w*t = glW,;Z,-1,...,Z0] = gT_i[W>]
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Since proof of the theorem is strai
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E C O N O M E T R I C A VOLUME 38 S
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OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 589 M: the numbe
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OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 591 For comparis
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(ii) in the case of Model III, 1 1
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Let Then OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 595 *.=
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where OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 597 (41) T
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where (54) T(x) = sup \ log c + log
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where b(v*) is the greatest lower b
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OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 603 noncapital i
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OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 605 Let us now t
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OPTIMAL INVESTMENT 607 REFERENCES [
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present value. Let ( be time, r the
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constant or decrease at a constant
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Denote the vector in the parenthese
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112 HOWARD M. TAYLOB easy to pictur
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114 HOWARD M. TAYLOR market and ign
Page 594 and 595: 116 HOWARD M. TAYLOR the investor w
Page 596 and 597: 118 HOWARD M. TAYLOR option which a
Page 598 and 599: 120 HOWARD M. TAYLOR 3. BR.VDA, J.
Page 600 and 601: 172 BASIL A. KALYMON more general p
Page 602 and 603: 174 BASIL A. KALYMON The three case
Page 604 and 605: 176 BASIL A. KALYMON an additional
Page 606 and 607: 178 BASIL A. KALYMON (24) d\ = r -
Page 608 and 609: 180 BASIL A. KALYMON The above resu
Page 610 and 611: 182 BASIL A. KALYMON PROOF. First w
Page 613 and 614: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Vol. 17, No. 7,
Page 615 and 616: M1NIMAX POLICIES FOB SELLING AN ASS
Page 617 and 618: MINIMAX POLICIES FOB SELLING AN ASS
Page 619 and 620: MINIMAX POLICIES FOR SELLING AN ASS
Page 621 and 622: MINIMAX POLICIES FOR SELLING AN ASS
Page 623 and 624: MINIMAX POLICIES TOR SELLING AN ASS
Page 625 and 626: MINIMAX POLICIES FOB SELLING AN ASS
Page 627: MINIMAX POLICIES FOR SELLING AN ASS
Page 630 and 631: 648 L. BREIMAN We have discussed th
Page 632 and 633: 650 L. BREIMAN Hence, it is suffici
Page 634 and 635: (a.s.) on the set lim XN < oo > u <
Page 636 and 637: EDWARD O. THORP method to this arti
Page 638 and 639: EDWARD O. THORP drastic simplificat
Page 640 and 641: EDWARD O. THORP us is that the prop
Page 642 and 643: EDWARD O. THORP Let the range of Rj
Page 646 and 647: EDWARD O. THORP choosing P in repea
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Page 650 and 651: EDWARD O. THORP it is plausible to
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Page 657 and 658: Reprinted from JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC
Page 659 and 660: CONSUMPTION AND PORTFOLIO RULES 375
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CONSUMPTION AND PORTFOLIO RULES 411
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CONSUMPTION AND PORTFOLIO RULES 413
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(d) Suppose n > r2. Formulate the o
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(j) Show that the absolute risk-ave
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The optimal first-period decision a
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(b) Show that the optimal policy in
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the game is stationary and favorabl
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(v) UHEV-E^CV-Af- 1 )^ w, V&0, w>0,
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MIND-EXPANDING EXERCISES 1. Conside
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Note the following distinction betw
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(e) Discuss the computational aspec
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(a) Show that U obeys the functiona
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(g) If ;ij(0) > 0 (1 g; g N), show
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Note that problem P2 has 3(N- 1)+1
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Note that (f) and (g) imply the exi
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P = (Pu), where pu = P[X„+l =j\ X
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(a) Show that {X„} is a stationar
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(b) Show that T T u = a + b Y[ c\'
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(b) Interpret this assumption. Is i
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(d) Show that (c) may be written as
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Bibliography Journal Abbreviations
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BHARUCHA-REID, A. T. (1960). Elemen
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FIACCO, A. V., and MCCORMICK, G. P.
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IGLEHART, D. (1965). "Capital accum
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MANGASARIAN, O. L. (1966). "Suffici
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PORTEUS, E. L. (1972). "Equivalent
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THOMASION, A. J. (1969). The Struct
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A Absolute risk aversion, 84, 85, 9
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Logarithmic utility functions, see
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V Value of information, 462-467, 68
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